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A lot of people are giving Epic a hard time for this, but I think it takes quite a bit of gusto to disrupt such an insane moneymaker in order to rally its userb

A lot of people are giving Epic a hard time for this, but I think it takes quite a bit of gusto to disrupt such an insane moneymaker in order to rally its userbase against these anti-competitive practices.

throwaw4y-plate 6y ago
They must have wargamed this out and feel like it's a winner.
- elmo2you 6y ago
  You can bet on it that this is part of a larger game of chess. Certainly not the rebellious resistance fight of an underdog, as it is mostly being presented. More like cannibalization between several large and ruthless corporations, and mostly because those who should have protected this market from being cornered into its current corrupt state, miserably failed at that (time and again). Many may be hopeful about the results of this move, which is no doubt part of Epic's strategy. However, I expect that the results will mostly just favor the bottom line of whoever wins this fight. I'm rather convinced that it won't be much of an improvement for end users. Maybe end users will benefit for a short while after a victory by Epic, until the company decides to "cash in" on their win and end users will (again) get pretty much what they had up till now. Because that is apparently what Epic can charge its users.
- MBCook 6y ago
  I imagine both of them and Apple (and possibly Google) have. Well we don’t know for sure there’s a very good chance the negotiations have been going on behind the scenes and they finally broke down far enough that Epic decided to pull the trigger and force the issue.
  - m000 6y ago
    Apple and Google also being prepared doesn't mean much for the final outcome of the case. Even if Apple and Google have wargamed the move and found out they would definitely lose, would they do anything without first being confronted? I'd bet they wouldn't, because that would be several hundreds of millions in lost revenue. It's better for them to stay quiet, perhaps try to appease under the table those who have deep enough pockets to challenge them (e.g. Amazon), keep milking the cow for as long as possible.
    - smiley1437 6y ago
      I agree with what you said, but I think you might not have the scale right it's not hundreds of millions of lost revenue, it's many BILLIONS. In 2019, the App Store had a gross revenue of 54 billion. Apple's cut should be 30% of that, or 16.2 billion. Multiply that over several decades, and also consider that gross revenue of the App Store is growing at around 10% per year - we are talking about over 200 billion of revenue for Apple over the next decade, minimum. So yes - this is a big deal!
- tinco 6y ago
  If this gambit doesn't pan out, they can just return to the status quo, it's not like Apple would ever permanently ban them, nor would they even reneg on the 30%. So the only loss is the time they're off the store, plus legal. They just need to get this lawsuit started, maybe lose a couple weeks profits from the iOS store, and they've created the possibility of permanently increasing profits by 20%.
  - tln 6y ago
    They reduced prices on all platforms though. And iOS users aren't 100% of Fortnite purchasers. I haven't yet found a good source but from [0] which says ~$300mm/mo total and ~$30mm/mo iOS it's 10% (higher than I expected tbh). So they lose 100% of iOS revenue and 20% of PC and console revenue from this. If Epic wins and are allowed to offer alternate IAP for 20% discount, that increase profits for Fortnite on iOS by 10%, but all the other Fortnite platforms lose 20%. Maybe Epic will raise the virtual prices of Fortnite goods over time to make up for it, eg a skin will be 1500 vbucks instead of 1250. But I'm guessing Epic has larger ambitions, such as making V-bucks systems for all games that use Unreal Engine. [0] https://www.businessofapps.com/data/fortnite-statistics/#2 https://www.businessofapps.com/data/fortnite-statistics/#2
    - Kuinox 6y ago
      They don't play only on one device, a lot of players will fallback on another device.
    - wayneftw 6y ago
      I would bet that out of mobile users, the majority of them are on iOS. That’s because 90% of kids and teens are on iOS and not Android. I’ve read it a number of times but here’s the top link from today’s search for this - https://9to5mac.com/2019/04/08/iphone-apple-watch-teen-survey-2019/ https://9to5mac.com/2019/04/08/iphone-apple-watch-teen-surve...
MBCook 6y ago
Really? I don’t think I’ve seen anyone today with an anti-Epic take. Maybe I just haven’t gone down far enough in the comments.
- partiallypro 6y ago
