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Would it make sense to short TSLA? One thing going for Tesla is their supercharger network and huge bets on fleet data collection to improve their AI/SD capabil

Would it make sense to short TSLA? One thing going for Tesla is their supercharger network and huge bets on fleet data collection to improve their AI/SD capabilities. Also, Tesla is vertically integrated in terms of battery + car + SDS + SDS hardware (in house silicon). Does that warrant such an insane stock price even accounting for future revenue forecasts and margins?

nprateem 6y ago
The only way to get full adoption is to standardise chargers same as with eg USB. Expect the EU to legislate if they haven't already. That'll kill Tesla's network advantage.
- akmarinov 6y ago
  No, it won’t. Tesla already uses the established CCS standard for their chargers and cars in Europe. That makes it possible for Teslas to charge at other highspeed chargers, but only Teslas can charge at superchargers since they communicate with the car and reject all non-Teslas. To their credit Tesla has a standing invitation to share their supercharger network with other manufacturers, though none have taken them up on on the offer, perhaps the terms are harsh.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    > To their credit Tesla has a standing invitation to share their supercharger network with other manufacturers Why does there need to be an invitation? Tesla can open their network to all EVs right now, just like all the other charging networks have. Tesla says their mission is to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If that's true, then why isn't their network open to all EVs?
    - akmarinov 6y ago
      I believe some integration is required, since the billing for the used power happens via the car on Tesla's end, not the at the supercharger itself. Also they've invested quite a bit in the network, some fee to use it for other manufacturers is in order. And if we're going with the accelerating sustainable transport argument - where do we draw the line? Why not just give away EVs to everyone at no cost?
      - clouddrover 6y ago
        > I believe some integration is required European charging networks are integrated with roaming and aggregated billing already. This is not novel. If they can do it, why not Tesla? > Also they've invested quite a bit in the network So has everyone else and yet Teslas charge on their networks right now. If they can do it, why not Tesla? > Why not just give away EVs to everyone at no cost? Because companies want to make money. Who ever said anything about offering free charging or free cars?
        akmarinov 6y ago
        > Because companies want to make money. Why would you expect them to open up their network then? Currently it's a competitive advantage, making their cars much more likely to be bought with long trips in mind.
        clouddrover 6y ago
        Because of their claimed mission. Tesla's network charging all EVs is not incompatible with Tesla making money. Open infrastructure is plainly better than closed infrastructure. Do you want the internet or do you want AOL? Closed infrastructure is not in your best interest as a car owner. All charging sites charging all brands of EVs, just like all fuel stations fuel all brands of ICE vehicles, is better for you and everyone else.
  - PeterStuer 6y ago
    I can not imagine how allowing brand exclusive charging stations can be in the public interest.
klodolph 6y ago
No, you'd be insane to make bets on Tesla, for the simple reason that there are a lot of people making crazy bets on Tesla. If you want to short TSLA you'd have to hold that position long enough for the market to realize that you're right... that may take a long time, and you may not make it.
- rumanator 6y ago
  > No, you'd be insane to make bets on Tesla, for the simple reason that there are a lot of people making crazy bets on Tesla. Sounds like a Ponzi scheme.
  - thefounder 6y ago
    It's more like a lottery because you "know" what you are doing
    - rumanator 6y ago
      > It's more like a lottery because you "know" the what you are doing So do Ponzi-scheme victims.
  - harry8 6y ago
    I make no comment at all on TSLA. Shorting a ponzi scheme in general isn't simply a bet that you have correctly identified that the scheme exists. It is a bet on /when/ the scheme will collapse. Dotcom boom 1.0 was called a bubble (different name, same smell) by plenty of people who did their shirts on it. They were right. The valuations of all those dotcoms were ridiculous. I'm not sure many of those stocks are still around. Altavista, yahoo, bajizoobmalimba.com, walkyourdog.com etc etc. Going long you can easily play the long game. "I'm not vindicated yet, but this is good, I can wait." Going short is not a symmetric position the other way.
- systemvoltage 6y ago
  So then, what is a signal to go short on TSLA? It seems like no matter how irrational TSLA gets, there is always someone like yourself with a cliche defense with the exact same logic, no offense meant to you. By your logic, does that mean that a company can do anything crazy and insane - and it makes no sense to buy puts against TSLA...ever?
blueblisters 6y ago
When experienced traders decide to short a stock, they usually have non-obvious information about an event that will precipitate in the near future that will make the stock price drop meaningfully. Do you believe such an event is going to happen within a specific time-frame? Then yes, by all means, you should short the stock. I think all the things you mentioned are reasons not to buy the stock at its current valuation.

