4 ms·

I just posted a link[0] with some of Friedman's response to what's going on. TLDR: aside from Belarus' geopolitical importance and predicament, it sounds like w

I just posted a link[0] with some of Friedman's response to what's going on. TLDR: aside from Belarus' geopolitical importance and predicament, it sounds like what's going on is largely a matter of speculation, though the events of the last decade read in light of geopolitical realities seem to suggest Russian involvement. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24121275 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24121275

sam_lowry_ 6y ago
Geopolitics are not at the root of the current unrest. It's just that Lukashenka built himself an army of strongmen that have nothing to loose and a servile command state. Then, expectedly, he aged and his physical and mental health deteriorated to the point that 1. Lukashenka made enemies with Russia and Putin personally. 2. Over the last few months, he managed to loose all the remaining support base he had. 3. On August, 3 he acknowledged personally ordering killings. Here are some of the nastier facts about him: 1. He isolated his first wife, the mother if his two kids and his sex toy, the mother of his third kid. They could not leave their houses for years. 2. Aged 65, he sleeps with young girls and brags about it. It's no surprise that any united opposition candidate would win the election. But Belarusians had a lucky chance to have the best ever candidate. The world completely missed out a wonderful election campaign in Belarus by three beautiful ladies that took on the leadership after their men were jailed or ran away. They were calling themselves Love, Might, Win. The lead opposition candidate, the Might of the trio emerged as the nation leader literally in a matter of weeks. Her speeches were simple, peaceful and straight to the point. She did not call people into streets. Still, every night, over 100,000 people confront the police and the army for her. Some died.
fuoqi 6y ago
>suggest Russian involvement I highly doubt it. You don't instigate protests and congratulate "winner" on the next day after election at the same time. It's far easier to pressure known leader, who has bad relations with the West (and elections only made them worse), than risk instability and weak government puppeteered by foreign forces installed after a "revolution" (see Ukraine). I previously wrote about it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24104304 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24104304
bitL 6y ago
It looks plausible that Russia is trying to follow the US playbook in Ukraine, i.e. a controllable quasi-chaotic removal of a person in power that goes against their interests and outlived his usefulness (this time enlarging Russia), while getting a popular support for it and making sure the other party (US) can't do the same. I don't think Russia can afford losing another buffer separating it from EU, so anything is possible.
- adventured 6y ago
  You say the US re Ukraine. It's actually Western European powers, which have dramatically more influence over the situation in Ukraine - they always have, and they always will - than the US does. It's hilarious that people think the US controls every aspect of planet Earth, such that it can just point its finger at things and make them the way it wants them to be. The bipolar response to US capabilities is the amusing part, the US is either a god toppling governments at will or entirely incompetent, depending on whatever narrative the anti-US contingent needs to push.
  - bitL 6y ago
    I still remember the leaked Nuland's call saying "F* the EU" implying that US was the main change agent and the other caller expressing views that EU was too weak to do anything and they had to act. It looks like Russia has learned from that, manufactured consent to get rid of Lukashenko utilizing his weaknesses and expected actions (i.e. unable to resist corrupting the elections, suppressing protests by force) and had trained people in the background ready to take over. I guess Russia decided to preempt any potential US/EU action by simply replaying the same scenario they saw in Ukraine, Georgia etc. with the ability to steer its outcome at a time that is favorable to them (COVID-19, economy down).
    - gdy 6y ago
      Russian state-controlled TV channels are portraying protesters in a very negative light.

sam_lowry_ 6y ago

Geopolitics are not at the root of the current unrest. It's just that Lukashenka built himself an army of strongmen that have nothing to loose and a servile command state. Then, expectedly, he aged and his physical and mental health deteriorated to the point that 1. Lukashenka made enemies with Russia and Putin personally. 2. Over the last few months, he managed to loose all the remaining support base he had. 3. On August, 3 he acknowledged personally ordering killings. Here are some of the nastier facts about him: 1. He isolated his first wife, the mother if his two kids and his sex toy, the mother of his third kid. They could not leave their houses for years. 2. Aged 65, he sleeps with young girls and brags about it. It's no surprise that any united opposition candidate would win the election. But Belarusians had a lucky chance to have the best ever candidate. The world completely missed out a wonderful election campaign in Belarus by three beautiful ladies that took on the leadership after their men were jailed or ran away. They were calling themselves Love, Might, Win. The lead opposition candidate, the Might of the trio emerged as the nation leader literally in a matter of weeks. Her speeches were simple, peaceful and straight to the point. She did not call people into streets. Still, every night, over 100,000 people confront the police and the army for her. Some died.

fuoqi 6y ago

>suggest Russian involvement I highly doubt it. You don't instigate protests and congratulate "winner" on the next day after election at the same time. It's far easier to pressure known leader, who has bad relations with the West (and elections only made them worse), than risk instability and weak government puppeteered by foreign forces installed after a "revolution" (see Ukraine). I previously wrote about it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24104304 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24104304

bitL 6y ago

It looks plausible that Russia is trying to follow the US playbook in Ukraine, i.e. a controllable quasi-chaotic removal of a person in power that goes against their interests and outlived his usefulness (this time enlarging Russia), while getting a popular support for it and making sure the other party (US) can't do the same. I don't think Russia can afford losing another buffer separating it from EU, so anything is possible.

adventured 6y ago
You say the US re Ukraine. It's actually Western European powers, which have dramatically more influence over the situation in Ukraine - they always have, and they always will - than the US does. It's hilarious that people think the US controls every aspect of planet Earth, such that it can just point its finger at things and make them the way it wants them to be. The bipolar response to US capabilities is the amusing part, the US is either a god toppling governments at will or entirely incompetent, depending on whatever narrative the anti-US contingent needs to push.
- bitL 6y ago
  I still remember the leaked Nuland's call saying "F* the EU" implying that US was the main change agent and the other caller expressing views that EU was too weak to do anything and they had to act. It looks like Russia has learned from that, manufactured consent to get rid of Lukashenko utilizing his weaknesses and expected actions (i.e. unable to resist corrupting the elections, suppressing protests by force) and had trained people in the background ready to take over. I guess Russia decided to preempt any potential US/EU action by simply replaying the same scenario they saw in Ukraine, Georgia etc. with the ability to steer its outcome at a time that is favorable to them (COVID-19, economy down).
  - gdy 6y ago
    Russian state-controlled TV channels are portraying protesters in a very negative light.