  Look on Twitter & Instagram. HN isn't going to be the place to find comments going against developers.
  - MBCook 6y ago
    The Apple sphere people I follow (mostly app developers) is giddy about this.
- judge2020 6y ago
  There was a lot of debate on whether or not Apple should allow third-party app stores/easily sideloaded apps, which really shouldn't be the debate since Epic already had Fortnite on Android via a third-party launcher and went to the Play store anyways. The debate needs to be on whether or not they should take a cut on in-app purchases, and/or what that cut should be, and/or if they should allow third-party processors where the store owner doesn't see profit.
- echelon 6y ago
  Twitter has Apple fans rushing to criticize Epic. I'm absolutely flabbergasted the freedom disruption blinders are so strong. Why anyone supports Apple is a mystery to me. What if the web forced you to use Apple Payments? What if Microsoft forced all installs to go through the Microsoft Store? Apple took focus from the web and then extinguished openness. It's tyranny.
  - bhupy 6y ago
    I'll try and play devil's advocate for you. Apple recently rolled out "Sign-In With Apple", which creates burner e-mail address that you can seamlessly use with 3rd party services. As a privacy-conscious consumer, this was great! On top of that, Apple forced all of its developers to support "Sign-In With Apple". This is one of the many reasons I continue to use Apple's phone and OS, because it gives me some peace of mind. Apple Payments, similarly, gives me some financial peace of mind by providing me with one centralized place where I can view and cancel my subscriptions/purchases. I can't tell you how many times I've forgotten to unsubscribe from a service that I don't use. With Apple's in-app payments system, I can keep tabs on everything. It's like a user-friendly financial reconciliation layer. Both of these Apple services place some amount of burden on the developer, and I'd even argue that the first example was pretty broadly celebrated by privacy-minded HN readers. The strongest devil's advocate argument is that the second example provides the same value to Apple customers, and that's a distinguishing feature of its platform that it ought to be able to maintain. There's a strong argument to be made that one ought to be able to side-load apps and install competing app stores on their iPhones (I tend to agree), but that's somewhat orthogonal to this particular issue, especially considering the Google Play Store action.
pvg 6y ago
Why does it take gusto?
draw_down 6y ago
Bully for them if they win, I'm just not sure why I'm supposed to be taking sides in this fight. It's not exactly David and Goliath, at least as far as I can see.
AJ007 6y ago
Tim Sweeney was outspoken about Microsoft’s attempt to force their “App Store” down windows users throats. Microsoft backed down, has certainly moved in a more developer friendly direction, and arguably may have saved their own asses in the process. For everyone defending Apple, consider your main desktop/laptop computer and how you would feel if all of the apps you installed not only had to be downloaded from Apple/Dell/Lenovo/Microsoft but also 30% of any software or subscriptions you bought on that device went to one of those companies. Apple sells devices with high margins on top of all of this. Which is probably why they are the most valuable public company in the world besides maybe Saudi Aramco.
- donmcronald 6y ago
  I never got into mobile development because I didn’t think there was any way Apple’s App Store would survive asking for a 30% cut and final say on distribution. And now it’s way worse than it was in the beginning. There’s way less upside for small developers and a lot more risk of being rejected IMO.
ashtonkem 6y ago
How does a rallied user base win a lawsuit?
- googthrowaway42 6y ago
  In the real world public pressure does affect court cases. Also there's clearly an attempt here to get political action on this issue.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    A bunch of pissed off gamers harassing judges is more liable to backfire than anything else, if the goal is to rally the base. As far as politics goes, you can forget about it in America at least. The senate can’t figure out how to deal with the economic fallout from this pandemic; the idea that they’d be able to pass a law on this is genuinely laughable.
    - chillfox 6y ago
      It might cause some action in Europe, they are getting tired of dealing with brexit and are itching for something. That something else could be bashing Apple and Google.
- chillfox 6y ago
  It doesn't, but it can help in other ways. It can force regulators to act. It can put pressure on politicians to create new laws.

