8 ms·

Musk: Tesla Full Self-Driving is going to have 'quantum leap' with new rewrite

25 points by evo_9 6y ago

Cactus2018 6y ago
> “The Full Self-Driving improvement will come as a quantum leap, because it’s a fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak. I drive the bleeding edge alpha build in my car personally. Almost at zero interventions between home & work. Limited public release in 6 to 10 weeks.”
- patagurbon 6y ago
  >Limited public release in 6 to 10 weeks The degree to which he is willing to let the public test this software is disturbing. Sure, on the highway it may be safer than the average human. But going from any sort of alpha to a public release in 6-10 weeks on something this dangerous is nothing short of insane.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - enchiridion 6y ago
    Why? It seems that number of miles, not time alone, should dictate when it is released.
  - carlivar 6y ago
    He says a lot of things. I give it a low chance of actually happening.
solidasparagus 6y ago
Musk makes me nervous that he and his team are going to push too far and too fast with putting self-driving in the hands of real users and the ensuing disaster/public outcry is going to be cataclysmic to the self-driving field. The whole "automatically have your car come to where you are in the parking lot" was a great example of an obvious disaster in the making that they made public anyway. I hope I'm wrong.
- Waterluvian 6y ago
  The worst is all the other people on the roads and sidewalks that might pay the price for rich people gadgetry and Silicon Valley move fast and kill people.
  - kfarr 6y ago
    Already happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg
    - sharken 6y ago
      Not using the designated pedestrian crosswalk is a very unsafe practice. Still, we should expect autonomous vehicles to cope with that, which is certainly not the case yet.
      - 1DRACOSEA8 6y ago
        Get your shorts ready everybody.
- canada_dry 6y ago
  While the potential excites me (self-driving cars can't come fast enough IMHO - I despise driving) I agree. Tesla has been given an incredibly long rope by regulators and it'll just take a really terrible accident or two to bring it all to a screeching halt. It's hard to imagine Elon not realizing this, but the incessant drive to the endgame may cloud his judgement.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    ~33k people a year (About 90 per day) die in car accidents in the US because of humans. It’s us who have been given the long rope There have been four deaths while Autopilot was engaged [1], almost all because the drivers weren’t paying attention. Autopilot has been used for 3 billion miles, 1 billion with Navigate on Autopilot (automatic passing and interchange routing), and 200,000 automated lane changes [2]. Is this not impressive? Yes, self driving is hard. Yes, there will be fatalities due to edge cases. It is unreasonable to confine the tech to a test track until it’s perfect, considering the human incurred death rate as it stands. We should be racing to take the person out of the driver’s seat. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_self-driving_car_fatalities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_self-driving_car_fatal... [2] https://electrek.co/2020/04/22/tesla-autopilot-data-3-billion-miles/ https://electrek.co/2020/04/22/tesla-autopilot-data-3-billio...
peacefulhat 6y ago
> Almost at zero interventions "Almost" doing a lot of work here.
- jasongill 6y ago
