8 ms·

Too early, we're still in the middle of the pandemic. Who knows how numbers are going to be in October

by mtw 6y ago

NotSammyHagar 6y ago
We should have a big crash right now because all the stimulus ended, 20 million people don't have jobs and could be kicked out of their apartments and have a shortage of food access. We shouldn't celebrate before we address these larger needs.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  I'm not saying everything's good, but those are all very solvable problems in comparison to what we expected. A few months ago, grocery stores were running out of staple items by noon and there were serious concerns of a nationwide meat shortage.
  - TomSwirly 6y ago
    Nothing concerning about that. A nationwide meat shortage is entirely good.
- gruez 6y ago
  >We should have a big crash right now because all the stimulus ended It's probably not instantaneous. Other people in this thread mentioned that savings is up, so I'm guessing people have some money saved up, and therefore can probably last a few weeks (or months?) before running out of money. >could be kicked out of their apartments Aren't most cities still not processing evictions? Even if they did, the combination of social distancing restrictions (less court capacity) + flood of evictions probably means there's a huge backlog, which means very little people would end up getting evicted.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
    My city is blocking evictions but I bet smaller cities aren't.
BolexNOLA 6y ago
Yeah get ready for the rent/eviction flood gates to really open. It’s going to be brutal.
- wrsh07 6y ago
  It's not clear to me that evicting tenants who would ordinarily pay is a good strategy for landlords. Besides being a dick move, they don't have a guarantee that anyone will move in
  - mulmen 6y ago
    All the people who just got evicted? Probably a good time to invest in Uhaul. I agree, seems incredibly short sighted. I’m not a landlord so maybe I misunderstand the thinking. Is it something like tenants who get evicted then have to find even worse landlords to rent from so by evicting people in tough economic times you gain access to tenants at their lowest rate/most desperate? So effectively any tenant you get in bad economic times is someone who is more likely to be stable and reliable after recovery? I’m totally making things up at this point. It is truly baffling to me.
    - wrsh07 6y ago
      Yeah I'm sure it depends on where you live If you have tenants in NYC right now who aren't terrible, I think you want to keep them because there are a bunch of empty apts In NYC if you want a good apartment right now, you can significantly underpay for the next couple of years (if your lease is up), but a lot of people whose leases are up are leaving You make a good point, though. There will be a large shuffle for the next few months (and probably gradually back in the following years), so whoever "makes shovels" for moving will be in a good position
  - gpm 6y ago
    On the other hand if you stop evicting entirely, people suddenly have a lot less incentive to pay you. This could quickly make you short on cash. I guess you could also use it as an opportunity to get rid of the more problematic tenants in jurisdictions where that is difficult. It's not an easy problem to optimize this.
cik2e 6y ago
Much worse and possibly catastrophic if the government doesn’t get its shit together on the next stimulus. Now Trump gets to look like a hero with his executive orders, and honestly you can’t blame the administration for taking the easy layup. Hopefully this shames congress into doing its job because it’s unlikely that the critical unemployment benefit will be getting paid out anytime soon via this route.
- scarface74 6y ago
  And he wants to force the states to pay 25%.
- thechao 6y ago
  Is this one of those “there’s good people on both sides” arguments? It’s not House that can’t get their shit together, it is literally the GOP controlled Senate (specifically, Mitch McConnell) who is causing this. People are going to die because of his stonewalling — I bet it’s possible to actually calculate; what wonder how he’ll end up comparing to other psychopaths?
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    If you've come to the conclusion that the Senate majority leader is deliberately setting out to kill Americans cause he's just evil like that, you've surely made an error somewhere in your reasoning.
    - thechao 6y ago
      He’s deliberately withholding money. Money is cross-fungible with expected life-span. Therefore, the withholding of funds can be equated with loss of years; every lost ~78 years is a lost life. I used to do these analyses at UTMB Galveston when interning in the nosicomia division.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]

