6 ms·

TSMC is the center of the universe for chip fab. AMD, NVidia, Qualcomm, and Apple all rely on their manufacturing. Doesn't this create a systemic risk especial

by gzu 6y ago

TSMC is the center of the universe for chip fab. AMD, NVidia, Qualcomm, and Apple all rely on their manufacturing. Doesn't this create a systemic risk especially with Taiwan's ties to China?

zucker42 6y ago
TSMC just stopped making chips for one of its biggest customers just because the U.S. passed a law. They're building a big facility in Arizona just to satisfy the economic nationalists in the U.S. Plus, Samsung is also outside of China, and while their technology is behind TSMC, they are fairly competitive. I don't think any ties Taiwan has with China are very worrying in this case. TSMC's ties with the U.S. are, on the other hand, a big strategic threat to China, and maybe to other countries that aren't the U.S.
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  Samsung has just as many ties with the US as TSMC. Both companies use semiconductor manufacturing equipment from US firms like Applied Materials and KLA. The reinterpretation of US export controls that bars TSMC from selling to Huawei extends from not just barring companies from selling products to China with US technology inside, but also barring companies from using US technology to manufacture Chinese-designed products that are then sold to China. This applies to Samsung just as much as TSMC. TSMC isn't real bottleneck here. It's US semiconductor manufacturing equipment firms fully under US jurisdiction that underpin the supply chain for any modern fab.
  - caycep 6y ago
    this area of industry is perhaps the most interesting- the firms doing research and at the forefront of chipmanufacture, but in the lay tech press doesn't get a lot of fanfare. Are there good links to write-ups about how this industry is structured, etc? The only other company I know about is ASML who makes the EUV lithography machines...
    - Malician 6y ago
      https://semiwiki.com/ https://semiwiki.com/ has a lot of cool stuff on the semiconductor side. https://www.nextplatform.com/category/hyperscale/ https://www.nextplatform.com/category/hyperscale/ has interesting stuff on uses and development you don't see from a consumer POV
      - brennanpeterson 6y ago
        I would add lithoguru.vom and the related courses (Chris Mack) as well as semiengineering.com
baybal2 6y ago
> TSMC is the center of the universe for chip fab. AMD, NVidia, Qualcomm, and Apple all rely on their manufacturing. Doesn't this create a systemic risk especially with Taiwan's ties to China? It does, and that's not only TSMC, or even fabs as such. Taiwan is a source for a many single vendor semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and consumables. Taiwan going down means the semiconductor industry as such, globally, going down for a few years at least.
- welterde 6y ago
  What kind of equipment are we talking here? First thing that comes to mind are lithography machines, but for the very high-end ASML is the only game in town currently afaik. And they are sitting in the Netherlands (working with Zeiss in Germany). For larger feature sizes there are vendors too.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    Equipment, some low profile stuff like coaters, wafer preparation, and cleaning. Packaging equipment, and consumables. Some AMHS. Gas, and chemical handling equipment. Some resist makers. Clean room material markers, few makers of vacuum grade plastics, FOUP, film, and other carriers.
- yehaaa 6y ago
  That’s a bit of a stretch isn’t it? You still have Global foundries, Samsung and the off chance, Intel opening their fabs.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    All GloFO, Sam, and Japanese all use at least in some part something from Taiwanese makers. If for example, the only one maker of particular brand of proprietary resist stripper does go down, I don't know if somebody would even be able to reverse engineer it to know how it works, let alone reproduce it. They will have to go back few generations in the resist tech to resume production with non TW suppliers. And like that with many, many other parts of the ecosystem. It's only a tip of the iceberg.
bertjk 6y ago
Do you mean their potential for war with China? Yes.
qzw 6y ago
Also an excellent way to ensure that the US will defend Taiwan wholeheartedly if push comes to shove. Geopolitical chess 101.
- lisper 6y ago
  That assumes competent government in the U.S. which should not be taken for granted nowadays. Hong Kong fell without a peep from the U.S.
  - microcolonel 6y ago
    > Hong Kong fell without a peep from the U.S. Except completely reclassifying it to remove the thing that made China want to seize control in the first place: special trade status. Other than that, what could the current administration do that wasn't screwed up by its predecessors?
    - lisper 6y ago
      My allusion to incompetent government in the U.S. should not be construed as limited to the current administration. The U.S. government has been screwing up a lot of things for a very long time now.
      - greenbush 6y ago
        Yes, with many thanks to the Republican party that doesn't believe in governing competently. The party of anti-government has been doing everything it can for decades to get the government to break down and screw up. Instead of improving government, they've been systematically destroying its ability to deal with real problems.
