17 ms·
Only in the short to medium term... the characteristics which make SF an attractive place to live (just like NYC) are resilient and sticky. If you consider a p
by radicaldreamer 6y ago
Only in the short to medium term... the characteristics which make SF an attractive place to live (just like NYC) are resilient and sticky.
If you consider a post-covid world 5 years from now, do you think that SF with it's museums, bars, restaurants, and proximity to nature will be an unattractive place to live?
Do you think that remote-first/remote-only companies where the majority of employees are outside of the bay area will be as competitive with startups which follow a more traditional model in silicon valley?
Both are things I wouldn't bet on. This is a blip. It could be a major blip, but it's a blip nonetheless and those who are betting in the complete other direction are likely to get burned.
- wolco 6y agoIt's like the stock market, buy on the dip. This year would be a great year to buy the sf property if you see yourself there in 5 years.
- matt-attack 6y agoThe article mentioned rents down, but have housing prices dipped?
- refurb 6y agoCondos are, but single family home prices are going up.
- robotresearcher 6y agoIt’s a great time to have a private backyard. Lousy time to share an elevator.
- C1sc0cat 6y agoYes if your cash rich now would be the time to think about buying especially if your landlord is over stretched
- ssalazar 6y agoMany of the bars, restaurants, and smaller cultural institutions will be gone. The larger, well-funded museums and nature will stay of course. But much of what is interesting about a city comes from the people who live there and shape its culture. The San Francisco of today is very different from 10 or 20 years ago, and will be very different 10 years from now. This is recoverable, sure, but its not guaranteed, and its absolutely a change of course for this city and others.
- m_ke 6y agoI live in Brooklyn and have seen 2-3 business close a week around me. At this point almost every other storefront is vacant (many of which have been since before the pandemic). My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly and create an opportunity for a lot more small businesses in a year or so, most of which I assume will be restaurants and other "experience" based shops. The outdoor dining has been a great addition and it looks like it might become permanent [1], which would be a big plus for the city. There's also a lot more people biking now and I'm hopeful that it will help shape future legislation to make the city even more bike friendly. (I went to 4 different bike shops around me and they were all sold out). https://ny.eater.com/2020/8/3/21352532/outdoor-dining-extended-nyc https://ny.eater.com/2020/8/3/21352532/outdoor-dining-extend...
- wwweston 6y ago> My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly I'm going to predict that this will not happen. More specifically, that it will be unusual in general for rents or prices anywhere to drop any more than 10%. There's something odd going on and my best guess is that there are (a) accounting/tax practices that provide incentives for vacancy with certain nominal values and (b) real estate markets are now driven more by massive pools of capital trying to soak up opportunities than they are by demand on short-to-mid-term horizons. But I don't know enough to say for certain and explain how, and I'm hoping that someone can tell me why/how I'm stupid.
- 6y ago
- foobarian 6y agoThere are bars and restaurants and museums in hundreds of cities around the country. What makes the ones in SF so special? Or is it rather a tech gravity hole that was enabled by combination of chance and attractive climate?
- hnmullany 6y agoThe Bay Area has the highest concentration of Michelin stars in the country. The bars have great cocktails, decor and vibe. The SFMoma & DeYoung are first class museums as good as any city outside New York in the US.
- Camillo 6y agoHave you ever been to Chicago? There is nothing like the museum scene there in San Francisco.
- burfog 6y agoThe SFMoma & DeYoung are not first class museums. They have modern art. New York may beat San Francisco, but it is not particularly good. The winning city, without any doubt, is Washington, D.C. Also beating San Francisco: Houston, TX Huntsville, AL Pearlington, MS Kennedy Space Center, FL Dayton, OH Seattle, WA San Diego, CA Chantilly, VA Ashland, NE Unless you actually go to the same museum again and again, your own city doesn't matter. To see different things, you have to travel to different cities. The best city is thus one with lots of cheap direct flights to the cities with museums. That would likely be Denver, Dallas, Chicago, or Atlanta.
- albacur 6y agoI'd also include Los Angeles (Getty and LACMA), Chicago (Art Institute), and Boston (MFA, beating SF by default because it doesn't even really compete in this category).