  Plus, it seems like the fewer interventions are needed without being zero, the more dangerous the system might be. I can see being lulled into a false sense of security if you have to do nothing most of the time - it's the times you need to do something (especially quickly) that you won't be paying attention and you end up under the semi or in the barrier. Exciting, but literally "bleeding edge" stuff here.
  - kfarr 6y ago
    Zero interventions *except when you might run into something
  - gundmc 6y ago
    This is why I think Waymo got it right that they were never going to market with level 3 self driving. You can't reasonably expect people to pay attention all the time when it works on its own 99.7% of the time.
dopylitty 6y ago
Quantum leap straight into the side of a firetruck.
- tdeck 6y ago
  The Sinclair QL was the first thing I thought of.
jklm 6y ago
I find it interesting that people equate/equated Elon Musk with Tony Stark. Years in the future, I think there’s a good chance people will look back and instead recognize him as an incredibly talented salesperson.
- electriclove 6y ago
  I find it interesting how polarizing he is to many people. Why is it hard to accept he has many flaws and strong suits?
  - dagmx 6y ago
    People tend to not like to think of others in shades of grey, especially of celebrities. It's what leads to cult of personality or deep hatred.
  - api 6y ago
    Years ago when he acquired a cult of personality and could do no wrong, I knew it was going to swing the other way. I never subscribed to either view. He's a brilliant engineer and a talented businessman with some apparently significant personality flaws or emotional regulation issues. In other words he's human.
    - xkjkls 6y ago
      The problem with alot of people isn't the emotional regulation; it's the way he runs his businesses. He embraces a fake-it-till-you make it mindset to a huge degree. He's done so many things that are either fraud, near-fraud, or completely dishonest that it makes it impossible to support someone like that in his position.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    It isn't very interesting. Elon is an attention seeking narcissist. He looks for it. When he runs around Twitter calling people paedophiles he's going to have opinions formed about him. What other outcome would you expect? Elon's latest pronouncement is that Americans are complacent and entitled, especially Californians and New Yorkers. It's not exactly a roadmap to having people think highly of him.
anongoesprivate 6y ago
i dont know the legal barriers or if some one tried it before, but self driving cars should train their model in Indian traffic with a human supervision , the traffic is very unpredictable and mostly experienced humans who have driven there long has nailed how to drive there, it will give some interesting data points
iamleppert 6y ago
What is the legality of using an alpha quality build of autonomous driving software on a public road? The other drivers on the road obviously haven’t given their consent. If I could prove I was on the road when he was and he passed me while his alpha software was running could I get a lawyer and sue?
- tidal5 6y ago
  Exactly what I was thinking, maybe it's attuned to manufacturer vs owner legal statue.
- gundmc 6y ago
  IANAL, but I don't see how you would have standing to sue if he simply passed you on the road. If he crashed into you, sure.
chmaynard 6y ago
Note to Tesla board: Your CEO stopped taking his meds again. Time to change the password on his Twitter account.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
jelder 6y ago
So, the smallest measurable change?

