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>>And growth shouldn’t be used as an input to an estimate of demand because growth itself depends on supply This is famously untrue with housing. Because it's

>>And growth shouldn’t be used as an input to an estimate of demand because growth itself depends on supply This is famously untrue with housing. Because it's so hard to match units demanded to units built, housing growth nearly always precedes demand. How? By leaning on estimates of demand (in-migration, etc.), which I mentioned above. And those estimates are almost always severe overestimates.

imtringued 6y ago
Do you not know basic economics? If I can build a house for $500000 and sell it for $600000 I'm going to build a house. I don't give single damn if someone makes up random numbers. All I have to care about is whether I can find a buyer. Looking for a buyer is equivalent to looking for demand. Every time someone talks about something as brain dead as saying housing growth precedes demand they are just showing off their loyality to their political "tribe" because there is not enough ignorance in this world to believe something this stupid. Do you know what 25 year olds are going to do if housing is too expensive but their parents have a nice 2500sqft house that they refuse to sell? They are going to stay at their parents house or live with a room mate because that's what they have been forced to do. If you build a house/apartment of course it is going to be filled immediately because there are already people in the city who are waiting for you to build the damn house. Not a single person has to migrate or come from a different region. When you are saying "housing growth precedes demand" you are actually talking about "pent up demand" over several decades but trying to hide it via political speech with an agenda behind it. It's basically equivalent to saying "we have screwed up for 50 years now it's going to take decades to clean up the mess we have created so why bother? Let's just blame the few remaining people who are doing their part to fix this mess for causing the problems we have created.".
shuckles 6y ago
You have no evidence for your last statement. Did Portland build empty units for the million people who never showed up but were expected to?
jcranmer 6y ago
> And those estimates are almost always severe overestimates. Based on my own experiences with house-hunting, there is a severe lack of supply of houses rather than the opposite.
jeffbee 6y ago
> famously untrue """This suggests that consumption leads production during neighbourhood gentrification, and that developers are reactive, not proactive, in their investment decisions.""" https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042098020940596 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/004209802094059...

imtringued 6y ago

Do you not know basic economics? If I can build a house for $500000 and sell it for $600000 I'm going to build a house. I don't give single damn if someone makes up random numbers. All I have to care about is whether I can find a buyer. Looking for a buyer is equivalent to looking for demand. Every time someone talks about something as brain dead as saying housing growth precedes demand they are just showing off their loyality to their political "tribe" because there is not enough ignorance in this world to believe something this stupid. Do you know what 25 year olds are going to do if housing is too expensive but their parents have a nice 2500sqft house that they refuse to sell? They are going to stay at their parents house or live with a room mate because that's what they have been forced to do. If you build a house/apartment of course it is going to be filled immediately because there are already people in the city who are waiting for you to build the damn house. Not a single person has to migrate or come from a different region. When you are saying "housing growth precedes demand" you are actually talking about "pent up demand" over several decades but trying to hide it via political speech with an agenda behind it. It's basically equivalent to saying "we have screwed up for 50 years now it's going to take decades to clean up the mess we have created so why bother? Let's just blame the few remaining people who are doing their part to fix this mess for causing the problems we have created.".

shuckles 6y ago

You have no evidence for your last statement. Did Portland build empty units for the million people who never showed up but were expected to?

jcranmer 6y ago

> And those estimates are almost always severe overestimates. Based on my own experiences with house-hunting, there is a severe lack of supply of houses rather than the opposite.

jeffbee 6y ago

> famously untrue """This suggests that consumption leads production during neighbourhood gentrification, and that developers are reactive, not proactive, in their investment decisions.""" https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042098020940596 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/004209802094059...