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They are generating lots of money with current launches, but are designing a next generation rocket. Rocket programs are expensive. The best comparison for th
by btilly 6y ago
They are generating lots of money with current launches, but are designing a next generation rocket. Rocket programs are expensive.
The best comparison for the rocket that Musk is building for Mars is to SLS. Per https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/11/nasas-sls-moon-rocket-is-2-years-behind-and-billions-over-budget-internal-report-finds/#:~:text=As%20the%20report%20states%3A%20%E2%80%9COverall,order%20to%20get%20this%20funding https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/11/nasas-sls-moon-rocket-is-2... we've spent over $17 billion on the SLS program so far, and it probably isn't as far along as Musk's SuperHeavy/Starship is.
Admittedly Musk is doing his rocket development for cheaper. A lot cheaper. But the baseline for what rocket development "should" cost is more than SpaceX has received in revenue, total, through all of its history. (Not profit, revenue. Nobody knows what its profit margin is. But given that SpaceX routinely launches at prices below what its competitors can afford, they probably aren't rich.)
- black6 6y ago> we've spent over $17 billion on the SLS program so far, and it probably isn't as far along as Musk's SuperHeavy/Starship is. There is a nearly complete SLS core stage awaiting testing at Stennis Space Center. How far along is Starship? https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/sls-green-run-verify-core-stage/ https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/sls-green-run-verify...
- bpodgursky 6y agoStarship has done test hops to half a kilometer multiple times, and they're on prototype... 7, 8? SLS hasn't moved an inch off the ground, ever.
- bryanlarsen 6y agoRaptor engine production is significantly ahead of the RS-25 production line restart. That core stage is using old Space Shuttle engines. Starship could certainly beat the first SLS launch sceduled for late 2021 if they gave up on reuse & in-flight refueling.
- mft_ 6y agoI suspect your question was somewhat rhetorical, but still: a test Starship is literally flying (albeit short hops currently) and the Raptor is looking pretty good.
- toomuchtodo 6y agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1HA9LlFNM0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1HA9LlFNM0 (Starship SN5 150m Hop, August 4th 2020) https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-raptor-engine-crushes-russian-record/ https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-raptor-engine-crushes-russi... (SpaceX crushes rocket engine world record during Raptor test) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295495834998513664 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295495834998513664 (@elonmusk: Raptor engine just reached 330 bar chamber pressure without exploding!)
- btilly 6y agoFrom your article, they haven't even put fuel in the SLS core stage to see if it leaks. Their promised timeline is based on the expectation that there will be no major snags on the way to actually sending it into orbit. I'm not aware that any orbital rocket program has ever been that lucky. I'm therefore dubious that everything will go according to their plan. By comparison, a full-sized prototype of Starship managed to launch and land again a few weeks ago. (Though on one engine, and not on all 6 for the final model.) As of June, they still considered it possible that they would get to orbit this year. (See https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-debut-2020/ https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-deb... for confirmation.) I consider that unduly optimistic, but certainly would take an even money bet that they get into orbit in under a year.
- woodandsteel 6y agoI guess you could make a case that, today, SLS is further along. But SpaceX is moving several times faster here than SLS, so in any case it is going to be up and flying regularly long before SLS. And in terms of cost per weight to orbit, it will be a hundred times less.