4 ms·

It's off-topic, but (as a non-American) I personally believe Trump will win re-election. Steve Bannon (the architect of Trump's 2016 election win) has said Trum

It's off-topic, but (as a non-American) I personally believe Trump will win re-election. Steve Bannon (the architect of Trump's 2016 election win) has said Trump will win re-election if the Chinese Communist Party is the central issue of the election (which it increasingly is). Come November they'll likely be multiple vaccine candidates in late-stage trials, and the compelling argument can be made saying the botched crisis is almost over and Trump will soon be returning the economy to four more years of ~3% growth. After the vaccine is widely deployed, whoever is President will see a year of 6+% growth (after 2020's 10+% contraction)

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
The CCP isn't a tremendously controversial issue in the US (the consensus against it is strong and bipartisan), so it's hard to see how it could become the central issue of the election.
- someperson 6y ago
  The issue is Biden appears much weaker than Trump on China. He has the baggage of being an Obama administration official (overseeing the South China Sea militarization and the US-China Cyber Agreement). Some core Trump advisors like Peter Navarro (author of "Death by China" and the associated documentary) believe in economic decoupling far more deeply Biden advisors. I agree some Democratic leaders like Chuck Schumer are hawks on China, but a Biden administration would be far less hawkish on the CCP issue than Trump. I can see Trump using the 'nuclear option' and cutting off Hong Kong's ability to conduct transactions in US dollars (fatally killing the Hong Kong economy and deeply damaging China's, and far less so America's). I can't see Biden doing that.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, it's just hard to imagine such nitty-gritty details of the US-China relationship being the central issue of this election.
    - 1MachineElf 6y ago
      I believe geopolitics were a significant part of the last POTUS election. The parties are split based on their constituents relative anxiety over Russia. Also, Hillary's "no fly zone" over Russia's naval base in Syria seemed an important issue too.
      - duskwuff 6y ago
        I think you are vastly overestimating the degree of nuance involved in that election.
    - ngold 6y ago
      I have to agree, most Americans are using nothing but Chinese made products. If there was some commie scare that would be the first thing to go.
- evan_ 6y ago
  “Disapprove” vs. “go to war with”
  - bart_spoon 6y ago
    Is there a single political figure in Washington arguing for war with the Chinese?
- Udik 6y ago
  Easy. After carefully creating the enemy in the past four years (the relationship with China was then much better and people weren't using "CCP" as a stand-in for "China"), Trump will just need to stress that he's the only one who can protect Americans from the threat- those democrats weaklings were selling the country to the CCP and will continue to do so. Job done.
jessaustin 6y ago
Useful vaccines this year is wishful thinking, but when other nations have "rebounds" it will make USA's abject failure look less bad, so it is possible Trump could "win". This is especially possible if they don't get Biden's dementia drugs tuned correctly for one or more debates. In that case the CCParty's "wait and see" strategy will have failed, so heads will roll.
- someperson 6y ago
  From what I've read it's very likely they'll be rolling out vaccines with ~50% effectiveness this year (and deploying it in high volumes in 2021). The vaccine doesn't have to be perfect. As long as it's proven safe, confers some level of protection and is deployed in badly affected areas (including nursing homes) it will help drop the death numbers and we'll reach herd immunity faster. Operation Warp Speed has meant a huge amount tax payer money is being thrown at this.
  - jessaustin 6y ago
    Everything I've heard/read on the vaccine topic has pegged my personal wishful thinking meter. We don't currently have a vaccine for any virus similar to SARS-CoV-2. The nearest thing is the annual flu vaccine, and while they are sometimes as much as 60% effective they're normally more like 40% effective. (Some people say that SARS-CoV-2 won't mutate as much as influenza, but the only reason to believe it won't mutate enough to matter [given that the D614 -> G614 spike protein mutation basically took over the world in a couple of months, and that's something we already know about] is more wishful thinking.) A vaccine anywhere near as ineffective as the flu vaccine needs to see universal treatment to even move the needle on "herd immunity". In the current climate in USA (and maybe some other nations, I don't know?) there's no way we'll get even 70% treatment. Also, it's August already. Although some other nations have fast reliable testing for anyone who needs it, USA CDC is still struggling to field a convenient test. How are these people going to crank out hundreds of millions of vaccine doses by November? That isn't totally Trump's fault, but he has certainly been among the public figures giving us the vaccine song-and-dance. He may need to somehow trick Biden into saying something like "I believe in the new vaccine that the wonderful scientists have given us" right before everyone realizes what a fairy tale it has been. We'll still see high-six-figures of Americans dead by election time. Any political machine that actually wanted to win could make a powerful argument out of all those dead people...
khuey 6y ago
I'm not sure you understand how bad the coronavirus situation is here. People's kids aren't going to be able to go to school in person this fall. Short of the outbreak of WW3 I can't imagine the pandemic not being the top issue.
- handedness 6y ago
  SARS-CoV-2 and the CPC/CCP can't be decoupled.
- gadders 6y ago
  That's mostly due to teaching unions. The risk to children from Corona virus is vanishingly small. https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49 https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-ris...
  - macintux 6y ago
    Viruses spread. It’s not just the children we’re worried about. Ask Israel how opening schools worked for them.
    - rmellow 6y ago
      There's a curiously large amount of people that just don't understand the second order effects.
      - macintux 6y ago
        At this point people understand what they want to understand. I don’t know how to fix that.
    - gadders 6y ago
      Ask Sweden. Relatively few teachers have caught COVID there. Taxi drivers have a five times higher risk than teachers. Also, it depends on the age of the pupils.
starfallg 6y ago
The problem here is that 'conservatives' in the US have been conditioned to blame all of societies ills on 'progressives'. It's a culture war. To pivot, you need to convince that China is the greatest threat and that the 'progressives' are in bed with them. With 11 weeks to go and no groundwork having been done already, it's unlikely this strategy will stick at all.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

