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There is already a pile of canary bodies on the mine floor. Just toss this one on top of it. Oil and gas is a multi-trillion dollar industry. It’s not just an

There is already a pile of canary bodies on the mine floor. Just toss this one on top of it. Oil and gas is a multi-trillion dollar industry. It’s not just an industry that a few companies rely on, or a few cities, or a few states: the economies of more than a few wealthy countries rely fully or partly on oil and gas revenue. Consequently, there has been a massively-funded multi-decade disinformation campaign w.r.t. climate change, calling itself “climate skepticism.” But: the brilliant part of this disinformation campaign was to politicize it. If it were just: “we have questions about the science”, well, once those questions are resolved, then climate skeptics have nothing left to stand on. But once you politicize it: now it’s more than the science. It’s about your tribe and your team.

kortilla 6y ago
The part that makes it difficult is that so much of modern life depends on that industry. It’s not as if the countries that depend on the revenue are the only interested parties. Lots of people enjoy global shipping, travel, local shipping, plastics, etc. It’s only in the last few years that Tesla and other autos have provided an actual feasible alternative, and that’s only one tiny slice of the market.
- jtsiskin 6y ago
  We could start by pricing in the negative externalities more accurately.
  - luckylion 6y ago
    That's difficult, I believe. I'm not against doing so, but unless you're massively redistributing wealth in societies, that would primarily hit the poor. And I'm not a fan of massive wealth-redistribution.
    - imtringued 6y ago
      Why would it primarily hit the poor? With smart policies like revenue neutral CO2 taxes they will be the ones that profit because they are the ones who pollute less than an average citizen. Unfortunately people just won't understand even if the policy is meant to help them.
AtlasBarfed 6y ago
Solar/wind needs to be vastly accelerated. Massive funding of battery, solar, and storage technologies needs to be undertaken. BEV recharging stations should be incentivized at every gas station with a one-time $50000 tax credit, decreasing $5000/year. Gas stations that do not install them should be subjected to a tax per year starting at $4000/year, increasing $1000/year to $20000/year. EVs should have an immediate $15,000 tax credit regardless of volume decreasing by $1,500/year. PHEVs of 80 mile all-electric range should receive a $10,000 tax credit regardless of volume decreasing $1,000/year. Non-hybrid cars should be subject to a $2,000 tax, increasing $200 per year until it reaches $5,000. A gasoline carbon tax commensurate with $100/ton of CO2 should be imposed on gasoline, phasing in 25% per year. Policies as aggressive as these will appear when oil/gas loses its lobbying power, which will accelerate as funding and financing dry up. Unfortunately, this should have been done decades ago. China is far ahead of the US in funding supply side/production side of BEVs, solar, and wind.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  That's an oddly specific plan that effectively transfers trillions of dollars to people who drive cars. Even in the USA, car dependence is not so universal that this makes sense. Measures that would actually be effective are much cheaper. Allowing Americans to build in and move to existing urbanized areas is the #1 most effective tool we have. If you must throw a lot of cash around, just giving everyone an electric bicycle will cost much less than your gas station idea. You save a lot more carbon per dollar with a bike giveaway than you do by subsidizing electric cars. https://www.outsideonline.com/2399731/to-save-environment-subsidize-e-bikes https://www.outsideonline.com/2399731/to-save-environment-su...
  - AtlasBarfed 6y ago
    It addresses maximizing rates of switchover to EVs based on current transportation patterns for the "near term" of 10 years. "Near term" from the standpoint of transportation infrastructure investment. Charging infrastructure for EVs will piggyback on the massive switchover infrastructure to support Wind/Solar and power transport from rural areas where those generate the best to population centers Alternative transportation hopes basically are the "EV bike" or "long range EV scooter". I'd argue for lots of investment there as well.
anonunivgrad 6y ago
When “scientists” are openly pushing for particular solutions (always involving massive government control and global wealth redistribution), they are politicizing it too. When the “green” movement also opposes the best alternative energy, nuclear, it’s worth being very suspicious. That is of course all orthogonal to whether it’s actually real and preventable and worth acting on. Though that last question requires expertise beyond climate science. It also requires a fine understanding of economics and international power politics. When climate scientists pretend to have those too, people should be skeptical.
- TearsInTheRain 6y ago
  > When “scientists” are openly pushing for particular solutions (always involving massive government control and global wealth redistribution), they are politicizing it too. Man the number of times I see climate change presented as a racial justice problem is nauseating
  - gbear605 6y ago
    It depends on what you mean - climate change is already affecting some regions of the world significantly while not affecting others at all. Climate change was a significant factor in causing the Syrian civil war [1], while I haven't been affected other than having some hot summers and mild winters. So yes, some areas - and thus some ethnic groups - are more affected. On top of that, people who are poorer are disproportionately affected by any negative effect because they have fewer resources and are thus less able to deal with it. Addressing that is social justice. [1]: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/23/1421533112.abstract https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/23/1421533112.abs...
    - luckylion 6y ago
      A country with hyper-growth in population with a very strong group-identity culture that's internally fractured into a large majority being brutally ruled by a small minority, surrounded by regional powers that are happy for any opportunity to wage proxy wars, becoming the focal point for global powers to wage proxy wars... The drought certainly didn't help and it may well have been the straw the broke the camel's back, but it wouldn't have been a major issue had they not quadrupled their population within 50 years, had a more modern economy that allowed for wide-spread participation, had a less tribal society with a democratic government and weren't in the neighborhood of Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

kortilla 6y ago

The part that makes it difficult is that so much of modern life depends on that industry. It’s not as if the countries that depend on the revenue are the only interested parties. Lots of people enjoy global shipping, travel, local shipping, plastics, etc. It’s only in the last few years that Tesla and other autos have provided an actual feasible alternative, and that’s only one tiny slice of the market.