    - greenbush 6y ago
      A true leader would have gotten on the phone with all of his counterparts in all of our allied countries and given notice to China that the new laws to curtail freedoms are a red line. And come up together with a list of collective sanctions (including banking) to threaten China with. Instead, Trump has spent so much of his time kissing up to Xi to get his help to win the re-election (per Bolton's book). And check out some tweets from 2020: "Terrific working with President Xi, a man who truly loves his country." "In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” "“Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus." "Of his many tweets over the three-day Memorial Day weekend, when the Hong Kong issue was at the top of the news, none was about Hong Kong. During the Hong Kong protests of 2014, Mr. Trump tweeted one of his few clear statements on the plight of the territory: “President Obama should stay out of the Hong Kong protests, we have enough problems in our own country!”" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/opinion/china-hong-kong-law-protests.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/opinion/china-hong-kong-l...
qalmakka 6y ago
I'd say that the ties of Taiwan with China are not that concerning, considering that they actually consider themselves to be the legitimate government of China in exile on the island of Taiwan and that the mainland has missile batteries ready to fire missles on them. I guess the real danger here in our unforeseeable world will arise if the American government becomes either unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan from a sea invasion from the CPC, something that would probably be more serious to American (and world) security than losing a few fabs in Asia, I think.
- emteycz 6y ago
  > they actually consider themselves to be the legitimate government of China That's not the case since 1991.
  - qalmakka 6y ago
    Technically, they do, they are forced to remain the Republic of China (and also lay a claim on Mongolia) because any change of status would be interpreted by The PRC as a declaration of independence. So yes, while it's quite clear they don't care about the mainland, they have to de jure still keep the irredentist clauses in their laws and statutes in order to avoid war with the Chinese.
- meragrin_ 6y ago
  Do you think the American government is able to defend Taiwan right now? With China about 100 miles from Taiwan, I don't see how anyone could get close without mass casualties. China has the shorter and more secure supply lines. They could send an invasion force using numerous small water vessels in waters they could easily defend. In the end, the losing side would just destroy all the important places in Taiwan.
  - T-A 6y ago
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...
wyuenho 6y ago
TSMC has fabs in Washington and they are going to open another one in Arizona. They also have a bunch of design centers in the US, so no. The strategic planners have thought of all of these things way ahead of you.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Even with that, the global supply chain in semiconductor consumables will go down for a few years. With all respects, its not humanly possible to operate such a "born global" industry as semiconductors manufacturing without a globally integrated supply chain. Russia for example still keep tries to have a 100% internal military semiconductor supply chain. Their best chips made on a domestic process are 10μm. TI military foundry is not much further ahead. I doubt that any actual "strategic planner" actually put his hand on any American policy making process in the last 30 years. The way how terribly unprepared the US was to even such an insignificant nationwide emergency like the virus, is the best proof.
  - ChuckNorris89 6y ago
    With all due respect, the US Gov doesn't have to depend on TI for defense/national security chips. They could cut a deal with Intel as soon as the ink is dry on the security clearances.
    - baybal2 6y ago
      In principle, in case of extreme urgency on a level of national emergency, they can, but this will also mean that it will be Intel who will have to redesign, and adapt the mask. Some military IP is so old, that it isn't even digitised, or is a non-syntheszed, hand drawn IP. Some of it will likely be completely unworkable on a new CMOS process because of dependency on some, now exotic, high speed CML logic. And we are only talking about digital chips. Analog chips case will likely be hopeless without a specialty analog foundry. In the peacetime, it is very, very unlikely they will be able to "reorient" to make defence chips, as it will seriously disrupt the company. And in the end, it may not matter at all if the supply chain for materials will go down in case of a military conflict.
cma 6y ago
Isn't Nvidia using Samsung this upcoming gen?
whazor 6y ago
The important machines from TSMC are made by other companies. Competitors can and will also make 5nm chips. TSMC definitely has a headstart and it requires a huge investment to realize a fab (machines, clean rooms) also a lot of integration work and many optimisations to become profitable.
rasz 6y ago
Now imagine Chine acquiring outdated, but still somewhat decent fab capability to sustain itself in a pickle .. and then rolling over Taiwan. Wouldnt have to be in the open, a big 'oopsie all TSMC fabs burned down overnight' would create chaos for not prepared nations.

