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Unfortunately, it turns out that the estimate of the years of life lost due to Covid per person is significantly larger than "two or three years". For example,

Unfortunately, it turns out that the estimate of the years of life lost due to Covid per person is significantly larger than "two or three years". For example, "New study finds coronavirus can cut life span by 10 years or more" (see https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/497097-those-who-died-from-covid-19-lost-more-than-a-decade-of https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/49...), and there are other more recent studies that go into more detail in the US looking at populations (https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/how-many-years-of-life-lost-due-to-covid-more-than-138000/ https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/how-many-...).

stickfigure 6y ago
Be careful, these are years of life lost for people who died of covid. Headlines like "coronavirus can cut lifespan by 10 years or more" is just sensational - for that matter, so can bowling. The average YLL for people infected with covid is vastly smaller. You still don't want it, but the actual number is measured in months.
_-___________-_ 6y ago
> New study finds coronavirus can cut life span by 10 years or more This is one of the worst headlines I've seen recently. The actual study measures years lost only of those that died. By that metric, if I cross the road today and get hit by a bus, the headline would be "crossing the road can cut life span by 40 years or more". There is zero valuable information in that headline.
- Udik 6y ago
  I don't agree. The headline contains valuable information. It says that, whatever you might think is the risk of dying once you got covid-19, on average those who died have their life shortened by about ten years. Which is not the same as dying in a traffic accident or in a war, where you can safely assume average lost lifespans of 30 or 40 years. My only issue with this title is that can- which is wrong and makes the title meaningless. The news is that on average it does cut lifespan of ten years.
- YeGoblynQueenne 6y ago
  I haven't read the article above, however there's a double standard here. I've heard, e.g. John Ioannidis (one of my personal Heroes of Science©) say that Covid-19 is not that bad because the majority of the people who die of it didn't have many quality-adjusted years of life left anyway [1]. Note that's quality-adjusted years of life for people who died with/from/by Covid-19, not of all those infected, because the majority of those infected lose 0 years of life so there's not much information in that metric, either. So, yes, it does make sense to ask "how many years a person who died of Covid-19 could still enjoy had they not died of Covid-19". Just looking at how many people died of those who were infected simply ignores the fact that many people who die of Covid-19 would otherwise have gone on happily being productive and valuable members of their respective communities - and not shuffling, moaning zombies held together by arcane necromancy, waiting for a gust of wind to disintegrate. After all, while Covid-19 is very dangerous for people over 80, it is also quite dangerous for people over 50 and over 60, and those are ages where many people haven't even retired from their careers. _____________ [1] Not a direct quote, rather one from memory. I can provide the source if needed, it's a video of an hour-long interview with Ioannidis on youtube.
nradov 6y ago
It appears that Harvard study failed to adjust for comorbid conditions such as obesity, and thus I suspect it overestimates years of life lost. We know that obesity cuts several years off of life expectancy independent of COVID-19. The typical patient who dies from COVID-19 has multiple chronic comorbid conditions.
anoncake 6y ago
The number of years of life lost due to Covid is much lower. Assuming - 60% of the population get it - the IFR is 0.6% - Everyone who dies loses on average 10 years it's 60% × 0.6% × 10yr = 0.036yr. That's less than two weeks. How much more are you willing to sacrifice for less than two weeks of lifespan?

stickfigure 6y ago

Be careful, these are years of life lost for people who died of covid. Headlines like "coronavirus can cut lifespan by 10 years or more" is just sensational - for that matter, so can bowling. The average YLL for people infected with covid is vastly smaller. You still don't want it, but the actual number is measured in months.

_-___________-_ 6y ago

> New study finds coronavirus can cut life span by 10 years or more This is one of the worst headlines I've seen recently. The actual study measures years lost only of those that died. By that metric, if I cross the road today and get hit by a bus, the headline would be "crossing the road can cut life span by 40 years or more". There is zero valuable information in that headline.

Udik 6y ago
I don't agree. The headline contains valuable information. It says that, whatever you might think is the risk of dying once you got covid-19, on average those who died have their life shortened by about ten years. Which is not the same as dying in a traffic accident or in a war, where you can safely assume average lost lifespans of 30 or 40 years. My only issue with this title is that can- which is wrong and makes the title meaningless. The news is that on average it does cut lifespan of ten years.
YeGoblynQueenne 6y ago
I haven't read the article above, however there's a double standard here. I've heard, e.g. John Ioannidis (one of my personal Heroes of Science©) say that Covid-19 is not that bad because the majority of the people who die of it didn't have many quality-adjusted years of life left anyway [1]. Note that's quality-adjusted years of life for people who died with/from/by Covid-19, not of all those infected, because the majority of those infected lose 0 years of life so there's not much information in that metric, either. So, yes, it does make sense to ask "how many years a person who died of Covid-19 could still enjoy had they not died of Covid-19". Just looking at how many people died of those who were infected simply ignores the fact that many people who die of Covid-19 would otherwise have gone on happily being productive and valuable members of their respective communities - and not shuffling, moaning zombies held together by arcane necromancy, waiting for a gust of wind to disintegrate. After all, while Covid-19 is very dangerous for people over 80, it is also quite dangerous for people over 50 and over 60, and those are ages where many people haven't even retired from their careers. _____________ [1] Not a direct quote, rather one from memory. I can provide the source if needed, it's a video of an hour-long interview with Ioannidis on youtube.

nradov 6y ago

It appears that Harvard study failed to adjust for comorbid conditions such as obesity, and thus I suspect it overestimates years of life lost. We know that obesity cuts several years off of life expectancy independent of COVID-19. The typical patient who dies from COVID-19 has multiple chronic comorbid conditions.

anoncake 6y ago

The number of years of life lost due to Covid is much lower. Assuming - 60% of the population get it - the IFR is 0.6% - Everyone who dies loses on average 10 years it's 60% × 0.6% × 10yr = 0.036yr. That's less than two weeks. How much more are you willing to sacrifice for less than two weeks of lifespan?