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> Getting below $100/KWh will reduce EV price to FAR below ICE vehicles; LFP cells with volume discounts were already sold for less than $100/KWh for a few yea

> Getting below $100/KWh will reduce EV price to FAR below ICE vehicles; LFP cells with volume discounts were already sold for less than $100/KWh for a few years. Not much changed. Cheapest EVs in developed countries have passed the $20k barrier, but I don't see everybody falling for EVs. The type of people who are happy to have just anything to drive buy into something like https://runhorse2020.en.made-in-china.com/product/uwcniFmDXJVs/China-New-Green-Energy-Car-EV-with-EEC-Approved.html https://runhorse2020.en.made-in-china.com/product/uwcniFmDXJ... But even they switch to cheapest, crappiest IC sedans starting at $7k in China (say thanks to $500 per ton steel)

imtringued 6y ago
The Renault ZOE is one of the most affordable EVs and it certainly didn't break the $20k barrier even with subsidies.
tachyonbeam 6y ago
Tesla is aiming for $100/KWh at the assembled battery pack level rather than just at the battery cell level, so that's a bit of a different milestone, but we're definitely getting there. > Cheapest EVs in developed countries have passed the $20k barrier, but I don't see everybody falling for EVs. AFAIK most of the EVs with a 200+ mile range are above 30K, even after incentives. Some of them are not that amazing either. It will take some time for the prices to come down more and for the offerings to improve. I rode in an VW E-Golf when I ordered an Uber the other day. The acceleration was great and it was a nice looking vehicle, but the base model is 32K and the range is just 125 miles.
- AgloeDreams 6y ago
  E-Golf is a really bad example as it's an old, ICE-based platform that is replaced by the ID 3. The current Leaf, Bolt, or ID 3 are much better examples. But you are right about the $30K line. I don't think Tesla will touch sub $30k for a LONG time, they are way too addicted to 'best'. Even the Model 3 price has increasingly became more expensive with hard efforts to backtrack the original price with an intent to up-sell aggressively and to hide the $35K model.
  - Shivetya 6y ago
    Bolt is just as bad as E-Golf, it was shoe horned into a Trax chassis and worse the Bolt EUV follow on vehicle is still saddled with slow charging.
    - AgloeDreams 6y ago
      I mean...not really. The Bolt has more than twice the range and the Chassis was clearly developed further for the Bolt. I'm not saying it's fantastic, I'm just saying that it's definitely closer than the E-Golf.
    - michaelmior 6y ago
      This surprises me as I know some very happy Volt owners and I assumed the Bolt would not be terribly different. I see a fair number of them at the charging stations at my workplace.
      - AgloeDreams 6y ago
        They were comparing the Bolt pretty unfairly, the Bolt has great range and doesn't suffer from any of the issues with the E-Golf.
ogre_codes 6y ago
> Cheapest EVs in developed countries have passed the $20k barrier, but I don't see everybody falling for EVs. Not sure what you mean here, EVs are easily the fastest growing auto-segment. Massive EV sales growth is why all the auto makers are pushing hard on their EV efforts. EVs aren't matching ICE vehicles in volume yet, but they are grabbing big market share where they offer competitive products. Look how quickly manufacturers jumped on making electric truck announcements once Tesla made it clear the Cybertruck was coming. From the looks of it, electric trucks are going to be big.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > Not sure what you mean here, EVs are easily the fastest growing auto-segment. Given that it grown from near zero after Tesla in markets which had zero EVs before, triple digit growth is not something extraordinary. In countries which already had some EV presence, hasn't been so spectacular.
  - beefield 6y ago
    I like to compare the growth rates to iPhone. Apple had never to consecutive full production years of iPhone with triple digit growth rates. And by all measures iPhone growth was explosive in the smartphone market. Given how much more difficult it is to scale car production than phone production, it is quite obvious that double digit growth is as high as it is going to get. But with even that growth rate, the market for new cars is going to look very different in ten years time.
    - jsight 6y ago
      Indeed, the old adage about people overestimating short term exponentials but underestimating long term exponentials remains true.
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    In the US—where Tesla has been established for over a decade—EV sales are the strongest growth segment in the auto industry. On top of Tesla's growth, Chevy has had tremendous success with the Bolt.
snovv_crash 6y ago
LFP has poor energy density compared to LiIon. It's great for static installations (powerwalls etc) but putting in cars, phones, drones etc is a fools errand.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Not so fast: 1. 170wh/kg cells were on the market for a few years (held them in my own hands,) and, allegedly, 200wh/kg cells are to come. 2. The lower gravimetric cell energy density is compensated by lower cooling requirements, higher volumetric density, and bigger maximum cell sizes. 3. LFP survive fast charging, and deep charge/discharge much better, and have more much better cycle life than anything else. This reduces the need in overprovisioning dramatically. All of this translate in quite good battery pack specs, and much lower cost.
  - snovv_crash 6y ago
    Anywhere I can buy these cells? (No, seriously). I haven't found anything despite a fair bit of searching. In comparison, I can order 18650 LiIons with 50% higher energy density right now, in pretty much any quantity or balance of discharge rate vs. capacity I want. BMCs are cheap and easily available. No supply chain worries. If I need to export I just buy in the destination country and build packs there.