- burfog 6y agoGetty and LACMA are not good. Los Angeles does however have good museums: the Battleship USS Iowa Museum, Fort MacArthur Museum, Mission San Fernando Rey de España, La Brea Tar Pits, and the California Science Center. Chicago's Art Institute is not good. Chicago does however have a couple good museums: Museum of Science and Industry, Field Museum of Natural History, Boston's MFA is not good. Boston does however have Fort Warren and the USS Constitution.
- nogabebop23 6y ago>> This is a blip. It could be a major blip So if it's a 10 or 20 year "major" blip does that make it longer than "temporary"? Locals tend to go to museums once or never, lots of places have good bars and restaurants and the idea of SF having a proximity to real nature is a joke. I guess time will tell if you, I or someone else is ultimately correct, but the pull of SF was the jobs above all else; if that's gone then I'd argue there are much better places to live for the amenities. NYC is in a similar boat - you move there for the people and what they bring when packing too many people in too small a physical space. This doesn't seem what most are looking for now or in the near/mid term.
- 2arrs2ells 6y agoDo you live in the Bay Area? Your take doesn’t match my experience at all... * Most of my friends are members of one museum (or have season tickets to SHN/SFJazz/etc) * Most of my friends go hiking in Marin or Big Basin or whenever at least once a month, and spend a weekend somewhere like Big Sur or Yosemite a couple times a year. Bay Area nature is unparalleled. SF may be in a tough place for a while, but don’t underestimate why it’s special.
- redisman 6y ago> Bay Area nature is unparalleled Puget Sound and Denver metros might disagree
- VRay 6y agoThis is ridiculous. Basically every city in the USA is within a couple hours' drive of "amazing nature" The only reason I live in the Bay Area is because my net worth goes up WAY more here per year than it does elsewhere.. If that changes, I'm out
- jimbob21 6y agoFinally a truthful comment. Everybody goes there to make money, that's it. There's nothing wrong with that, so why do people still try to pretend that isn't the reason when out of view of their employers?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- pmiller2 6y agoI don't know about you, but I didn't move to the Bay Area for museums, bars, restaurants, or proximity to nature. I moved because that's where the jobs were (to paraphrase Willie Sutton). While I have grown to like it here, when my company tells us what the salary adjustments will be for moving to other parts of the country, I'm going to start seriously looking for a new home. Granted, it may turn out that my new home will be the same as my old home, but, at least being forced to be remote is getting the wheels turning.
- robotburrito 6y agoI have to imagine if we had software unions we would hear nothing of this "adjustment." My code is worth just as much to the company if I write it in Arizona or San Francisco.
- 7ee7ueh3j3ur8i 6y agoI'll be honest, I've never cared about museums and having moved around the state I find the bar/restaurant scene pretty lacking compared to southern California. There's a good view to be had that I think will gurantee a certain minimum value in the city but I can get better culture and better food elsewhere.
- fock 6y agofrom a very continental european, the following points are making San Francisco very unattractive - earthquakes and still the same wooden housing which faciliated the burning of the whole city the last time. - forest fires.
- alexnewman 6y agoInterestingly museums are selling of property as they are going broke
- gfxgirl 6y agoIf I came from maybe Flagstaff Arizona I'd think SF has "museums, bars, restaurants, proximity to nature" but having lived in plenty of other places with more museums, bars, restaurants and proximity to nature SF was a let down.
- hpkuarg 6y agoI'm curious, where else have you lived with such a great balance of everything?
- josephmosby 6y ago#1 suggestion: Washington, DC. Museums (the Smithsonian museums), bars, restaurants (one of the Michelin cities), proximity to nature (there's a national park that cuts through the middle of the city, there's the National Arboretum, and you're about an hour drive from numerous state parks in Virginia and Maryland) #2 suggestion: Chicago, IL. Museums (check), bars (check), restaurants (also a Michelin city), nature (Lake Michigan). #3 suggestion: Boston I will 100% grant that the weather in the Bay Area is generally better than all three of those places - but if you don't highly rank outdoor activities, does that matter as much?
- hpkuarg 6y ago> a national park that cuts through the middle of the city Come now, you aren't suggesting that the National Mall counts as "proximity to nature" ;-) I've spent some time in all three cities and live in one; none of them really offer the same ease of access to nature as does San Francisco, if you count nature as necessarily including some level of remoteness from the built-up environment.
- mattcaldwell 6y agoLOL they're referring to Rock Creek Park, not the National Mall. RCP is probably the single best "urban" park system outside of Forest Park in Portland. I can walk out my door and be in nature in just a few minutes... you can walk or run all day and never leave the forest, yet still be in the middle of the city.
