4 ms·

> there is no way to really stop a virus in circulation Sure there is, a vaccine.

djsumdog 6y ago
It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine. Look to the 1970s and Swing Flu to see an example of a failed vaccine. It is absolutely insane that anyone is seriously considering we can make a safe vaccine for this in less than a year. Pharmaceutical companies have never made a successful vaccines for coronaviruses before. I've heard the argument, "Well we have more people working on it." If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month. There is no way, no matter how much money you throw at it, to safely do 5~10 years worth of testing in less than a year.
- achenatx 6y ago
  The SARS vaccine was likely successful. SARS died out and so the vaccine was never fully challenged in a pandemic. But as far as I know antibodies lasted a long time.
  - djsumdog 6y ago
    No they didn't. SARS1 and MERS vaccines had a ton of problems, such as Imuenopathic responses and Immune Enhancement syndrome. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218
- HPsquared 6y ago
  Indeed, you'd think in HN of all places, everyone should be familiar with the concept of the "mythical man month".
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    You just replied to a strawman argument made by someone you seem to agree with. Why?
- mandeepj 6y ago
  > If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month Absurd argument. You can't parallelize the birth of a baby but you can do that for testing a vaccine.
  - WD-42 6y ago
    How? The whole point of phase 3 clinical trials is long term observation. Have you figured out how to parallelize the passing of time so that it goes by quicker?
  - refurb 6y ago
    What? You'd just run your phase 1 (safety) in parallel with phase 2/3 (efficacy)? So basically dose tens of thousands of people before you even know it's safe?
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > I've heard the argument That was a beautiful strawman, and even one of the replies your comment walked right into it. There aren't many human coronaviruses circulating to begin with. And they're not dangerous, aside from SARS-CoV-2. Of course there aren't any vaccines for them. Got pretty close on SARS & MERS before they fizzled on their own. > It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine How long do you think the leading SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been in development? Years. It's not like they were dreamed up since February.
nradov 6y ago
A vaccine will be nice to have but it won't be sufficient to eradicate the virus. Some people won't be vaccinated. No vaccine is 100% effective. And there are animal reservoirs; we obviously can't vaccinate wild animals.
- harambae 6y ago
  >Some people won't be vaccinated. Not just some, but surveys show something like 40% of Americans say they won't take it
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    If we really get that level of abstention, then maybe it would be a good idea after all to give people who test positive for antibodies some kind of way to prove it.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  We don't get 100% vaccination on any disease, but we have eradicated a few and all but eradicated a bunch. We just need something approximating herd immunity levels. Those who want vaccinations will get them, the rest can slowly add to the total until society as a whole is no longer worried about coronavirus.

It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine. Look to the 1970s and Swing Flu to see an example of a failed vaccine. It is absolutely insane that anyone is seriously considering we can make a safe vaccine for this in less than a year. Pharmaceutical companies have never made a successful vaccines for coronaviruses before. I've heard the argument, "Well we have more people working on it." If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month. There is no way, no matter how much money you throw at it, to safely do 5~10 years worth of testing in less than a year.

achenatx 6y ago
The SARS vaccine was likely successful. SARS died out and so the vaccine was never fully challenged in a pandemic. But as far as I know antibodies lasted a long time.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  No they didn't. SARS1 and MERS vaccines had a ton of problems, such as Imuenopathic responses and Immune Enhancement syndrome. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218
HPsquared 6y ago
Indeed, you'd think in HN of all places, everyone should be familiar with the concept of the "mythical man month".
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  You just replied to a strawman argument made by someone you seem to agree with. Why?
mandeepj 6y ago
> If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month Absurd argument. You can't parallelize the birth of a baby but you can do that for testing a vaccine.
- WD-42 6y ago
  How? The whole point of phase 3 clinical trials is long term observation. Have you figured out how to parallelize the passing of time so that it goes by quicker?
- refurb 6y ago
  What? You'd just run your phase 1 (safety) in parallel with phase 2/3 (efficacy)? So basically dose tens of thousands of people before you even know it's safe?
rootusrootus 6y ago
> I've heard the argument That was a beautiful strawman, and even one of the replies your comment walked right into it. There aren't many human coronaviruses circulating to begin with. And they're not dangerous, aside from SARS-CoV-2. Of course there aren't any vaccines for them. Got pretty close on SARS & MERS before they fizzled on their own. > It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine How long do you think the leading SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been in development? Years. It's not like they were dreamed up since February.

nradov 6y ago

A vaccine will be nice to have but it won't be sufficient to eradicate the virus. Some people won't be vaccinated. No vaccine is 100% effective. And there are animal reservoirs; we obviously can't vaccinate wild animals.

harambae 6y ago
>Some people won't be vaccinated. Not just some, but surveys show something like 40% of Americans say they won't take it
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  If we really get that level of abstention, then maybe it would be a good idea after all to give people who test positive for antibodies some kind of way to prove it.
rootusrootus 6y ago
We don't get 100% vaccination on any disease, but we have eradicated a few and all but eradicated a bunch. We just need something approximating herd immunity levels. Those who want vaccinations will get them, the rest can slowly add to the total until society as a whole is no longer worried about coronavirus.