throwaw4y-plate 6y ago

They must have wargamed this out and feel like it's a winner.

elmo2you 6y ago
You can bet on it that this is part of a larger game of chess. Certainly not the rebellious resistance fight of an underdog, as it is mostly being presented. More like cannibalization between several large and ruthless corporations, and mostly because those who should have protected this market from being cornered into its current corrupt state, miserably failed at that (time and again). Many may be hopeful about the results of this move, which is no doubt part of Epic's strategy. However, I expect that the results will mostly just favor the bottom line of whoever wins this fight. I'm rather convinced that it won't be much of an improvement for end users. Maybe end users will benefit for a short while after a victory by Epic, until the company decides to "cash in" on their win and end users will (again) get pretty much what they had up till now. Because that is apparently what Epic can charge its users.
MBCook 6y ago
I imagine both of them and Apple (and possibly Google) have. Well we don’t know for sure there’s a very good chance the negotiations have been going on behind the scenes and they finally broke down far enough that Epic decided to pull the trigger and force the issue.
- m000 6y ago
  Apple and Google also being prepared doesn't mean much for the final outcome of the case. Even if Apple and Google have wargamed the move and found out they would definitely lose, would they do anything without first being confronted? I'd bet they wouldn't, because that would be several hundreds of millions in lost revenue. It's better for them to stay quiet, perhaps try to appease under the table those who have deep enough pockets to challenge them (e.g. Amazon), keep milking the cow for as long as possible.
  - smiley1437 6y ago
    I agree with what you said, but I think you might not have the scale right it's not hundreds of millions of lost revenue, it's many BILLIONS. In 2019, the App Store had a gross revenue of 54 billion. Apple's cut should be 30% of that, or 16.2 billion. Multiply that over several decades, and also consider that gross revenue of the App Store is growing at around 10% per year - we are talking about over 200 billion of revenue for Apple over the next decade, minimum. So yes - this is a big deal!
tinco 6y ago
If this gambit doesn't pan out, they can just return to the status quo, it's not like Apple would ever permanently ban them, nor would they even reneg on the 30%. So the only loss is the time they're off the store, plus legal. They just need to get this lawsuit started, maybe lose a couple weeks profits from the iOS store, and they've created the possibility of permanently increasing profits by 20%.
- tln 6y ago
  They reduced prices on all platforms though. And iOS users aren't 100% of Fortnite purchasers. I haven't yet found a good source but from [0] which says ~$300mm/mo total and ~$30mm/mo iOS it's 10% (higher than I expected tbh). So they lose 100% of iOS revenue and 20% of PC and console revenue from this. If Epic wins and are allowed to offer alternate IAP for 20% discount, that increase profits for Fortnite on iOS by 10%, but all the other Fortnite platforms lose 20%. Maybe Epic will raise the virtual prices of Fortnite goods over time to make up for it, eg a skin will be 1500 vbucks instead of 1250. But I'm guessing Epic has larger ambitions, such as making V-bucks systems for all games that use Unreal Engine. [0] https://www.businessofapps.com/data/fortnite-statistics/#2 https://www.businessofapps.com/data/fortnite-statistics/#2
  - Kuinox 6y ago
    They don't play only on one device, a lot of players will fallback on another device.
  - wayneftw 6y ago
    I would bet that out of mobile users, the majority of them are on iOS. That’s because 90% of kids and teens are on iOS and not Android. I’ve read it a number of times but here’s the top link from today’s search for this - https://9to5mac.com/2019/04/08/iphone-apple-watch-teen-survey-2019/ https://9to5mac.com/2019/04/08/iphone-apple-watch-teen-surve...

