4 ms·

We really need to define "many people". I try to avoid comments and papers like you referenced. They essentially represent the worst case scenario -- it's in

We really need to define "many people". I try to avoid comments and papers like you referenced. They essentially represent the worst case scenario -- it's in the air, unkillable, easy to catch, victims never recover, you may have no symptoms but permanent damage, it makes sane people go crazy etc etc. How about -- what's the max viral load one can sustain for it not to pass the 1st layer immune system? Is there really a 1st and 2nd layer? Can I resist it without getting antibodies? How much more effective is a KN95 / N95 mask in terms of viral load vs the others? And why don't we have more high powered venting fans and permanent outside events and require building to open their windows or remove their walls in climates where that'd work?

thewarrior 6y ago
I don’t have a clear number for many. But the hospitalization rate is 1-2 %. And if we assume that half of them have long term symptoms thats around 1 %. You can do one thing to reduce your viral load. Wear a mask. N95 will do better than a surgical mask. But even mask wearing seems controversial. These things are really hard to study so you need to err on the side of caution.
- xkbarkar 6y ago
  Keep in mind that the current being on the safe side cautions have devastating effects on the vulnerable populations outside of the comfort of US and EU homes. "6,000 children could die every day as a direct consequence of the pandemic, that’s one child every 15 seconds, if we don’t act now." https://www.unicef.ie/stories/impact-covid-19-children/ https://www.unicef.ie/stories/impact-covid-19-children/
  - thewarrior 6y ago
    Not locking down in the US will not save the lives of children in Yemen
    - bpodgursky 6y ago
      This isn't true. The US threw away vast amount of food because of supply chain disruption, and a lot of raw production was interrupted. The US is a massive food exporter. If the price of soybean, or wheat, or pork goes up 15% internationally as a result of US supply disruptions, that doesn't starve any Americans, but it absolutely causes deaths in Yemen, which is already in the middle of a famine.
      - nuclearnice1 6y ago
        You’ll be happy to know that soybean and swine prices are at 10 year lows and wheat is up slightly but lower than a year ago. [1,2,3] I think your concern is real and well placed. When the economy is frozen for a pandemic, you have a demand shock and a supply shock, what happens to prices? I think this was genuinely unclear early in the pandemic. Interesting additional details here [4,5] [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDQ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDQ [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPORKUSDM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPORKUSDM [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PWHEAMTUSDQ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PWHEAMTUSDQ [4] https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-05-27/paul-krugman-is-pretty-upbeat-about-coronavirus-economic-recovery https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-05-27/pa... [5] https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1241689422090944513?lang=en https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/12416894220909...

thewarrior 6y ago

I don’t have a clear number for many. But the hospitalization rate is 1-2 %. And if we assume that half of them have long term symptoms thats around 1 %. You can do one thing to reduce your viral load. Wear a mask. N95 will do better than a surgical mask. But even mask wearing seems controversial. These things are really hard to study so you need to err on the side of caution.

xkbarkar 6y ago
Keep in mind that the current being on the safe side cautions have devastating effects on the vulnerable populations outside of the comfort of US and EU homes. "6,000 children could die every day as a direct consequence of the pandemic, that’s one child every 15 seconds, if we don’t act now." https://www.unicef.ie/stories/impact-covid-19-children/ https://www.unicef.ie/stories/impact-covid-19-children/
- thewarrior 6y ago
  Not locking down in the US will not save the lives of children in Yemen
  - bpodgursky 6y ago
    This isn't true. The US threw away vast amount of food because of supply chain disruption, and a lot of raw production was interrupted. The US is a massive food exporter. If the price of soybean, or wheat, or pork goes up 15% internationally as a result of US supply disruptions, that doesn't starve any Americans, but it absolutely causes deaths in Yemen, which is already in the middle of a famine.
    - nuclearnice1 6y ago
      You’ll be happy to know that soybean and swine prices are at 10 year lows and wheat is up slightly but lower than a year ago. [1,2,3] I think your concern is real and well placed. When the economy is frozen for a pandemic, you have a demand shock and a supply shock, what happens to prices? I think this was genuinely unclear early in the pandemic. Interesting additional details here [4,5] [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDQ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDQ [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPORKUSDM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPORKUSDM [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PWHEAMTUSDQ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PWHEAMTUSDQ [4] https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-05-27/paul-krugman-is-pretty-upbeat-about-coronavirus-economic-recovery https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-05-27/pa... [5] https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1241689422090944513?lang=en https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/12416894220909...