Too early, we're still in the middle of the pandemic. Who knows how numbers are going to be in October

by mtw 6y ago

Too early, we're still in the middle of the pandemic. Who knows how numbers are going to be in October

We should have a big crash right now because all the stimulus ended, 20 million people don't have jobs and could be kicked out of their apartments and have a shortage of food access. We shouldn't celebrate before we address these larger needs.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I'm not saying everything's good, but those are all very solvable problems in comparison to what we expected. A few months ago, grocery stores were running out of staple items by noon and there were serious concerns of a nationwide meat shortage.
- TomSwirly 6y ago
  Nothing concerning about that. A nationwide meat shortage is entirely good.
gruez 6y ago
>We should have a big crash right now because all the stimulus ended It's probably not instantaneous. Other people in this thread mentioned that savings is up, so I'm guessing people have some money saved up, and therefore can probably last a few weeks (or months?) before running out of money. >could be kicked out of their apartments Aren't most cities still not processing evictions? Even if they did, the combination of social distancing restrictions (less court capacity) + flood of evictions probably means there's a huge backlog, which means very little people would end up getting evicted.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  My city is blocking evictions but I bet smaller cities aren't.

BolexNOLA 6y ago

Yeah get ready for the rent/eviction flood gates to really open. It’s going to be brutal.

wrsh07 6y ago
It's not clear to me that evicting tenants who would ordinarily pay is a good strategy for landlords. Besides being a dick move, they don't have a guarantee that anyone will move in
- mulmen 6y ago
  All the people who just got evicted? Probably a good time to invest in Uhaul. I agree, seems incredibly short sighted. I’m not a landlord so maybe I misunderstand the thinking. Is it something like tenants who get evicted then have to find even worse landlords to rent from so by evicting people in tough economic times you gain access to tenants at their lowest rate/most desperate? So effectively any tenant you get in bad economic times is someone who is more likely to be stable and reliable after recovery? I’m totally making things up at this point. It is truly baffling to me.
  - wrsh07 6y ago
    Yeah I'm sure it depends on where you live If you have tenants in NYC right now who aren't terrible, I think you want to keep them because there are a bunch of empty apts In NYC if you want a good apartment right now, you can significantly underpay for the next couple of years (if your lease is up), but a lot of people whose leases are up are leaving You make a good point, though. There will be a large shuffle for the next few months (and probably gradually back in the following years), so whoever "makes shovels" for moving will be in a good position
- gpm 6y ago
  On the other hand if you stop evicting entirely, people suddenly have a lot less incentive to pay you. This could quickly make you short on cash. I guess you could also use it as an opportunity to get rid of the more problematic tenants in jurisdictions where that is difficult. It's not an easy problem to optimize this.

cik2e 6y ago

Much worse and possibly catastrophic if the government doesn’t get its shit together on the next stimulus. Now Trump gets to look like a hero with his executive orders, and honestly you can’t blame the administration for taking the easy layup. Hopefully this shames congress into doing its job because it’s unlikely that the critical unemployment benefit will be getting paid out anytime soon via this route.

scarface74 6y ago
And he wants to force the states to pay 25%.
thechao 6y ago
Is this one of those “there’s good people on both sides” arguments? It’s not House that can’t get their shit together, it is literally the GOP controlled Senate (specifically, Mitch McConnell) who is causing this. People are going to die because of his stonewalling — I bet it’s possible to actually calculate; what wonder how he’ll end up comparing to other psychopaths?
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  If you've come to the conclusion that the Senate majority leader is deliberately setting out to kill Americans cause he's just evil like that, you've surely made an error somewhere in your reasoning.
  - thechao 6y ago
    He’s deliberately withholding money. Money is cross-fungible with expected life-span. Therefore, the withholding of funds can be equated with loss of years; every lost ~78 years is a lost life. I used to do these analyses at UTMB Galveston when interning in the nosicomia division.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]