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You just can't falsify a medical diagnosis and would you rather have a Prime Minister leading the country despite deteriorating health? Japan's COVID-19 situati

You just can't falsify a medical diagnosis and would you rather have a Prime Minister leading the country despite deteriorating health? Japan's COVID-19 situation is still way better than most countries. Whether it will hold is anyone's guess but he's not fit enough to make big decisions and at some point Japan might need another lock down. I will say that I don't trust the LDP to rise above their internal bickering and backroom politics to choose someone capable of handling this pandemic but that is neither here nor there. We will find out soon. There really isn't any stand out for LDP leadership post Abe and that's something that deeply concerns me.

gridlockd 6y ago
I think Japan shows that political leadership, of all factors, has minimal impact on COVID-19 outcome. The Japanese government did almost nothing and got away with it.
- jiggawatts 6y ago
  They didn't have to, because much of their population already follows "COVID-safe" practices. A large fraction wears facemasks in public and especially on public transport. They bow instead of shaking hands. They don't kiss acquaintances on the face, unlike say the custom in parts of the middle east. They're very hygienic, even taking their shoes off when entering a home. Food workers wear masks and gloves. So do taxi and bus drivers. Etc, etc... A full lockdown on top of this would have unnecessarily harmed their economy with little medical benefit.
  - greggman3 6y ago
    so many mis-conceptions. Japanese don't all wear masks. They all had experience wearing them but it wasn't common to see more than 5% of people wearing them at any one time until Covid Japan is not remotely hygienic. Most hospitals and doctor's offices would be shut down by the health inspectors in the USA. I've seen all kinds of disgustingly dirty beds, cabinets, shelves, tables, and equipment in my 14 years here. Most restaurants as well. It was only covid that finally got them to cover food items at bakeries and buffets. It's easy to lose your appetite when you see kids sneezing on all the food. And for the last 2/2.5 months the country has seemed mostly not caring about Covid. People are partying at bars, restaurants, and coffee shops and their masks are off. Clubs are even open. Something else must explain why Covid hasn't been bigger here but it is not hygiene
    - dependenttypes 6y ago
      > Most restaurants as well You should check UK out then. They love to handle food and money at the same time with their bare hands.
    - mattm 6y ago
      Japanese don't all wear masks but it's the cultural norm that if you feel bad you wear a mask. I would think that custom would help stop the spread. It's not necessary that everyone wear masks, only the people that have COVID.
      - gridlockd 6y ago
        Fair enough, but most cases of COVID are largely asymptomatic and the infectiousness has its peak right before symptom onset.
        Aeolun 6y ago
        Yeah, and ever since that became clear everyone has been wearing a mask pretty much all the time. They might be sloppy about it and hang it halfway down their nose, but they still won’t be seen without one. Until summer anyway, now it’s just too hot, but the heatstroke count is still way up due to people wearing masks.
    - nl 6y ago
      I agree with this entirely. I've been to Japan and can confirm it isn't noticeably more clean than most rich cities and certainly not as clean as Singapore (for example) I've dug into this in some depth and there is no convincing explanation. Even "luck" (which is a much underestimated factor in initial breakout dynamics) doesn't seem to explain it - unless they are persistently lucky somehow. There's something else going on and no one really knows what it is. There is plenty of speculation, but nothing that is even close to an accepted explanation.
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        I happened to see a chart showing that among wealthy countries, the US is at the top for obesity and Japan is at the bottom. Just a correlated random fact that nobody knows the cause of either. Maybe something about fish consumption?
  - dmurray 6y ago
    These are all great post hoc arguments, but we could equally well list factors that point the other way. They have very dense cities and packed public transport. They have a culture of presenteeism that discourages sick leave and working from home. They have one of the most elderly-heavy populations in the world. Etc... Regardless, it does seem like GP's point is correct. The political leadership isn't necessarily what makes a difference: it's all of the other factors.
Aeolun 6y ago
> You just can't falsify a medical diagnosis and would you rather have a Prime Minister leading the country despite deteriorating health? No, you are totally right. I never said it was rational :) My guess is the disease is playing up again now due to the stress he’s under. > There really isn't any stand out for LDP leadership post Abe and that's something that deeply concerns me. Yeah, I happen to agree with that, which might be what makes me so uncomfortable with him leaving. He might not have been great, but things have unarguably been stable.

