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How dangerous are untested vaccines and what would be the worst case scenario?

by nojs 6y ago

rasz 6y ago
zombies
disgruntledphd2 6y ago
Billions of people getting whatever the hell the post-Covid fatigue thing is.
rsynnott 6y ago
This was probably the worst so far: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy Note that the worst long-term outcome of this was probably decline in trust of vaccines. Government regulators are in a position of significant trust on this stuff, and the consequences if that was damaged would be disastrous.
querez 6y ago
Unlikely worst case: there are rare side-effects that get only discovered very late. For example: 70% of those who get the vaccine develops liver complications within 3 years and 60% die a horrible death with no way to cure. Or every women who gets the vaccine becomes infertile within a decade. This is super unlikely, and moreover could only partially detected in a Phase 3. But the longer you give people to look for such complications, the more likely that they're discovered before mass-application. Realistic worst case: there are some minor complications, and some people will get hurt. This has happened before: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.... , which is why we have such strict guidelines for vaccine development today. Realistic bad case: the vaccine is not at all effective and does absolutely not protect from (re-)infection, but gives everyone post-covid19-fatigue. It will also be giving anti-vaxxers actual arguments and getting Trump re-elected.
- _-___________-_ 6y ago
  Honestly, is it really worth throwing away the strict guidelines for this?
daurnimator 6y ago
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2928990/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2928990/ > nearly 400,000 children had been inoculated with Cutter polio vaccine and 250 cases of atypical paralytic polio occurred. There were also reports of the Wyeth pharmaceutical company polio vaccine causing paralysis and death in several children in the northeastern United States. 19 , 21 > It was soon discovered that some lots of Cutter and Wyeth polio vaccine were insufficiently inactivated with formalin leading to live polio virus in more than 100,000 doses. In fact, 16 lots of Cutter polio vaccine were retested and the first six lots produced were positive for live polio virus. These incidents demonstrated the lack of oversight and safeguards put into place before the vaccine was made so widely available.

How dangerous are untested vaccines and what would be the worst case scenario?

by nojs 6y ago

How dangerous are untested vaccines and what would be the worst case scenario?

rasz 6y ago

zombies

disgruntledphd2 6y ago

Billions of people getting whatever the hell the post-Covid fatigue thing is.

rsynnott 6y ago

This was probably the worst so far: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy Note that the worst long-term outcome of this was probably decline in trust of vaccines. Government regulators are in a position of significant trust on this stuff, and the consequences if that was damaged would be disastrous.

querez 6y ago

Unlikely worst case: there are rare side-effects that get only discovered very late. For example: 70% of those who get the vaccine develops liver complications within 3 years and 60% die a horrible death with no way to cure. Or every women who gets the vaccine becomes infertile within a decade. This is super unlikely, and moreover could only partially detected in a Phase 3. But the longer you give people to look for such complications, the more likely that they're discovered before mass-application. Realistic worst case: there are some minor complications, and some people will get hurt. This has happened before: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.... , which is why we have such strict guidelines for vaccine development today. Realistic bad case: the vaccine is not at all effective and does absolutely not protect from (re-)infection, but gives everyone post-covid19-fatigue. It will also be giving anti-vaxxers actual arguments and getting Trump re-elected.

_-___________-_ 6y ago
Honestly, is it really worth throwing away the strict guidelines for this?

daurnimator 6y ago

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2928990/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2928990/ > nearly 400,000 children had been inoculated with Cutter polio vaccine and 250 cases of atypical paralytic polio occurred. There were also reports of the Wyeth pharmaceutical company polio vaccine causing paralysis and death in several children in the northeastern United States. 19 , 21 > It was soon discovered that some lots of Cutter and Wyeth polio vaccine were insufficiently inactivated with formalin leading to live polio virus in more than 100,000 doses. In fact, 16 lots of Cutter polio vaccine were retested and the first six lots produced were positive for live polio virus. These incidents demonstrated the lack of oversight and safeguards put into place before the vaccine was made so widely available.