MBCook 6y ago

Really? I don’t think I’ve seen anyone today with an anti-Epic take. Maybe I just haven’t gone down far enough in the comments.

partiallypro 6y ago
Look on Twitter & Instagram. HN isn't going to be the place to find comments going against developers.
- MBCook 6y ago
  The Apple sphere people I follow (mostly app developers) is giddy about this.
judge2020 6y ago
There was a lot of debate on whether or not Apple should allow third-party app stores/easily sideloaded apps, which really shouldn't be the debate since Epic already had Fortnite on Android via a third-party launcher and went to the Play store anyways. The debate needs to be on whether or not they should take a cut on in-app purchases, and/or what that cut should be, and/or if they should allow third-party processors where the store owner doesn't see profit.
echelon 6y ago
Twitter has Apple fans rushing to criticize Epic. I'm absolutely flabbergasted the freedom disruption blinders are so strong. Why anyone supports Apple is a mystery to me. What if the web forced you to use Apple Payments? What if Microsoft forced all installs to go through the Microsoft Store? Apple took focus from the web and then extinguished openness. It's tyranny.
- bhupy 6y ago
  I'll try and play devil's advocate for you. Apple recently rolled out "Sign-In With Apple", which creates burner e-mail address that you can seamlessly use with 3rd party services. As a privacy-conscious consumer, this was great! On top of that, Apple forced all of its developers to support "Sign-In With Apple". This is one of the many reasons I continue to use Apple's phone and OS, because it gives me some peace of mind. Apple Payments, similarly, gives me some financial peace of mind by providing me with one centralized place where I can view and cancel my subscriptions/purchases. I can't tell you how many times I've forgotten to unsubscribe from a service that I don't use. With Apple's in-app payments system, I can keep tabs on everything. It's like a user-friendly financial reconciliation layer. Both of these Apple services place some amount of burden on the developer, and I'd even argue that the first example was pretty broadly celebrated by privacy-minded HN readers. The strongest devil's advocate argument is that the second example provides the same value to Apple customers, and that's a distinguishing feature of its platform that it ought to be able to maintain. There's a strong argument to be made that one ought to be able to side-load apps and install competing app stores on their iPhones (I tend to agree), but that's somewhat orthogonal to this particular issue, especially considering the Google Play Store action.

pvg 6y ago

Why does it take gusto?

draw_down 6y ago

Bully for them if they win, I'm just not sure why I'm supposed to be taking sides in this fight. It's not exactly David and Goliath, at least as far as I can see.

AJ007 6y ago

Tim Sweeney was outspoken about Microsoft’s attempt to force their “App Store” down windows users throats. Microsoft backed down, has certainly moved in a more developer friendly direction, and arguably may have saved their own asses in the process. For everyone defending Apple, consider your main desktop/laptop computer and how you would feel if all of the apps you installed not only had to be downloaded from Apple/Dell/Lenovo/Microsoft but also 30% of any software or subscriptions you bought on that device went to one of those companies. Apple sells devices with high margins on top of all of this. Which is probably why they are the most valuable public company in the world besides maybe Saudi Aramco.

donmcronald 6y ago
I never got into mobile development because I didn’t think there was any way Apple’s App Store would survive asking for a 30% cut and final say on distribution. And now it’s way worse than it was in the beginning. There’s way less upside for small developers and a lot more risk of being rejected IMO.

ashtonkem 6y ago

How does a rallied user base win a lawsuit?

googthrowaway42 6y ago
In the real world public pressure does affect court cases. Also there's clearly an attempt here to get political action on this issue.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  A bunch of pissed off gamers harassing judges is more liable to backfire than anything else, if the goal is to rally the base. As far as politics goes, you can forget about it in America at least. The senate can’t figure out how to deal with the economic fallout from this pandemic; the idea that they’d be able to pass a law on this is genuinely laughable.
  - chillfox 6y ago
    It might cause some action in Europe, they are getting tired of dealing with brexit and are itching for something. That something else could be bashing Apple and Google.
chillfox 6y ago
It doesn't, but it can help in other ways. It can force regulators to act. It can put pressure on politicians to create new laws.