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I think the more worrying thing is what happens to the West if, when it has built it's own fab capacity (which is much easier said than done, but China will thr

I think the more worrying thing is what happens to the West if, when it has built it's own fab capacity (which is much easier said than done, but China will throw enormous resource at it because it has to), China decides to destabilise Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but does anyone think the Western nations current or foreseeable leadership really have the strategic foresight to do so?

mytailorisrich 6y ago
Yes, that's what I meant by 'strategic consequences', including in case of a cross-straight conflict. At the moment it is in everyone's interest that Taiwan's foundries stay up and running. But in the future, in case of a hypothetical conflict it might even be in the mainland's interest to bomb them and create havoc for Western companies.
- Mindwipe 6y ago
  It might. I suspect we'll see a large amount of soft power disruptions first which would still make Taiwan's life fairly miserable.
mschuster91 6y ago
> Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but does anyone think the Western nations current or foreseeable leadership really have the strategic foresight to do so? TSMC actually plans to set up shop in Arizona: https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsArchivesAction.do?action=detail&newsid=THGOANPGTH&language=E https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsArchivesAction....
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  Only time will tell whether that shop is valuable. The only reason they started doing that was because the US pressured them into it — it wasn't for economic reasons.
  - adventured 6y ago
    It was for economic reasons on both sides. Political pressure from the US often has economic consequences. The two things are rarely not connected, especially when you're the size of Taiwan and dealing with the US (your sole protector on the planet, the only thing standing between you and getting Hong Kong'd). The US getting cut off from TSMC supply by a China move was unacceptable economically and politically. On the other side, the political relationship with the US has all sorts of economic ties for TSMC and Taiwan. So you can plainly see, the economics of it are connected all up and down the context. They cannot be separated.
    - bllguo 6y ago
      the point is that the plant would not happen without US pressure, so it is primarily motivated by geopolitical concerns. If you buy that, it's not much of a stretch to question how much effort TSMC will put into the Arizona plant, given the mess of conflicting incentives
- coreblocks 6y ago
  Honestly I think it’s just for show. There was a deal with Foxconn to set up shop in the US, but that never materialised either.

mytailorisrich 6y ago

Yes, that's what I meant by 'strategic consequences', including in case of a cross-straight conflict. At the moment it is in everyone's interest that Taiwan's foundries stay up and running. But in the future, in case of a hypothetical conflict it might even be in the mainland's interest to bomb them and create havoc for Western companies.

Mindwipe 6y ago
It might. I suspect we'll see a large amount of soft power disruptions first which would still make Taiwan's life fairly miserable.

mschuster91 6y ago

> Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but does anyone think the Western nations current or foreseeable leadership really have the strategic foresight to do so? TSMC actually plans to set up shop in Arizona: https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsArchivesAction.do?action=detail&newsid=THGOANPGTH&language=E https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsArchivesAction....

FooBarWidget 6y ago
Only time will tell whether that shop is valuable. The only reason they started doing that was because the US pressured them into it — it wasn't for economic reasons.
- adventured 6y ago
  It was for economic reasons on both sides. Political pressure from the US often has economic consequences. The two things are rarely not connected, especially when you're the size of Taiwan and dealing with the US (your sole protector on the planet, the only thing standing between you and getting Hong Kong'd). The US getting cut off from TSMC supply by a China move was unacceptable economically and politically. On the other side, the political relationship with the US has all sorts of economic ties for TSMC and Taiwan. So you can plainly see, the economics of it are connected all up and down the context. They cannot be separated.
  - bllguo 6y ago
    the point is that the plant would not happen without US pressure, so it is primarily motivated by geopolitical concerns. If you buy that, it's not much of a stretch to question how much effort TSMC will put into the Arizona plant, given the mess of conflicting incentives
coreblocks 6y ago
Honestly I think it’s just for show. There was a deal with Foxconn to set up shop in the US, but that never materialised either.