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Doesn't this suffer from low n? There's only been so many presidential elections, and there's only been so many in a similar environment, whatever you think the
by lordnacho 6y ago
Doesn't this suffer from low n? There's only been so many presidential elections, and there's only been so many in a similar environment, whatever you think the relevant factors are.
Then there's the one - off problem of evaluating how good the prediction was. If you think it's 95+ for one side then yes, you're embarrassed when it goes the other way. If you think it's 75 then you should be wrong one out of four anyway, but people will still think you messed up.
Impressive work regardless, I always enjoy these stats things.
- Tarq0n 6y agoNot at all. These models all have a multilevel structure, accounting for election level data, district data and poll data. The main source of uncertainty is probably how hard representative polling is, not to mention the polls are carried out by many different organizations.
- manquer 6y agoThe logistical challenges are considerable factor this election. Many people may want to vote for say Biden, but their ballots could be disregarded. Even without the political fight over USPS funding, it is going to be extremely hard for them to turn around in < 1 week as required in many states, there are also the issue with votes that which are postmarked earlier but delivered later than election date( this is with good reason as you don't want results delayed if you wait for votes to come in) I am not sure how anyone, without detailed data access to postal operations can accurately predict how much of this going to be a problem.