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Yea, no. Blockchains are still a technology in their infancy but the need for them is clear. Rampant money printing is eroding the value of money - we cannot tr

by jarym 6y ago

Yea, no. Blockchains are still a technology in their infancy but the need for them is clear. Rampant money printing is eroding the value of money - we cannot trust Central Banks to preserve what little wealth we may have. And then we look at negative interest rates appearing, commercial banks beginning to show signs of stress like they did in 2007/08 and its clear we really can't trust them either. If you think you can, then ask the people of Lebanon what happened when they tried to withdraw their cash. Or Venezuelans. Or the Greeks a few years ago! No view on Bitcoin or any particular coin actually, but long term I am a firm believer that Blockchain today is like the Internet in the 80s - it aint perfect, but it aint going away either.

jarym 6y ago
To be honest, I'm surprised Bruce Schneier of all people would hold such a view - I mean, there was almost no need for internet security not THAT long ago and yet technologies like SSL/TLS, VPNs, etc. are indispensible to us today.
gwbas1c 6y ago
> Rampant money printing is eroding the value of money - we cannot trust Central Banks to preserve what little wealth we may have. The point of central banks is to ensure a stable value of currency. Given that we've (in the US, at least,) had very low inflation for the past 20 years; central banks are doing their job well.
- jarym 6y ago
  The reasons for the low inflation are quite specific to the US. One thing you can't escape is just how much money supply has increased - look at the M2 chart here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FRED%3AM2 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FRED%3AM2 And if that does not convince you, try SPX/M2 on a monthly - and then think again if you think they're keeping the currency stable. And if that does not convince you, try explaining why Gold is at all-time-highs. The market is not stupid, Gold is signalling what is happening very clearly.
  - jarym 6y ago
    Oh and last week Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed their first ever stake in a gold mining company. Buffett had been anti-gold since forever and had plenty unkind things to say about goldbugs (and he was right). So if he of all people are suddenly being long gold (albeit indirectly via a mining company) then it would be very unwise to write off the significance.
  - gwbas1c 6y ago
    > One thing you can't escape is just how much money supply has increased The money supply is supposed to expand as more people use it. That's why we don't use gold / silver / whatever coins anymore, we couldn't dig it out of the ground fast enough. When population grew, there wasn't enough coins to go around, so everyone just kept ledgers about who owed what to who.
    - jarym 6y ago
      Yes it is, it’s supposed to increase with population, GDP and a few other things. The US hasn’t seen population growth to justify THIS level of monetary expansion since WW2!
- shanusmagnus 6y ago
  Depends on where you look for your inflation. Some people posit that real estate, education, health care, and (now) the stock market are the sinks for inflationary money policy.
  - jarym 6y ago
    Exactly, all the money that's being printed and every asset class going higher yet the typical measure of inflation seems to stay low - I would bet the measure is wrong. In fact, it does not matter if I'm right or wrong about this, fact remains that if you're an American today and you try to go on vacation almost anywhere you'll find EVERYTHING feels expensive outside of the US. Why is that? Well the value of the dollar is at multi-month lows and heading lower vs almost any other significant currency.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    That doesn't change the fact that the currency has remained stable for consumers.

by jarym 6y ago

jarym 6y ago

To be honest, I'm surprised Bruce Schneier of all people would hold such a view - I mean, there was almost no need for internet security not THAT long ago and yet technologies like SSL/TLS, VPNs, etc. are indispensible to us today.

gwbas1c 6y ago

> Rampant money printing is eroding the value of money - we cannot trust Central Banks to preserve what little wealth we may have. The point of central banks is to ensure a stable value of currency. Given that we've (in the US, at least,) had very low inflation for the past 20 years; central banks are doing their job well.

jarym 6y ago
The reasons for the low inflation are quite specific to the US. One thing you can't escape is just how much money supply has increased - look at the M2 chart here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FRED%3AM2 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FRED%3AM2 And if that does not convince you, try SPX/M2 on a monthly - and then think again if you think they're keeping the currency stable. And if that does not convince you, try explaining why Gold is at all-time-highs. The market is not stupid, Gold is signalling what is happening very clearly.
- jarym 6y ago
  Oh and last week Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed their first ever stake in a gold mining company. Buffett had been anti-gold since forever and had plenty unkind things to say about goldbugs (and he was right). So if he of all people are suddenly being long gold (albeit indirectly via a mining company) then it would be very unwise to write off the significance.
- gwbas1c 6y ago
  > One thing you can't escape is just how much money supply has increased The money supply is supposed to expand as more people use it. That's why we don't use gold / silver / whatever coins anymore, we couldn't dig it out of the ground fast enough. When population grew, there wasn't enough coins to go around, so everyone just kept ledgers about who owed what to who.
  - jarym 6y ago
    Yes it is, it’s supposed to increase with population, GDP and a few other things. The US hasn’t seen population growth to justify THIS level of monetary expansion since WW2!
shanusmagnus 6y ago
Depends on where you look for your inflation. Some people posit that real estate, education, health care, and (now) the stock market are the sinks for inflationary money policy.
- jarym 6y ago
  Exactly, all the money that's being printed and every asset class going higher yet the typical measure of inflation seems to stay low - I would bet the measure is wrong. In fact, it does not matter if I'm right or wrong about this, fact remains that if you're an American today and you try to go on vacation almost anywhere you'll find EVERYTHING feels expensive outside of the US. Why is that? Well the value of the dollar is at multi-month lows and heading lower vs almost any other significant currency.
- imtringued 6y ago
  That doesn't change the fact that the currency has remained stable for consumers.