jtsiskin 6y ago
We could start by pricing in the negative externalities more accurately.
- luckylion 6y ago
  That's difficult, I believe. I'm not against doing so, but unless you're massively redistributing wealth in societies, that would primarily hit the poor. And I'm not a fan of massive wealth-redistribution.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    Why would it primarily hit the poor? With smart policies like revenue neutral CO2 taxes they will be the ones that profit because they are the ones who pollute less than an average citizen. Unfortunately people just won't understand even if the policy is meant to help them.

AtlasBarfed 6y ago

Solar/wind needs to be vastly accelerated. Massive funding of battery, solar, and storage technologies needs to be undertaken. BEV recharging stations should be incentivized at every gas station with a one-time $50000 tax credit, decreasing $5000/year. Gas stations that do not install them should be subjected to a tax per year starting at $4000/year, increasing $1000/year to $20000/year. EVs should have an immediate $15,000 tax credit regardless of volume decreasing by $1,500/year. PHEVs of 80 mile all-electric range should receive a $10,000 tax credit regardless of volume decreasing $1,000/year. Non-hybrid cars should be subject to a $2,000 tax, increasing $200 per year until it reaches $5,000. A gasoline carbon tax commensurate with $100/ton of CO2 should be imposed on gasoline, phasing in 25% per year. Policies as aggressive as these will appear when oil/gas loses its lobbying power, which will accelerate as funding and financing dry up. Unfortunately, this should have been done decades ago. China is far ahead of the US in funding supply side/production side of BEVs, solar, and wind.

jeffbee 6y ago
That's an oddly specific plan that effectively transfers trillions of dollars to people who drive cars. Even in the USA, car dependence is not so universal that this makes sense. Measures that would actually be effective are much cheaper. Allowing Americans to build in and move to existing urbanized areas is the #1 most effective tool we have. If you must throw a lot of cash around, just giving everyone an electric bicycle will cost much less than your gas station idea. You save a lot more carbon per dollar with a bike giveaway than you do by subsidizing electric cars. https://www.outsideonline.com/2399731/to-save-environment-subsidize-e-bikes https://www.outsideonline.com/2399731/to-save-environment-su...
- AtlasBarfed 6y ago
  It addresses maximizing rates of switchover to EVs based on current transportation patterns for the "near term" of 10 years. "Near term" from the standpoint of transportation infrastructure investment. Charging infrastructure for EVs will piggyback on the massive switchover infrastructure to support Wind/Solar and power transport from rural areas where those generate the best to population centers Alternative transportation hopes basically are the "EV bike" or "long range EV scooter". I'd argue for lots of investment there as well.

anonunivgrad 6y ago

When “scientists” are openly pushing for particular solutions (always involving massive government control and global wealth redistribution), they are politicizing it too. When the “green” movement also opposes the best alternative energy, nuclear, it’s worth being very suspicious. That is of course all orthogonal to whether it’s actually real and preventable and worth acting on. Though that last question requires expertise beyond climate science. It also requires a fine understanding of economics and international power politics. When climate scientists pretend to have those too, people should be skeptical.

TearsInTheRain 6y ago
> When “scientists” are openly pushing for particular solutions (always involving massive government control and global wealth redistribution), they are politicizing it too. Man the number of times I see climate change presented as a racial justice problem is nauseating
- gbear605 6y ago
  It depends on what you mean - climate change is already affecting some regions of the world significantly while not affecting others at all. Climate change was a significant factor in causing the Syrian civil war [1], while I haven't been affected other than having some hot summers and mild winters. So yes, some areas - and thus some ethnic groups - are more affected. On top of that, people who are poorer are disproportionately affected by any negative effect because they have fewer resources and are thus less able to deal with it. Addressing that is social justice. [1]: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/23/1421533112.abstract https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/23/1421533112.abs...
  - luckylion 6y ago
    A country with hyper-growth in population with a very strong group-identity culture that's internally fractured into a large majority being brutally ruled by a small minority, surrounded by regional powers that are happy for any opportunity to wage proxy wars, becoming the focal point for global powers to wage proxy wars... The drought certainly didn't help and it may well have been the straw the broke the camel's back, but it wouldn't have been a major issue had they not quadrupled their population within 50 years, had a more modern economy that allowed for wide-spread participation, had a less tribal society with a democratic government and weren't in the neighborhood of Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.