The CCP isn't a tremendously controversial issue in the US (the consensus against it is strong and bipartisan), so it's hard to see how it could become the central issue of the election.

someperson 6y ago
The issue is Biden appears much weaker than Trump on China. He has the baggage of being an Obama administration official (overseeing the South China Sea militarization and the US-China Cyber Agreement). Some core Trump advisors like Peter Navarro (author of "Death by China" and the associated documentary) believe in economic decoupling far more deeply Biden advisors. I agree some Democratic leaders like Chuck Schumer are hawks on China, but a Biden administration would be far less hawkish on the CCP issue than Trump. I can see Trump using the 'nuclear option' and cutting off Hong Kong's ability to conduct transactions in US dollars (fatally killing the Hong Kong economy and deeply damaging China's, and far less so America's). I can't see Biden doing that.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, it's just hard to imagine such nitty-gritty details of the US-China relationship being the central issue of this election.
  - 1MachineElf 6y ago
    I believe geopolitics were a significant part of the last POTUS election. The parties are split based on their constituents relative anxiety over Russia. Also, Hillary's "no fly zone" over Russia's naval base in Syria seemed an important issue too.
    - duskwuff 6y ago
      I think you are vastly overestimating the degree of nuance involved in that election.
  - ngold 6y ago
    I have to agree, most Americans are using nothing but Chinese made products. If there was some commie scare that would be the first thing to go.
evan_ 6y ago
“Disapprove” vs. “go to war with”
- bart_spoon 6y ago
  Is there a single political figure in Washington arguing for war with the Chinese?
Udik 6y ago
Easy. After carefully creating the enemy in the past four years (the relationship with China was then much better and people weren't using "CCP" as a stand-in for "China"), Trump will just need to stress that he's the only one who can protect Americans from the threat- those democrats weaklings were selling the country to the CCP and will continue to do so. Job done.

jessaustin 6y ago

Useful vaccines this year is wishful thinking, but when other nations have "rebounds" it will make USA's abject failure look less bad, so it is possible Trump could "win". This is especially possible if they don't get Biden's dementia drugs tuned correctly for one or more debates. In that case the CCParty's "wait and see" strategy will have failed, so heads will roll.

someperson 6y ago
From what I've read it's very likely they'll be rolling out vaccines with ~50% effectiveness this year (and deploying it in high volumes in 2021). The vaccine doesn't have to be perfect. As long as it's proven safe, confers some level of protection and is deployed in badly affected areas (including nursing homes) it will help drop the death numbers and we'll reach herd immunity faster. Operation Warp Speed has meant a huge amount tax payer money is being thrown at this.
- jessaustin 6y ago
  Everything I've heard/read on the vaccine topic has pegged my personal wishful thinking meter. We don't currently have a vaccine for any virus similar to SARS-CoV-2. The nearest thing is the annual flu vaccine, and while they are sometimes as much as 60% effective they're normally more like 40% effective. (Some people say that SARS-CoV-2 won't mutate as much as influenza, but the only reason to believe it won't mutate enough to matter [given that the D614 -> G614 spike protein mutation basically took over the world in a couple of months, and that's something we already know about] is more wishful thinking.) A vaccine anywhere near as ineffective as the flu vaccine needs to see universal treatment to even move the needle on "herd immunity". In the current climate in USA (and maybe some other nations, I don't know?) there's no way we'll get even 70% treatment. Also, it's August already. Although some other nations have fast reliable testing for anyone who needs it, USA CDC is still struggling to field a convenient test. How are these people going to crank out hundreds of millions of vaccine doses by November? That isn't totally Trump's fault, but he has certainly been among the public figures giving us the vaccine song-and-dance. He may need to somehow trick Biden into saying something like "I believe in the new vaccine that the wonderful scientists have given us" right before everyone realizes what a fairy tale it has been. We'll still see high-six-figures of Americans dead by election time. Any political machine that actually wanted to win could make a powerful argument out of all those dead people...

khuey 6y ago

I'm not sure you understand how bad the coronavirus situation is here. People's kids aren't going to be able to go to school in person this fall. Short of the outbreak of WW3 I can't imagine the pandemic not being the top issue.

handedness 6y ago
SARS-CoV-2 and the CPC/CCP can't be decoupled.
gadders 6y ago
That's mostly due to teaching unions. The risk to children from Corona virus is vanishingly small. https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49 https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-ris...
- macintux 6y ago
  Viruses spread. It’s not just the children we’re worried about. Ask Israel how opening schools worked for them.
  - rmellow 6y ago
    There's a curiously large amount of people that just don't understand the second order effects.
    - macintux 6y ago
      At this point people understand what they want to understand. I don’t know how to fix that.
  - gadders 6y ago
    Ask Sweden. Relatively few teachers have caught COVID there. Taxi drivers have a five times higher risk than teachers. Also, it depends on the age of the pupils.

starfallg 6y ago

The problem here is that 'conservatives' in the US have been conditioned to blame all of societies ills on 'progressives'. It's a culture war. To pivot, you need to convince that China is the greatest threat and that the 'progressives' are in bed with them. With 11 weeks to go and no groundwork having been done already, it's unlikely this strategy will stick at all.