6 ms·

> Their ability to spread to adults is their biggest risk factor Others have mentioned this, but just for emphasis: you do not know that. Nor does anyone else.

by _jal 6y ago

> Their ability to spread to adults is their biggest risk factor Others have mentioned this, but just for emphasis: you do not know that. Nor does anyone else. Repeating it is irresponsible, and you should stop doing that. There have been a lot of lessons the epidemic can teach us. But one big one is that magical thinking is still accepted as a substitute for reason by a frightening number of people, and that's before you get to the outright grifters.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
Nobody knows anything for sure, but "the virus might be causing huge hidden damage to kids" is in the same kind of unlikely tail risk as "social distancing might be building up so much social pressure it'll cause a violent revolution". Sure, it might be, but speculation like that can't be a primary factor in decisionmaking.
koolba 6y ago
But we do know that. Or at least we can glean as much based upon the distribution by age for hospital admittance and death. We don’t know what, if any, the long term consequences will be. But the short term death risk for young children appears to be minimal.
- tptacek 6y ago
  The difference in worry parents have over short term and "long term" death risks for their kids is marginal. In particular: if something could happen to jeopardize your kids lives while they are still kids --- which we do not know --- it's an overwhelming worry. This is one of those conversations where message board logic stands a good chance of taking us far away from how real-world humans would reason.
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    I think all it really does is that it highlights the difference between those who have children and those who do not. As a parent, I couldn't care less about the monetary impact of COVID-19 beyond the basics to survive and the years have taught us to be very frugal when we need to be. Meanwhile, the thought of sending my kids back to school in two weeks has me sleepless (again). We have already seen different evidence surface in the last month or so but zero adjustment to the school plans. As much as I would like to approach this all in a dispassionate and rational way the parent 'module' in me tells me in no uncertain terms that I'm doing something irresponsible by not standing up for them more forcefully and trusting the experts on this.
    - tptacek 6y ago
      My kids are going back to college in a couple days. They're adults! They're sharing an apartment this semester! And I'm a wreck. It's hard for me to fathom how this story is even news. What would be shocking is if the numbers had come in any closer between infection and work.
      - jacquesm 6y ago
        Ugh. I feel for you. That's a tough position to be in, college is if possible even worse than grade school where mine are going. Even so in your case the risk is clear and present, and the University teachers are going to be a lot more likely to establish what their own risk appetite is than grade school teachers. This whole situation sucks. Way too many unknowns and too many people pretending there is no problem. I'm not looking forward to this winter. It seems like a perfect storm is brewing: COVID-19 resurgence, US Elections (which will generate a lot of friction no matter what the outcome), Brexit. This will be a rough ride. Hang in there.
      - greedo 6y ago
        My oldest daughter left for college yesterday, living in a dorm. She's only 10min away, but between having her move out and worrying about COVID, I'm a basket case. I expect the campus to shut down in a month when cases numbers balloon, but I hope I'm wrong and they keep things under control.
        seunosewa 6y ago
        You should strongly encourage your daughter to commute from home, since her college is only 10 minutes away. Students will take precautions during classes which will limit the spread, but in the evenings when they return to their dorms, they will let down their guards and the inevitable will happen. COVID spreads easily in dorms.
        gremlinsinc 6y ago
        There's also the potential that they bring it home, causing the op to get sick/die. I'm a little more afraid of dying early, not because I want to live, but because : A. I don't want my kids to grow up w/out a dad, and B. I don't want to miss the important things in life. C. I'm hoping their chance of serious illness is less, but if I were wrong, I'd wish for death quickly afterwards. I'm also sure things are easier when you have a parent to lean on for support, when a crisis comes up. (Lots of those on the horizon)...i'd rather be here to help them w/ that. So part of me feels me living is important to their survival (mine are <4 yrs old - 2 boys, I'm 40). So, it might be safer and less traumatic if they stayed in the dorm, assuming they're healthy and have higher chances, and assuming they're good at social distancing / masking up to keep viral load down. It'd be a hard decision to weigh, but I'd probably have a family council discuss the pros and cons and call a vote or something. Basically commute or dorms, they can still catch it. At least in dorms maybe they don't infect older more vulnerable people or family members. Honestly, I'd probably teach them to code and say, hey work w/ dad till this is over then go to college :).
- elliekelly 6y ago
  If there is any group we should be most cautious about when it comes to the unknown long-term risks it's children because they have the longest term that they'll be stuck dealing with it. For a 60 or 70 year old when we talk "long-term effects" we're talking 10-20 years. When we're talking about potential long-term effects for a 10 year old it's an entire lifetime - 50, 60, 70, even 80 years of unknown physical and financial burden. I'm not a parent but it seems perfectly reasonable to me that parents would be very troubled by that kind of potential downside no matter how remote or unknown or unquantifiable the possibility.
stickfigure 6y ago
> you do not know that You also don't know that the virus won't give you superpowers, but you'd be foolish to act like it. According to the best evidence we have, children are very very unlikely to suffer serious consequences from covid-19. Yes, it's possible that there are future complications we aren't yet aware of - but we don't presently have any reason to expect it. We have to live based on probabilities, not possibilities. 800 kids drown each year in swimming pools. We live with the risk because swimming is great. So is going outside, seeing other humans, and getting educated.