by gzu 6y ago

TSMC is the center of the universe for chip fab. AMD, NVidia, Qualcomm, and Apple all rely on their manufacturing. Doesn't this create a systemic risk especially with Taiwan's ties to China?

zucker42 6y ago

TSMC just stopped making chips for one of its biggest customers just because the U.S. passed a law. They're building a big facility in Arizona just to satisfy the economic nationalists in the U.S. Plus, Samsung is also outside of China, and while their technology is behind TSMC, they are fairly competitive. I don't think any ties Taiwan has with China are very worrying in this case. TSMC's ties with the U.S. are, on the other hand, a big strategic threat to China, and maybe to other countries that aren't the U.S.

magicsmoke 6y ago
Samsung has just as many ties with the US as TSMC. Both companies use semiconductor manufacturing equipment from US firms like Applied Materials and KLA. The reinterpretation of US export controls that bars TSMC from selling to Huawei extends from not just barring companies from selling products to China with US technology inside, but also barring companies from using US technology to manufacture Chinese-designed products that are then sold to China. This applies to Samsung just as much as TSMC. TSMC isn't real bottleneck here. It's US semiconductor manufacturing equipment firms fully under US jurisdiction that underpin the supply chain for any modern fab.
- caycep 6y ago
  this area of industry is perhaps the most interesting- the firms doing research and at the forefront of chipmanufacture, but in the lay tech press doesn't get a lot of fanfare. Are there good links to write-ups about how this industry is structured, etc? The only other company I know about is ASML who makes the EUV lithography machines...
  - Malician 6y ago
    https://semiwiki.com/ https://semiwiki.com/ has a lot of cool stuff on the semiconductor side. https://www.nextplatform.com/category/hyperscale/ https://www.nextplatform.com/category/hyperscale/ has interesting stuff on uses and development you don't see from a consumer POV
    - brennanpeterson 6y ago
      I would add lithoguru.vom and the related courses (Chris Mack) as well as semiengineering.com

baybal2 6y ago

> TSMC is the center of the universe for chip fab. AMD, NVidia, Qualcomm, and Apple all rely on their manufacturing. Doesn't this create a systemic risk especially with Taiwan's ties to China? It does, and that's not only TSMC, or even fabs as such. Taiwan is a source for a many single vendor semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and consumables. Taiwan going down means the semiconductor industry as such, globally, going down for a few years at least.

welterde 6y ago
What kind of equipment are we talking here? First thing that comes to mind are lithography machines, but for the very high-end ASML is the only game in town currently afaik. And they are sitting in the Netherlands (working with Zeiss in Germany). For larger feature sizes there are vendors too.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Equipment, some low profile stuff like coaters, wafer preparation, and cleaning. Packaging equipment, and consumables. Some AMHS. Gas, and chemical handling equipment. Some resist makers. Clean room material markers, few makers of vacuum grade plastics, FOUP, film, and other carriers.
yehaaa 6y ago
That’s a bit of a stretch isn’t it? You still have Global foundries, Samsung and the off chance, Intel opening their fabs.
- baybal2 6y ago
  All GloFO, Sam, and Japanese all use at least in some part something from Taiwanese makers. If for example, the only one maker of particular brand of proprietary resist stripper does go down, I don't know if somebody would even be able to reverse engineer it to know how it works, let alone reproduce it. They will have to go back few generations in the resist tech to resume production with non TW suppliers. And like that with many, many other parts of the ecosystem. It's only a tip of the iceberg.

bertjk 6y ago

Do you mean their potential for war with China? Yes.

qzw 6y ago

Also an excellent way to ensure that the US will defend Taiwan wholeheartedly if push comes to shove. Geopolitical chess 101.