gridlockd 6y ago

I think Japan shows that political leadership, of all factors, has minimal impact on COVID-19 outcome. The Japanese government did almost nothing and got away with it.

jiggawatts 6y ago
They didn't have to, because much of their population already follows "COVID-safe" practices. A large fraction wears facemasks in public and especially on public transport. They bow instead of shaking hands. They don't kiss acquaintances on the face, unlike say the custom in parts of the middle east. They're very hygienic, even taking their shoes off when entering a home. Food workers wear masks and gloves. So do taxi and bus drivers. Etc, etc... A full lockdown on top of this would have unnecessarily harmed their economy with little medical benefit.
- greggman3 6y ago
  so many mis-conceptions. Japanese don't all wear masks. They all had experience wearing them but it wasn't common to see more than 5% of people wearing them at any one time until Covid Japan is not remotely hygienic. Most hospitals and doctor's offices would be shut down by the health inspectors in the USA. I've seen all kinds of disgustingly dirty beds, cabinets, shelves, tables, and equipment in my 14 years here. Most restaurants as well. It was only covid that finally got them to cover food items at bakeries and buffets. It's easy to lose your appetite when you see kids sneezing on all the food. And for the last 2/2.5 months the country has seemed mostly not caring about Covid. People are partying at bars, restaurants, and coffee shops and their masks are off. Clubs are even open. Something else must explain why Covid hasn't been bigger here but it is not hygiene
  - dependenttypes 6y ago
    > Most restaurants as well You should check UK out then. They love to handle food and money at the same time with their bare hands.
  - mattm 6y ago
    Japanese don't all wear masks but it's the cultural norm that if you feel bad you wear a mask. I would think that custom would help stop the spread. It's not necessary that everyone wear masks, only the people that have COVID.
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      Fair enough, but most cases of COVID are largely asymptomatic and the infectiousness has its peak right before symptom onset.
      - Aeolun 6y ago
        Yeah, and ever since that became clear everyone has been wearing a mask pretty much all the time. They might be sloppy about it and hang it halfway down their nose, but they still won’t be seen without one. Until summer anyway, now it’s just too hot, but the heatstroke count is still way up due to people wearing masks.
  - nl 6y ago
    I agree with this entirely. I've been to Japan and can confirm it isn't noticeably more clean than most rich cities and certainly not as clean as Singapore (for example) I've dug into this in some depth and there is no convincing explanation. Even "luck" (which is a much underestimated factor in initial breakout dynamics) doesn't seem to explain it - unless they are persistently lucky somehow. There's something else going on and no one really knows what it is. There is plenty of speculation, but nothing that is even close to an accepted explanation.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      I happened to see a chart showing that among wealthy countries, the US is at the top for obesity and Japan is at the bottom. Just a correlated random fact that nobody knows the cause of either. Maybe something about fish consumption?
- dmurray 6y ago
  These are all great post hoc arguments, but we could equally well list factors that point the other way. They have very dense cities and packed public transport. They have a culture of presenteeism that discourages sick leave and working from home. They have one of the most elderly-heavy populations in the world. Etc... Regardless, it does seem like GP's point is correct. The political leadership isn't necessarily what makes a difference: it's all of the other factors.

Aeolun 6y ago

> You just can't falsify a medical diagnosis and would you rather have a Prime Minister leading the country despite deteriorating health? No, you are totally right. I never said it was rational :) My guess is the disease is playing up again now due to the stress he’s under. > There really isn't any stand out for LDP leadership post Abe and that's something that deeply concerns me. Yeah, I happen to agree with that, which might be what makes me so uncomfortable with him leaving. He might not have been great, but things have unarguably been stable.