- brian_herman__ 6y agoLook at Detroit. It has farm land now. Soon a robocop statue!
- werber 6y agoDetroit is actually pretty great, we have some pretty awesome museums (the DIA has a really impressive collection), affordable orchestra, ballet, and opera, great parks (belle isle is magical), the food scene isn’t SF or NYC but it’s accessible and experimental, there are tons of pop ups, food trucks and the like. Besides that, It’s extremely affordable outside of a handful of neighborhoods. Obviously there are problems, but it’s actually a really easy and fun place to live
- zeveb 6y ago> If you consider a post-covid world 5 years from now, do you think that SF with its museums, bars, restaurants, and proximity to nature will be an unattractive place to live? As long as the city & county and state governments are as bad as they are, yes. San Francisco was easily the most disgusting American city I have ever been to. It somehow has managed to land in an anti-sweet spot of repressive laws aimed at the middle classes, while not enforcing any laws against the mentally ill who do things like defecate in public, urinate on the floors of even nice bars, accost one on the street and so forth. San Francisco needs someone to do for it what Hercules did for the Augean stables. The suburban area was much nicer, but still hellaciously expensive, way out of proportion to the quality of life. There's a reason why people are fleeing California in general, and San Francisco in particular.
- geebee 6y agoThere's almost no problem so severe that it is immune to hyperbole. I'm always in such a strange place responding to comments like this, because I generally agree. San Francisco govt is very restrictive toward business - it bans plastic straws and happy meals - but it seems helpless in the face of severe misbehavior from addicts and mentally ill. So severe that people might wonder if some in government are willfully enabling this behavior. I've lived in SF my whole life, and I'm pushing 50. My parents live here, I'm raising my kids here. Every day I wonder if I made the right decision. There's still time to leave. It hurts, feeling this way, because in many ways I still really love the place where I grew up, and I feel like a lot of my life is woven in here. I said all that to make it clear that I agree with you And yet, there's still room for disagreement about how severe it is. I've been on long walks (something I like doing in urban areas) since COVID hit. Where I go often depends on something I need to do in an area, an errand I have to run. I walked a long distance through the outer sunset along the great highway (closed to cars right now). From Washington and Presidio out through Clement street, for a ways. I surf, too, and while the waves don't have the shape of a point or reef break (think Santa Cruz), I'd much rather spread out in the beach break and find the occasional open corner than crowd in with a bunch of surfers all competing for the take-off spot (I felt this way before COVID, let alone now). Plenty of others (Carl Nolte wrote about a walk of his own in the Chronicle this sunday[1]), I don't need to list them all. I have glorious days here, still - there is some intrusion from urban blight even on those glorious walks, but in some cases it was a still pretty minor. I was not accosted, nor did I have to constantly dodge human feces. The city showed well, the houses and buildings were interesting looking, the views were glorious, the people around were friendly. There are comments who make it sound like every square block of SF is like escape from New York. It isn't, though it's getting worse, and I'm worried. Some of this, I think, is motivated by a desire to disparage left-wing government (I'm ok with holding progressive San Francisco accountable for what the city has become, though I do think we need to consider macro factors beyond what they can control - not to dismiss the considerable role of SF's policies, but as part of the discussion). I've also been downtown in plenty of other US cities - most recently, Seattle and Milwaukee. In some ways, the remarkable thing about SF's downtown is that it was inhabitable recently. Many cities wrote off their version of market street long, long ago. I do agree that parts of SF are pretty disgusting, and SF does win the top prize in this regard, but I actually don't agree that it is uniquely disgusting. Anyway, this is just a disagreement about degree, and some hyperbole is intended as a kind of satire or comic rant. Overall, I agree, we have a really serious problem in SF. [1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/The-city-Republicans-smear-most-SF-reveals-15486033.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/The-city-Republi...
- yellowapple 6y ago> Do you think that remote-first/remote-only companies where the majority of employees are outside of the bay area will be as competitive with startups which follow a more traditional model in silicon valley? Absolutely. Lower overhead, greater access to talent, and assertions that the Silicon Valley model is somehow better than a remote-first model are frequently worthy of a big ol' [citation needed].
- lsaac 6y agoA vacated city doesn't wait around for your blip to pass, it fills up with all sorts of nastiness, making it even more unpleasant for anyone to return.