lisper 6y ago
That assumes competent government in the U.S. which should not be taken for granted nowadays. Hong Kong fell without a peep from the U.S.
- microcolonel 6y ago
  > Hong Kong fell without a peep from the U.S. Except completely reclassifying it to remove the thing that made China want to seize control in the first place: special trade status. Other than that, what could the current administration do that wasn't screwed up by its predecessors?
  - lisper 6y ago
    My allusion to incompetent government in the U.S. should not be construed as limited to the current administration. The U.S. government has been screwing up a lot of things for a very long time now.
    - greenbush 6y ago
      Yes, with many thanks to the Republican party that doesn't believe in governing competently. The party of anti-government has been doing everything it can for decades to get the government to break down and screw up. Instead of improving government, they've been systematically destroying its ability to deal with real problems.
  - greenbush 6y ago
    A true leader would have gotten on the phone with all of his counterparts in all of our allied countries and given notice to China that the new laws to curtail freedoms are a red line. And come up together with a list of collective sanctions (including banking) to threaten China with. Instead, Trump has spent so much of his time kissing up to Xi to get his help to win the re-election (per Bolton's book). And check out some tweets from 2020: "Terrific working with President Xi, a man who truly loves his country." "In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” "“Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus." "Of his many tweets over the three-day Memorial Day weekend, when the Hong Kong issue was at the top of the news, none was about Hong Kong. During the Hong Kong protests of 2014, Mr. Trump tweeted one of his few clear statements on the plight of the territory: “President Obama should stay out of the Hong Kong protests, we have enough problems in our own country!”" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/opinion/china-hong-kong-law-protests.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/opinion/china-hong-kong-l...

qalmakka 6y ago

I'd say that the ties of Taiwan with China are not that concerning, considering that they actually consider themselves to be the legitimate government of China in exile on the island of Taiwan and that the mainland has missile batteries ready to fire missles on them. I guess the real danger here in our unforeseeable world will arise if the American government becomes either unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan from a sea invasion from the CPC, something that would probably be more serious to American (and world) security than losing a few fabs in Asia, I think.

emteycz 6y ago
> they actually consider themselves to be the legitimate government of China That's not the case since 1991.
- qalmakka 6y ago
  Technically, they do, they are forced to remain the Republic of China (and also lay a claim on Mongolia) because any change of status would be interpreted by The PRC as a declaration of independence. So yes, while it's quite clear they don't care about the mainland, they have to de jure still keep the irredentist clauses in their laws and statutes in order to avoid war with the Chinese.
meragrin_ 6y ago
Do you think the American government is able to defend Taiwan right now? With China about 100 miles from Taiwan, I don't see how anyone could get close without mass casualties. China has the shorter and more secure supply lines. They could send an invasion force using numerous small water vessels in waters they could easily defend. In the end, the losing side would just destroy all the important places in Taiwan.
- T-A 6y ago
  https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...

wyuenho 6y ago

TSMC has fabs in Washington and they are going to open another one in Arizona. They also have a bunch of design centers in the US, so no. The strategic planners have thought of all of these things way ahead of you.

baybal2 6y ago
Even with that, the global supply chain in semiconductor consumables will go down for a few years. With all respects, its not humanly possible to operate such a "born global" industry as semiconductors manufacturing without a globally integrated supply chain. Russia for example still keep tries to have a 100% internal military semiconductor supply chain. Their best chips made on a domestic process are 10μm. TI military foundry is not much further ahead. I doubt that any actual "strategic planner" actually put his hand on any American policy making process in the last 30 years. The way how terribly unprepared the US was to even such an insignificant nationwide emergency like the virus, is the best proof.
- ChuckNorris89 6y ago
  With all due respect, the US Gov doesn't have to depend on TI for defense/national security chips. They could cut a deal with Intel as soon as the ink is dry on the security clearances.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    In principle, in case of extreme urgency on a level of national emergency, they can, but this will also mean that it will be Intel who will have to redesign, and adapt the mask. Some military IP is so old, that it isn't even digitised, or is a non-syntheszed, hand drawn IP. Some of it will likely be completely unworkable on a new CMOS process because of dependency on some, now exotic, high speed CML logic. And we are only talking about digital chips. Analog chips case will likely be hopeless without a specialty analog foundry. In the peacetime, it is very, very unlikely they will be able to "reorient" to make defence chips, as it will seriously disrupt the company. And in the end, it may not matter at all if the supply chain for materials will go down in case of a military conflict.

cma 6y ago

Isn't Nvidia using Samsung this upcoming gen?

whazor 6y ago

The important machines from TSMC are made by other companies. Competitors can and will also make 5nm chips. TSMC definitely has a headstart and it requires a huge investment to realize a fab (machines, clean rooms) also a lot of integration work and many optimisations to become profitable.

rasz 6y ago

Now imagine Chine acquiring outdated, but still somewhat decent fab capability to sustain itself in a pickle .. and then rolling over Taiwan. Wouldnt have to be in the open, a big 'oopsie all TSMC fabs burned down overnight' would create chaos for not prepared nations.