25 points by evo_9 6y ago

Cactus2018 6y ago

> “The Full Self-Driving improvement will come as a quantum leap, because it’s a fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak. I drive the bleeding edge alpha build in my car personally. Almost at zero interventions between home & work. Limited public release in 6 to 10 weeks.”

patagurbon 6y ago
>Limited public release in 6 to 10 weeks The degree to which he is willing to let the public test this software is disturbing. Sure, on the highway it may be safer than the average human. But going from any sort of alpha to a public release in 6-10 weeks on something this dangerous is nothing short of insane.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- enchiridion 6y ago
  Why? It seems that number of miles, not time alone, should dictate when it is released.
- carlivar 6y ago
  He says a lot of things. I give it a low chance of actually happening.

solidasparagus 6y ago

Musk makes me nervous that he and his team are going to push too far and too fast with putting self-driving in the hands of real users and the ensuing disaster/public outcry is going to be cataclysmic to the self-driving field. The whole "automatically have your car come to where you are in the parking lot" was a great example of an obvious disaster in the making that they made public anyway. I hope I'm wrong.

Waterluvian 6y ago
The worst is all the other people on the roads and sidewalks that might pay the price for rich people gadgetry and Silicon Valley move fast and kill people.
- kfarr 6y ago
  Already happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg
  - sharken 6y ago
    Not using the designated pedestrian crosswalk is a very unsafe practice. Still, we should expect autonomous vehicles to cope with that, which is certainly not the case yet.
    - 1DRACOSEA8 6y ago
      Get your shorts ready everybody.
canada_dry 6y ago
While the potential excites me (self-driving cars can't come fast enough IMHO - I despise driving) I agree. Tesla has been given an incredibly long rope by regulators and it'll just take a really terrible accident or two to bring it all to a screeching halt. It's hard to imagine Elon not realizing this, but the incessant drive to the endgame may cloud his judgement.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  ~33k people a year (About 90 per day) die in car accidents in the US because of humans. It’s us who have been given the long rope There have been four deaths while Autopilot was engaged [1], almost all because the drivers weren’t paying attention. Autopilot has been used for 3 billion miles, 1 billion with Navigate on Autopilot (automatic passing and interchange routing), and 200,000 automated lane changes [2]. Is this not impressive? Yes, self driving is hard. Yes, there will be fatalities due to edge cases. It is unreasonable to confine the tech to a test track until it’s perfect, considering the human incurred death rate as it stands. We should be racing to take the person out of the driver’s seat. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_self-driving_car_fatalities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_self-driving_car_fatal... [2] https://electrek.co/2020/04/22/tesla-autopilot-data-3-billion-miles/ https://electrek.co/2020/04/22/tesla-autopilot-data-3-billio...

peacefulhat 6y ago

> Almost at zero interventions "Almost" doing a lot of work here.

jasongill 6y ago
Plus, it seems like the fewer interventions are needed without being zero, the more dangerous the system might be. I can see being lulled into a false sense of security if you have to do nothing most of the time - it's the times you need to do something (especially quickly) that you won't be paying attention and you end up under the semi or in the barrier. Exciting, but literally "bleeding edge" stuff here.
- kfarr 6y ago
  Zero interventions *except when you might run into something
- gundmc 6y ago
  This is why I think Waymo got it right that they were never going to market with level 3 self driving. You can't reasonably expect people to pay attention all the time when it works on its own 99.7% of the time.

dopylitty 6y ago

Quantum leap straight into the side of a firetruck.

tdeck 6y ago
The Sinclair QL was the first thing I thought of.

jklm 6y ago

I find it interesting that people equate/equated Elon Musk with Tony Stark. Years in the future, I think there’s a good chance people will look back and instead recognize him as an incredibly talented salesperson.

electriclove 6y ago
I find it interesting how polarizing he is to many people. Why is it hard to accept he has many flaws and strong suits?
- dagmx 6y ago
  People tend to not like to think of others in shades of grey, especially of celebrities. It's what leads to cult of personality or deep hatred.
- api 6y ago
  Years ago when he acquired a cult of personality and could do no wrong, I knew it was going to swing the other way. I never subscribed to either view. He's a brilliant engineer and a talented businessman with some apparently significant personality flaws or emotional regulation issues. In other words he's human.
  - xkjkls 6y ago
    The problem with alot of people isn't the emotional regulation; it's the way he runs his businesses. He embraces a fake-it-till-you make it mindset to a huge degree. He's done so many things that are either fraud, near-fraud, or completely dishonest that it makes it impossible to support someone like that in his position.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  It isn't very interesting. Elon is an attention seeking narcissist. He looks for it. When he runs around Twitter calling people paedophiles he's going to have opinions formed about him. What other outcome would you expect? Elon's latest pronouncement is that Americans are complacent and entitled, especially Californians and New Yorkers. It's not exactly a roadmap to having people think highly of him.

anongoesprivate 6y ago

i dont know the legal barriers or if some one tried it before, but self driving cars should train their model in Indian traffic with a human supervision , the traffic is very unpredictable and mostly experienced humans who have driven there long has nailed how to drive there, it will give some interesting data points

iamleppert 6y ago

What is the legality of using an alpha quality build of autonomous driving software on a public road? The other drivers on the road obviously haven’t given their consent. If I could prove I was on the road when he was and he passed me while his alpha software was running could I get a lawyer and sue?

tidal5 6y ago
Exactly what I was thinking, maybe it's attuned to manufacturer vs owner legal statue.
gundmc 6y ago
IANAL, but I don't see how you would have standing to sue if he simply passed you on the road. If he crashed into you, sure.

chmaynard 6y ago

Note to Tesla board: Your CEO stopped taking his meds again. Time to change the password on his Twitter account.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

jelder 6y ago

So, the smallest measurable change?