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Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities
- TheGrim-888 6y agoAs an analogy, opening my window increases my chance of getting skin cancer by letting more light in. Should I therefore always keep my window closed? Is the increased risk of cancer worth the benefit of having my window open? Should we all be forced to live underground, because that would definitely save a multitude of lives from skin cancer. Sports events will always increase deaths, even in non-covid times. More people will die from the regular flu and other non-covid disases. More people will die from the increased travelling and accidents from that. More people will die from the extra pollution associated with the extra amount of traveling. More people will die when stressing themselves physically to perform at a high level at the sport event. The same arguments can be made about anything humans do.
- macintux 6y agoStudying and being aware of the net impact isn’t the same as saying we need to eliminate sports.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- rossdavidh 6y agoCouldn't we go further, and just say "cities increase seasonal influenza mortality"? I mean, anything that is social, is almost certain to involve increased transmission of human-to-human infectious diseases. Live theater, classrooms, church services, drag shows, you name it, if it involves bringing a lot of people together, it's probably going to increase the spread of infectious diseases that spread by human-to-human transmission.
- seizethecheese 6y agoThis paper specifically looks at before and after a sports team arrives, so it’s independent of the effect of cities.
- josephcsible 6y agoThe point was "cities increase it too", not "it's just cities and not sports teams".
- acituan 6y agoWhich doesn’t follow because people who attend to local sporting events don’t only do that in a city, and the increase in question is upon the baseline mortality of a city. So turns out cities have a lot of headroom to increase flu mortality based on what activities take place in them and we can’t conclude “cities” as a uniform entity do increase flu mortality with the data at hand. Before the impact of their health services kicked in, cities around the world did have different covid transmission patterns.
- thepowersthatbe 6y agoNo, we can't. That realization would interfere with important narratives and is not welcome. We'll simply couple our newfound fears with our existing fears (US football brain injuries, etc.) and finally, at long last, do away with useless ableist pastimes like professional sports. Just stay home. We'll let you know if and when your allowed leave going forward.
- throwaway894345 6y agoPublic transit being another example of close-quarters contact in typically unsanitary conditions. And for those puritans who will inevitably attempt to reduce everything to a moral binary, I am not arguing against public transit. It’s a very good thing in many locations and I have no problem believing it is more ecologically friendly than many other modes of transit.
- 6y ago
- ttul 6y agoI can foresee that one of the consequences of the pandemic will be a permanent change in the way that society views transmissible diseases. Prior to March, it was okay to gather in large groups and just get sick a few times a year. After the pandemic, I’m not sure people will be okay with that anymore.
- jerkstate 6y agoI think lots of people will, but some people won’t and will attempt to dictate how everyone else lives their lives, according to their priorities. How successful will they be?
- Scoundreller 6y agoI’m hoping my cat’s vet and others will stop looking at me like a monster for skipping most vaccines. A cat that no longer goes outside and occupants that don’t interact with other cats basically means the cat is under total isolation.
- sweetbacon 6y agoUntil it eats that bug or mouse that slid into the domicile in winter, or escapes outside by accident, etc.
- Scoundreller 6y agoAnd which virus would that be that lives in cats and bugs? And the cat’s too slow to catch a mouse nowadays. But it’s the same situation: most of what you’re vaccinating against is feline specific. The cat’s free to go outside at any time, but nowadays prefers the comforts of being indoors. The only solid argument against my strategy is nosocomial infections from the vet themselves.
- acituan 6y agoMosquitos, snails, slugs and fleas can absolutely carry worms to your cat. You can carry fleas on your clothing for example if you pet an infected animal on the street.
- seizethecheese 6y agoThe money quote: “The arrival of a new professional sports team in a city, and the commencement of play by that team, increases flu mortality in the city. The largest effect comes from a new NHL team. A new NHL team moving into a city and starting play causes an increase in weekly influenza mortality of 0.382 per 100,000 residents per flu season compared to cities with no professional sports teams. Based on the sample means on Table 1, this result represents a 24.6% increase in weekly flu mortality per 100,000 residents or a total increase of about 20 flu deaths over a year in each treated city. A new NFL team moving into a city causes an increase in annual influenza mortality rates of 0.249 per flu season, a 17% increase, equivalent to about 13 additional flu deaths over 52 weeks. A city that becomes home to a new NBA team experiences an increase in flu mortality rates of 0.066 which is a 4.7% increase. The effect of a new team on flu mortality is smallest in MLB where the entry of a new team results in an increase in flu mortality rates of 0.059 or 5.3% increase.”
- koolba 6y agoThere’s clearly more impact from indoor winter sports, such as hockey, vs outdoor summer sports like football.
- wiredfool 6y agoFootball is a typical summer sport that runs from September through January.
- mattmanser 6y agoIn America? In the UK it's not played professionally at all during summer, the professional teams play it August to May.
- koolba 6y agoHa! As I wrote that I was thinking about football vs baseball and meant the latter.
- ojbyrne 6y ago
- every 6y agoMy wife and I both qualify as being in the high-risk, elderly population. Once we had some grasp of the situation, we were both in immediate agreement that our lives would have to be very different until there was an efficacious remedy. We even postponed our 40th anniversary celebration indefinitely, ala Ringo Starr. In the temporal realm everything can be replaced or done without except for life itself. It makes no difference to us what others say or do in this regard. We have cast our lot with science and best practices...
- daenz 6y agoEverything is connected. Everything we do has some impact that causes benefits and harms, and if we dig deep enough, we can certainly go down the rabbit hole of attempting to show that we're hurting the entire world by merely existing and going about our daily lives. The question that is most interesting to me is how much will people agree to give up civil liberties in response to these discoveries? Another interesting question is will we equally study the benefits associated with the thing that also has a harmful result?
- lmilcin 6y agoThe title should really say: human contact causes viruses to spread.
- williesleg 6y agoSo do car accidents on the way to and from those events. It's all fake news meant to scare you.
- jungletime 6y agoSeems like solution is open air stadiums, and minimum seat size. Sun's UV tends to kill germs, and fresh air dilutes them. We should get a study on how much cramped seating contributes to blood clots. This is definitely an issue on long flights. But probably in some stadiums too. I went to an NHL arena for a concert. Seats were so cramped, my feet were hurting halfway through. It was torture.
- fooker 6y agoStepping out of your home increases your chance of dying. Why do people go out then?