by _jal 6y ago

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

Nobody knows anything for sure, but "the virus might be causing huge hidden damage to kids" is in the same kind of unlikely tail risk as "social distancing might be building up so much social pressure it'll cause a violent revolution". Sure, it might be, but speculation like that can't be a primary factor in decisionmaking.

koolba 6y ago

But we do know that. Or at least we can glean as much based upon the distribution by age for hospital admittance and death. We don’t know what, if any, the long term consequences will be. But the short term death risk for young children appears to be minimal.

tptacek 6y ago
The difference in worry parents have over short term and "long term" death risks for their kids is marginal. In particular: if something could happen to jeopardize your kids lives while they are still kids --- which we do not know --- it's an overwhelming worry. This is one of those conversations where message board logic stands a good chance of taking us far away from how real-world humans would reason.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  I think all it really does is that it highlights the difference between those who have children and those who do not. As a parent, I couldn't care less about the monetary impact of COVID-19 beyond the basics to survive and the years have taught us to be very frugal when we need to be. Meanwhile, the thought of sending my kids back to school in two weeks has me sleepless (again). We have already seen different evidence surface in the last month or so but zero adjustment to the school plans. As much as I would like to approach this all in a dispassionate and rational way the parent 'module' in me tells me in no uncertain terms that I'm doing something irresponsible by not standing up for them more forcefully and trusting the experts on this.
  - tptacek 6y ago
    My kids are going back to college in a couple days. They're adults! They're sharing an apartment this semester! And I'm a wreck. It's hard for me to fathom how this story is even news. What would be shocking is if the numbers had come in any closer between infection and work.
    - jacquesm 6y ago
      Ugh. I feel for you. That's a tough position to be in, college is if possible even worse than grade school where mine are going. Even so in your case the risk is clear and present, and the University teachers are going to be a lot more likely to establish what their own risk appetite is than grade school teachers. This whole situation sucks. Way too many unknowns and too many people pretending there is no problem. I'm not looking forward to this winter. It seems like a perfect storm is brewing: COVID-19 resurgence, US Elections (which will generate a lot of friction no matter what the outcome), Brexit. This will be a rough ride. Hang in there.
    - greedo 6y ago
      My oldest daughter left for college yesterday, living in a dorm. She's only 10min away, but between having her move out and worrying about COVID, I'm a basket case. I expect the campus to shut down in a month when cases numbers balloon, but I hope I'm wrong and they keep things under control.
      - seunosewa 6y ago
        You should strongly encourage your daughter to commute from home, since her college is only 10 minutes away. Students will take precautions during classes which will limit the spread, but in the evenings when they return to their dorms, they will let down their guards and the inevitable will happen. COVID spreads easily in dorms.
        gremlinsinc 6y ago
        There's also the potential that they bring it home, causing the op to get sick/die. I'm a little more afraid of dying early, not because I want to live, but because : A. I don't want my kids to grow up w/out a dad, and B. I don't want to miss the important things in life. C. I'm hoping their chance of serious illness is less, but if I were wrong, I'd wish for death quickly afterwards. I'm also sure things are easier when you have a parent to lean on for support, when a crisis comes up. (Lots of those on the horizon)...i'd rather be here to help them w/ that. So part of me feels me living is important to their survival (mine are <4 yrs old - 2 boys, I'm 40). So, it might be safer and less traumatic if they stayed in the dorm, assuming they're healthy and have higher chances, and assuming they're good at social distancing / masking up to keep viral load down. It'd be a hard decision to weigh, but I'd probably have a family council discuss the pros and cons and call a vote or something. Basically commute or dorms, they can still catch it. At least in dorms maybe they don't infect older more vulnerable people or family members. Honestly, I'd probably teach them to code and say, hey work w/ dad till this is over then go to college :).
elliekelly 6y ago
If there is any group we should be most cautious about when it comes to the unknown long-term risks it's children because they have the longest term that they'll be stuck dealing with it. For a 60 or 70 year old when we talk "long-term effects" we're talking 10-20 years. When we're talking about potential long-term effects for a 10 year old it's an entire lifetime - 50, 60, 70, even 80 years of unknown physical and financial burden. I'm not a parent but it seems perfectly reasonable to me that parents would be very troubled by that kind of potential downside no matter how remote or unknown or unquantifiable the possibility.

stickfigure 6y ago

> you do not know that You also don't know that the virus won't give you superpowers, but you'd be foolish to act like it. According to the best evidence we have, children are very very unlikely to suffer serious consequences from covid-19. Yes, it's possible that there are future complications we aren't yet aware of - but we don't presently have any reason to expect it. We have to live based on probabilities, not possibilities. 800 kids drown each year in swimming pools. We live with the risk because swimming is great. So is going outside, seeing other humans, and getting educated.