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It looks plausible that Russia is trying to follow the US playbook in Ukraine, i.e. a controllable quasi-chaotic removal of a person in power that goes against

by bitL 6y ago

It looks plausible that Russia is trying to follow the US playbook in Ukraine, i.e. a controllable quasi-chaotic removal of a person in power that goes against their interests and outlived his usefulness (this time enlarging Russia), while getting a popular support for it and making sure the other party (US) can't do the same. I don't think Russia can afford losing another buffer separating it from EU, so anything is possible.

adventured 6y ago
You say the US re Ukraine. It's actually Western European powers, which have dramatically more influence over the situation in Ukraine - they always have, and they always will - than the US does. It's hilarious that people think the US controls every aspect of planet Earth, such that it can just point its finger at things and make them the way it wants them to be. The bipolar response to US capabilities is the amusing part, the US is either a god toppling governments at will or entirely incompetent, depending on whatever narrative the anti-US contingent needs to push.
- bitL 6y ago
  I still remember the leaked Nuland's call saying "F* the EU" implying that US was the main change agent and the other caller expressing views that EU was too weak to do anything and they had to act. It looks like Russia has learned from that, manufactured consent to get rid of Lukashenko utilizing his weaknesses and expected actions (i.e. unable to resist corrupting the elections, suppressing protests by force) and had trained people in the background ready to take over. I guess Russia decided to preempt any potential US/EU action by simply replaying the same scenario they saw in Ukraine, Georgia etc. with the ability to steer its outcome at a time that is favorable to them (COVID-19, economy down).
  - gdy 6y ago
    Russian state-controlled TV channels are portraying protesters in a very negative light.
    - bitL 6y ago
      I might have overestimated how smart they were or they managed to strike an agreement with Lukashenko after a live demo of a color revolution.
      - gdy 6y ago
        Or maybe they just don't do that kind of thing. Color revolution are American specialty.
- fuoqi 6y ago
  You haven't looked deep into Ukrainian situation, do you? Western European countries have continuously expressed their frustration at the fact that Ukraine does not follow the Minsk agreements to no avail. They would like for mutual sanctions between them and Russia to be gone as soon as possible and Ukrainian unwillingness to follow Minsk agreements silently supported by US (and not so silently via supplies of lethal military equipment) makes it harder (since the civil war is still ongoing). Meanwhile Derkach tapes have shown that Ukraine wasn't far from a puppet state and for current government just a little warning from US was enough to stop any investigations into potential Poroshenko treason just because it may influence US elections. Just think about it! Also US has a significant influence over WMF, which openly dictates how Ukraine should behave in certain key areas.
sergeykish 6y ago
Unfortunately Russians can't afford peace and prosperity because of Russia interests outside of its borders. It would be great if all of this was just a computer game. Person in power was not popular and quite stupid - redirecting so much wealth in own pockets and own region, fooling on hot EU and language topics, imprisoning political opponent. The feature was gloom, he had to leave. If someone helped that's fine for me. What was not fine is seizure of land by neighbor. All the best for Belarus, hope it would not be invaded.

by bitL 6y ago

adventured 6y ago

You say the US re Ukraine. It's actually Western European powers, which have dramatically more influence over the situation in Ukraine - they always have, and they always will - than the US does. It's hilarious that people think the US controls every aspect of planet Earth, such that it can just point its finger at things and make them the way it wants them to be. The bipolar response to US capabilities is the amusing part, the US is either a god toppling governments at will or entirely incompetent, depending on whatever narrative the anti-US contingent needs to push.

bitL 6y ago
I still remember the leaked Nuland's call saying "F* the EU" implying that US was the main change agent and the other caller expressing views that EU was too weak to do anything and they had to act. It looks like Russia has learned from that, manufactured consent to get rid of Lukashenko utilizing his weaknesses and expected actions (i.e. unable to resist corrupting the elections, suppressing protests by force) and had trained people in the background ready to take over. I guess Russia decided to preempt any potential US/EU action by simply replaying the same scenario they saw in Ukraine, Georgia etc. with the ability to steer its outcome at a time that is favorable to them (COVID-19, economy down).
- gdy 6y ago
  Russian state-controlled TV channels are portraying protesters in a very negative light.
  - bitL 6y ago
    I might have overestimated how smart they were or they managed to strike an agreement with Lukashenko after a live demo of a color revolution.
    - gdy 6y ago
      Or maybe they just don't do that kind of thing. Color revolution are American specialty.
fuoqi 6y ago
You haven't looked deep into Ukrainian situation, do you? Western European countries have continuously expressed their frustration at the fact that Ukraine does not follow the Minsk agreements to no avail. They would like for mutual sanctions between them and Russia to be gone as soon as possible and Ukrainian unwillingness to follow Minsk agreements silently supported by US (and not so silently via supplies of lethal military equipment) makes it harder (since the civil war is still ongoing). Meanwhile Derkach tapes have shown that Ukraine wasn't far from a puppet state and for current government just a little warning from US was enough to stop any investigations into potential Poroshenko treason just because it may influence US elections. Just think about it! Also US has a significant influence over WMF, which openly dictates how Ukraine should behave in certain key areas.

sergeykish 6y ago

Unfortunately Russians can't afford peace and prosperity because of Russia interests outside of its borders. It would be great if all of this was just a computer game. Person in power was not popular and quite stupid - redirecting so much wealth in own pockets and own region, fooling on hot EU and language topics, imprisoning political opponent. The feature was gloom, he had to leave. If someone helped that's fine for me. What was not fine is seizure of land by neighbor. All the best for Belarus, hope it would not be invaded.