imtringued 6y ago

The Renault ZOE is one of the most affordable EVs and it certainly didn't break the $20k barrier even with subsidies.

tachyonbeam 6y ago

Tesla is aiming for $100/KWh at the assembled battery pack level rather than just at the battery cell level, so that's a bit of a different milestone, but we're definitely getting there. > Cheapest EVs in developed countries have passed the $20k barrier, but I don't see everybody falling for EVs. AFAIK most of the EVs with a 200+ mile range are above 30K, even after incentives. Some of them are not that amazing either. It will take some time for the prices to come down more and for the offerings to improve. I rode in an VW E-Golf when I ordered an Uber the other day. The acceleration was great and it was a nice looking vehicle, but the base model is 32K and the range is just 125 miles.

AgloeDreams 6y ago
E-Golf is a really bad example as it's an old, ICE-based platform that is replaced by the ID 3. The current Leaf, Bolt, or ID 3 are much better examples. But you are right about the $30K line. I don't think Tesla will touch sub $30k for a LONG time, they are way too addicted to 'best'. Even the Model 3 price has increasingly became more expensive with hard efforts to backtrack the original price with an intent to up-sell aggressively and to hide the $35K model.
- Shivetya 6y ago
  Bolt is just as bad as E-Golf, it was shoe horned into a Trax chassis and worse the Bolt EUV follow on vehicle is still saddled with slow charging.
  - AgloeDreams 6y ago
    I mean...not really. The Bolt has more than twice the range and the Chassis was clearly developed further for the Bolt. I'm not saying it's fantastic, I'm just saying that it's definitely closer than the E-Golf.
  - michaelmior 6y ago
    This surprises me as I know some very happy Volt owners and I assumed the Bolt would not be terribly different. I see a fair number of them at the charging stations at my workplace.
    - AgloeDreams 6y ago
      They were comparing the Bolt pretty unfairly, the Bolt has great range and doesn't suffer from any of the issues with the E-Golf.

ogre_codes 6y ago

> Cheapest EVs in developed countries have passed the $20k barrier, but I don't see everybody falling for EVs. Not sure what you mean here, EVs are easily the fastest growing auto-segment. Massive EV sales growth is why all the auto makers are pushing hard on their EV efforts. EVs aren't matching ICE vehicles in volume yet, but they are grabbing big market share where they offer competitive products. Look how quickly manufacturers jumped on making electric truck announcements once Tesla made it clear the Cybertruck was coming. From the looks of it, electric trucks are going to be big.

baybal2 6y ago
> Not sure what you mean here, EVs are easily the fastest growing auto-segment. Given that it grown from near zero after Tesla in markets which had zero EVs before, triple digit growth is not something extraordinary. In countries which already had some EV presence, hasn't been so spectacular.
- beefield 6y ago
  I like to compare the growth rates to iPhone. Apple had never to consecutive full production years of iPhone with triple digit growth rates. And by all measures iPhone growth was explosive in the smartphone market. Given how much more difficult it is to scale car production than phone production, it is quite obvious that double digit growth is as high as it is going to get. But with even that growth rate, the market for new cars is going to look very different in ten years time.
  - jsight 6y ago
    Indeed, the old adage about people overestimating short term exponentials but underestimating long term exponentials remains true.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  In the US—where Tesla has been established for over a decade—EV sales are the strongest growth segment in the auto industry. On top of Tesla's growth, Chevy has had tremendous success with the Bolt.

snovv_crash 6y ago

LFP has poor energy density compared to LiIon. It's great for static installations (powerwalls etc) but putting in cars, phones, drones etc is a fools errand.

baybal2 6y ago
Not so fast: 1. 170wh/kg cells were on the market for a few years (held them in my own hands,) and, allegedly, 200wh/kg cells are to come. 2. The lower gravimetric cell energy density is compensated by lower cooling requirements, higher volumetric density, and bigger maximum cell sizes. 3. LFP survive fast charging, and deep charge/discharge much better, and have more much better cycle life than anything else. This reduces the need in overprovisioning dramatically. All of this translate in quite good battery pack specs, and much lower cost.
- snovv_crash 6y ago
  Anywhere I can buy these cells? (No, seriously). I haven't found anything despite a fair bit of searching. In comparison, I can order 18650 LiIons with 50% higher energy density right now, in pretty much any quantity or balance of discharge rate vs. capacity I want. BMCs are cheap and easily available. No supply chain worries. If I need to export I just buy in the destination country and build packs there.