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How likely is it that a vaccine would have long-term side effects? Have there been past cases of it? Is there a plausible biological mechanism that could cause

by devit 6y ago

How likely is it that a vaccine would have long-term side effects? Have there been past cases of it? Is there a plausible biological mechanism that could cause this?

hatenberg 6y ago
Not particulartly unlikely actually: Some Examples: - Philippines dengue vaccine debacle https://www.npr.org/2019/05/02/719366831/dengue-vaccine-controversy-in-the-philippines https://www.npr.org/2019/05/02/719366831/dengue-vaccine-cont... - The rushed flu vaccine in the US in response to the 1976 outbreak https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak Different underlying mechanisms (Dengue is a bitch where you get immunity against one strain but significantly increase the chances of a hemorrhagic event if you get any of the other strains for example) Given how little we know about covid and its family (Sars burned out, MERS never got the investment it needed to understand), rushing is a very bad idea(tm). But so was pretty much most of the inept response so far, so yea... Longer list from the CDC here, you can see a variety of causes from simple manufacturing mistakes (given how we did on producing rushed tests....) to complex side effects - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.... Its worthwhile noting that the scale here is the most scary part. Most vaccines are limited to specific situations or age / risk / region groups and have years of testing and real world data behind it, following gradual rollout over the world - but the covid one will be applied universal to potentially billions in a short time. Rushing that is, well, an unfathomable risk. Edit: Judging from the reaction this isn't what certain people wanted to hear. Well, we are in this mess because of exactly that attitude. Nature does not care for our wishes and we better grow up sooner rather than later.
vharuck 6y ago
A polio vaccine introduced in the 1930s could paralyze kids. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine
vladimirralev 6y ago
I did some research on this in my spare time. It's about as likely as the long term side effects of the covid19 itself(unknown), but to a lesser extent. If we take the Flu vaccine for example, it causes some autoimmune disease at rate 15 times less than the actual Flu virus. Flu vaccines are the most tested. There are nastier less tested vaccines out there that score worse, but still better than the actual viruses. That being said a virus doesn't infect the whole population in general, while for a vaccine to be effective you have to push it out widely thus reversing the win a little bit. I am sure there is an equation out there that balances the risk.
noinsight 6y ago
In Finland all school aged children (afaik) were vaccinated against the recent swine flu outbreak and then it was discovered it led to narcolepsy in some cases... On phone atm so no sources.
- randomfinn 6y ago
  https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish_researchers_zero_in_on_link_between_pandemrix_vaccine_and_narcolepsy/7692372 https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish_researchers_zero_... with more information in related links at the bottom.

by devit 6y ago

How likely is it that a vaccine would have long-term side effects? Have there been past cases of it? Is there a plausible biological mechanism that could cause this?

hatenberg 6y ago

Not particulartly unlikely actually: Some Examples: - Philippines dengue vaccine debacle https://www.npr.org/2019/05/02/719366831/dengue-vaccine-controversy-in-the-philippines https://www.npr.org/2019/05/02/719366831/dengue-vaccine-cont... - The rushed flu vaccine in the US in response to the 1976 outbreak https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak Different underlying mechanisms (Dengue is a bitch where you get immunity against one strain but significantly increase the chances of a hemorrhagic event if you get any of the other strains for example) Given how little we know about covid and its family (Sars burned out, MERS never got the investment it needed to understand), rushing is a very bad idea(tm). But so was pretty much most of the inept response so far, so yea... Longer list from the CDC here, you can see a variety of causes from simple manufacturing mistakes (given how we did on producing rushed tests....) to complex side effects - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.... Its worthwhile noting that the scale here is the most scary part. Most vaccines are limited to specific situations or age / risk / region groups and have years of testing and real world data behind it, following gradual rollout over the world - but the covid one will be applied universal to potentially billions in a short time. Rushing that is, well, an unfathomable risk. Edit: Judging from the reaction this isn't what certain people wanted to hear. Well, we are in this mess because of exactly that attitude. Nature does not care for our wishes and we better grow up sooner rather than later.

vharuck 6y ago

A polio vaccine introduced in the 1930s could paralyze kids. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine

vladimirralev 6y ago

I did some research on this in my spare time. It's about as likely as the long term side effects of the covid19 itself(unknown), but to a lesser extent. If we take the Flu vaccine for example, it causes some autoimmune disease at rate 15 times less than the actual Flu virus. Flu vaccines are the most tested. There are nastier less tested vaccines out there that score worse, but still better than the actual viruses. That being said a virus doesn't infect the whole population in general, while for a vaccine to be effective you have to push it out widely thus reversing the win a little bit. I am sure there is an equation out there that balances the risk.

noinsight 6y ago

In Finland all school aged children (afaik) were vaccinated against the recent swine flu outbreak and then it was discovered it led to narcolepsy in some cases... On phone atm so no sources.

randomfinn 6y ago
https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish_researchers_zero_in_on_link_between_pandemrix_vaccine_and_narcolepsy/7692372 https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish_researchers_zero_... with more information in related links at the bottom.