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> The real answer is to encourage and protect our ability to innovate while waiting for China to run out of things to copy. When did you last visit China? That

by sfifs 6y ago

> The real answer is to encourage and protect our ability to innovate while waiting for China to run out of things to copy. When did you last visit China? That train has long left the station :-) Advanced materials research, Aerospace and Chip Fabs are pretty much the only areas where technological areas where I currently see US having a lead

api 6y ago
Those are innovative fields. The US has a clear lead in aerospace and is among the leaders in materials. We've lost our lead in chips not to China but to Taiwan, a comparatively more liberal Asian country. The gap is not huge (yet) so it's possible that the US will regain its fab lead... if we want it. I think it's more likely in the short term that the US will make deals to get TSMC to build high-end fabs here for strategic reasons. I'm sure China will manage to copy a Boeing 737 pretty soon, which is 1960s technology. Meanwhile we are doing: https://boomsupersonic.com https://boomsupersonic.com https://www.spacex.com https://www.spacex.com ... and who-knows-what at places like Area 51. :) Last I checked China's most advanced fabs were doing 28nm, but that was in 2019. By now they've probably started to get EUV working as they feverishly race to copy TSMC. I would not be surprised if Chinese fabs are literal exact copies of prior generation TSMC and Intel fabs, since it takes time to steal inside information.
- rumanator 6y ago
  > I'm sure China will manage to copy a Boeing 737 pretty soon, which is 1960s technology. Meanwhile we are doing: Well, good enough is good enough. Boeing 737 is currently the most popular plane, and if China's regime manages to steal enough tech to be able build an equivalent product, even if it steals only 60s technology, then China's regime will be in a position to outcompete Boeing based on metrics that matter such as cost or soft power. It really doesn't matter who has the cutting-edge after a point of diminishing returns. When that point is reached, good old economics start to become the leading criteria.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - whatshisface 6y ago
    With passenger planes, the cutting edge is in economy.
- boringg 6y ago
  Boom - very cool aircraft hadn't seen their products yet but had seen the Virgin news. edit: spelling their.
- bakuninsbart 6y ago
  In 2019 China landed a spacecraft on the far side of the moon. [1] Two months ago, China successfully launched its first rover to Mars [2] I think it is hardly arguable that China has the most technologically advanced retail market in the world. - Ordering everything online from food to furniture, paying everywhere else by mobile phone, introducing state-sanctioned digital currency [3], and it is closing the gap or even pulling ahead in many other fields as well. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/01/03/china-lands-spacecraft-far-side-moon-historic-first/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/01/03/china-land... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53504797 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53504797 [3] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3096296/chinas-digital-currency-edges-closer-large-scale-test-four https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3096296/c...
  - sukilot 6y ago
    How is digital currency different from debit/credit/ETF/Wire etc?
    - mullingitover 6y ago
      Just look at how reliant the US is on the antiquated ACH transfer system. We're in the year 2020 and it's literally faster to mail someone cash in many cases.
boringg 6y ago
Did you see the spaceship launch from China (https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-debris-africa-uncontrolled-reentry-long-march-5b https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-deb...)? The debris pathway fell right across two major cities and landed near a village in Africa. I still think there is a lot of areas China needs to catch up. edit:spelling + added African village
- sukilot 6y ago
  That's aerospace. Anyway, the US blew up SS Columbia over Texas.
  - boringg 6y ago
    17 years ago...
sukilot 6y ago
Chip Fabs? Those are in Taiwan (until China started raiding them).

by sfifs 6y ago

api 6y ago

Those are innovative fields. The US has a clear lead in aerospace and is among the leaders in materials. We've lost our lead in chips not to China but to Taiwan, a comparatively more liberal Asian country. The gap is not huge (yet) so it's possible that the US will regain its fab lead... if we want it. I think it's more likely in the short term that the US will make deals to get TSMC to build high-end fabs here for strategic reasons. I'm sure China will manage to copy a Boeing 737 pretty soon, which is 1960s technology. Meanwhile we are doing: https://boomsupersonic.com https://boomsupersonic.com https://www.spacex.com https://www.spacex.com ... and who-knows-what at places like Area 51. :) Last I checked China's most advanced fabs were doing 28nm, but that was in 2019. By now they've probably started to get EUV working as they feverishly race to copy TSMC. I would not be surprised if Chinese fabs are literal exact copies of prior generation TSMC and Intel fabs, since it takes time to steal inside information.

rumanator 6y ago
> I'm sure China will manage to copy a Boeing 737 pretty soon, which is 1960s technology. Meanwhile we are doing: Well, good enough is good enough. Boeing 737 is currently the most popular plane, and if China's regime manages to steal enough tech to be able build an equivalent product, even if it steals only 60s technology, then China's regime will be in a position to outcompete Boeing based on metrics that matter such as cost or soft power. It really doesn't matter who has the cutting-edge after a point of diminishing returns. When that point is reached, good old economics start to become the leading criteria.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- whatshisface 6y ago
  With passenger planes, the cutting edge is in economy.
boringg 6y ago
Boom - very cool aircraft hadn't seen their products yet but had seen the Virgin news. edit: spelling their.
bakuninsbart 6y ago
In 2019 China landed a spacecraft on the far side of the moon. [1] Two months ago, China successfully launched its first rover to Mars [2] I think it is hardly arguable that China has the most technologically advanced retail market in the world. - Ordering everything online from food to furniture, paying everywhere else by mobile phone, introducing state-sanctioned digital currency [3], and it is closing the gap or even pulling ahead in many other fields as well. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/01/03/china-lands-spacecraft-far-side-moon-historic-first/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/01/03/china-land... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53504797 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53504797 [3] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3096296/chinas-digital-currency-edges-closer-large-scale-test-four https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3096296/c...
- sukilot 6y ago
  How is digital currency different from debit/credit/ETF/Wire etc?
  - mullingitover 6y ago
    Just look at how reliant the US is on the antiquated ACH transfer system. We're in the year 2020 and it's literally faster to mail someone cash in many cases.

boringg 6y ago

Did you see the spaceship launch from China (https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-debris-africa-uncontrolled-reentry-long-march-5b https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-deb...)? The debris pathway fell right across two major cities and landed near a village in Africa. I still think there is a lot of areas China needs to catch up. edit:spelling + added African village

sukilot 6y ago
That's aerospace. Anyway, the US blew up SS Columbia over Texas.
- boringg 6y ago
  17 years ago...

sukilot 6y ago

Chip Fabs? Those are in Taiwan (until China started raiding them).