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Why stop at ICU capacity? What's been mystifying me is all the R0 graphs. They go up above 1, regions get more strict, they flatten, then slope down to around
by tunesmith 6y ago
Why stop at ICU capacity?
What's been mystifying me is all the R0 graphs. They go up above 1, regions get more strict, they flatten, then slope down to around R0=1....
and then they flatten out again. Right at around R0=1.
It's maddening. We should keep it sloping down beyond that point.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoIn most countries, maintaining the minimum restrictions needed to get R~=1 is a deliberate policy choice, not something that's happening by accident.
- tunesmith 6y agoAre they all daft? How does that make sense? R~=1 can have a low amplitude or a high amplitude. The goal should be to make the slope go down at least until contact tracing can be achieved. We have states in the US where R~=1 still means test shortages.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoMost countries' health authorities don't believe that any achievable level of infection can be controlled through contact tracing alone, so they're aiming to find an acceptable equilibrium for the next year or two until a vaccine can be widely deployed.