6 ms·

In what world is "economy takes a hit" not a win over "economy takes a hit and tens of thousands of people die"?

by taneq 6y ago

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
My concern is about the exit strategy. Most countries don't expect to eradicate the virus for decades, if ever, and vaccines are expected to be only partially effective. After months and potentially years of keeping the virus out, will these countries ever be able to switch and decide it's safe to let the virus in?
- adrianN 6y ago
  Partially effective vaccines are good enough to basically eradicate the virus if everybody gets them. No country will continue pandemic measures after a sufficient number of people are vaccinated.
  - saiya-jin 6y ago
    Considering various aspects like anti-vaxers, very remote tribes etc. as true eradication with 7 billions is most probably impossible. Everybody will never get them. Also, seems like every state will have their own variant with varying effectiveness (and possibly some bad side effects), I don't see things very rosy for next few years. It will be probably good enough situation eventually, but I presume it will just become one of those ever-present, potentially deadly things that you can get when traveling to exotic places like malaria or chikungunya. But this time, you can also get it in your grocery shop/kindergarten/work. The thing is, if everybody really followed all the rules, the virus would die on its own due to R being close to 0. But that's pure fantasy when I look outside, always somebody not wearing mask properly (ie under the nose), skipping wearing it with pretense of drinking.
    - Nextgrid 6y ago
      Considering that Covid can be lethal I’d assume anti-vaxxers would be a self-resolving problem if given enough time.
      - adrianN 6y ago
        Measles can also be lethal. People are stupid.
      - mcv 6y ago
        The stupidity, the resistance to measures, and the conspiracy theories surrounding COVID-19 are also surprisingly contagious.
      - throwaway-571 6y ago
        While I understand the sentiment, they don’t live in a bubble and mask work by lowering the transmission at the source, not as much at the destination. Anti-mask / anti-vaccine people can still take down science abiding citizens with them, probably faster than the disease can take _them_. I don’t wish short or long COVID on anyone.
  - makomk 6y ago
    Even putting aside the logistical impossibility and massive political difficulties of vaccinating everyone, there's a good chance it still wouldn't be enough to eradicate the virus. If herd immunity needs say 80% of people to be immune and the vaccine only protects 50% of those vaccinated - which are probably fairly realistic figures - then the vaccine can't stop it from spreading. (Note that this is also likely higher than the herd immunity threshold from people actually catching the virus naturally, since that gives immunity to people more likely to spread it but there's no way to control who gets immunity from vaccinating everyone.) The general suspicion amongst experts seems to be that the current wave of vaccine candidates are probably not going to be effective enough to allow ending the control measures that have been put in place.
- 9HZZRfNlpR 6y ago
  I'm currently in Spain and the economic outcome is devastating for low income people, you can sense that large part of the population can't take it anymore and I can't see the measures to continue in the long run. Despite all the neasures (including masks) the virus is spreading.
- taneq 6y ago
  Vaccines are going to be no less effective than 'herd immunity'. Countries that don't go for elimination might just have to be permanently locked out from countries that manage to eliminate it.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    That's certainly true. Neither vaccines nor herd immunity are expected to eradicate the virus - but every country I know of, even New Zealand and China who are willing to lock down millions for tiny outbreaks, has made it clear they plan to end restrictions after a vaccine is widely distributed. So there's going to come a choice where Palau's choices are accepting the virus and becoming a permanent hermit kingdom.
mcv 6y ago
It's not a win, it's a smaller loss.

In what world is "economy takes a hit" not a win over "economy takes a hit and tens of thousands of people die"?

by taneq 6y ago

In what world is "economy takes a hit" not a win over "economy takes a hit and tens of thousands of people die"?

My concern is about the exit strategy. Most countries don't expect to eradicate the virus for decades, if ever, and vaccines are expected to be only partially effective. After months and potentially years of keeping the virus out, will these countries ever be able to switch and decide it's safe to let the virus in?

adrianN 6y ago
Partially effective vaccines are good enough to basically eradicate the virus if everybody gets them. No country will continue pandemic measures after a sufficient number of people are vaccinated.
- saiya-jin 6y ago
  Considering various aspects like anti-vaxers, very remote tribes etc. as true eradication with 7 billions is most probably impossible. Everybody will never get them. Also, seems like every state will have their own variant with varying effectiveness (and possibly some bad side effects), I don't see things very rosy for next few years. It will be probably good enough situation eventually, but I presume it will just become one of those ever-present, potentially deadly things that you can get when traveling to exotic places like malaria or chikungunya. But this time, you can also get it in your grocery shop/kindergarten/work. The thing is, if everybody really followed all the rules, the virus would die on its own due to R being close to 0. But that's pure fantasy when I look outside, always somebody not wearing mask properly (ie under the nose), skipping wearing it with pretense of drinking.
  - Nextgrid 6y ago
    Considering that Covid can be lethal I’d assume anti-vaxxers would be a self-resolving problem if given enough time.
    - adrianN 6y ago
      Measles can also be lethal. People are stupid.
    - mcv 6y ago
      The stupidity, the resistance to measures, and the conspiracy theories surrounding COVID-19 are also surprisingly contagious.
    - throwaway-571 6y ago
      While I understand the sentiment, they don’t live in a bubble and mask work by lowering the transmission at the source, not as much at the destination. Anti-mask / anti-vaccine people can still take down science abiding citizens with them, probably faster than the disease can take _them_. I don’t wish short or long COVID on anyone.
- makomk 6y ago
  Even putting aside the logistical impossibility and massive political difficulties of vaccinating everyone, there's a good chance it still wouldn't be enough to eradicate the virus. If herd immunity needs say 80% of people to be immune and the vaccine only protects 50% of those vaccinated - which are probably fairly realistic figures - then the vaccine can't stop it from spreading. (Note that this is also likely higher than the herd immunity threshold from people actually catching the virus naturally, since that gives immunity to people more likely to spread it but there's no way to control who gets immunity from vaccinating everyone.) The general suspicion amongst experts seems to be that the current wave of vaccine candidates are probably not going to be effective enough to allow ending the control measures that have been put in place.
9HZZRfNlpR 6y ago
I'm currently in Spain and the economic outcome is devastating for low income people, you can sense that large part of the population can't take it anymore and I can't see the measures to continue in the long run. Despite all the neasures (including masks) the virus is spreading.
taneq 6y ago
Vaccines are going to be no less effective than 'herd immunity'. Countries that don't go for elimination might just have to be permanently locked out from countries that manage to eliminate it.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  That's certainly true. Neither vaccines nor herd immunity are expected to eradicate the virus - but every country I know of, even New Zealand and China who are willing to lock down millions for tiny outbreaks, has made it clear they plan to end restrictions after a vaccine is widely distributed. So there's going to come a choice where Palau's choices are accepting the virus and becoming a permanent hermit kingdom.

mcv 6y ago

It's not a win, it's a smaller loss.