nprateem 6y ago

The only way to get full adoption is to standardise chargers same as with eg USB. Expect the EU to legislate if they haven't already. That'll kill Tesla's network advantage.

akmarinov 6y ago
No, it won’t. Tesla already uses the established CCS standard for their chargers and cars in Europe. That makes it possible for Teslas to charge at other highspeed chargers, but only Teslas can charge at superchargers since they communicate with the car and reject all non-Teslas. To their credit Tesla has a standing invitation to share their supercharger network with other manufacturers, though none have taken them up on on the offer, perhaps the terms are harsh.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  > To their credit Tesla has a standing invitation to share their supercharger network with other manufacturers Why does there need to be an invitation? Tesla can open their network to all EVs right now, just like all the other charging networks have. Tesla says their mission is to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If that's true, then why isn't their network open to all EVs?
  - akmarinov 6y ago
    I believe some integration is required, since the billing for the used power happens via the car on Tesla's end, not the at the supercharger itself. Also they've invested quite a bit in the network, some fee to use it for other manufacturers is in order. And if we're going with the accelerating sustainable transport argument - where do we draw the line? Why not just give away EVs to everyone at no cost?
    - clouddrover 6y ago
      > I believe some integration is required European charging networks are integrated with roaming and aggregated billing already. This is not novel. If they can do it, why not Tesla? > Also they've invested quite a bit in the network So has everyone else and yet Teslas charge on their networks right now. If they can do it, why not Tesla? > Why not just give away EVs to everyone at no cost? Because companies want to make money. Who ever said anything about offering free charging or free cars?
      - akmarinov 6y ago
        > Because companies want to make money. Why would you expect them to open up their network then? Currently it's a competitive advantage, making their cars much more likely to be bought with long trips in mind.
        clouddrover 6y ago
        Because of their claimed mission. Tesla's network charging all EVs is not incompatible with Tesla making money. Open infrastructure is plainly better than closed infrastructure. Do you want the internet or do you want AOL? Closed infrastructure is not in your best interest as a car owner. All charging sites charging all brands of EVs, just like all fuel stations fuel all brands of ICE vehicles, is better for you and everyone else.
- PeterStuer 6y ago
  I can not imagine how allowing brand exclusive charging stations can be in the public interest.

klodolph 6y ago

No, you'd be insane to make bets on Tesla, for the simple reason that there are a lot of people making crazy bets on Tesla. If you want to short TSLA you'd have to hold that position long enough for the market to realize that you're right... that may take a long time, and you may not make it.

rumanator 6y ago
> No, you'd be insane to make bets on Tesla, for the simple reason that there are a lot of people making crazy bets on Tesla. Sounds like a Ponzi scheme.
- thefounder 6y ago
  It's more like a lottery because you "know" what you are doing
  - rumanator 6y ago
    > It's more like a lottery because you "know" the what you are doing So do Ponzi-scheme victims.
- harry8 6y ago
  I make no comment at all on TSLA. Shorting a ponzi scheme in general isn't simply a bet that you have correctly identified that the scheme exists. It is a bet on /when/ the scheme will collapse. Dotcom boom 1.0 was called a bubble (different name, same smell) by plenty of people who did their shirts on it. They were right. The valuations of all those dotcoms were ridiculous. I'm not sure many of those stocks are still around. Altavista, yahoo, bajizoobmalimba.com, walkyourdog.com etc etc. Going long you can easily play the long game. "I'm not vindicated yet, but this is good, I can wait." Going short is not a symmetric position the other way.
systemvoltage 6y ago
So then, what is a signal to go short on TSLA? It seems like no matter how irrational TSLA gets, there is always someone like yourself with a cliche defense with the exact same logic, no offense meant to you. By your logic, does that mean that a company can do anything crazy and insane - and it makes no sense to buy puts against TSLA...ever?

blueblisters 6y ago

When experienced traders decide to short a stock, they usually have non-obvious information about an event that will precipitate in the near future that will make the stock price drop meaningfully. Do you believe such an event is going to happen within a specific time-frame? Then yes, by all means, you should short the stock. I think all the things you mentioned are reasons not to buy the stock at its current valuation.