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China hasn't competed on labor cost for a while. They now have the largest concentration of manufacturing and tooling skill in one place. Cheap labor seekers a
by api 6y ago
China hasn't competed on labor cost for a while. They now have the largest concentration of manufacturing and tooling skill in one place.
Cheap labor seekers are going to cheaper parts of India (but that won't stay cheap for long), Africa, Indonesia, etc. Africa is establishing some kind of union to reduce concerns about stability, and if that works we will see the 80s-90s in China repeated there.
Someday there won't be any large pools of cheap labor left. Unless automation is much cheaper by then, we will see massive inflation in manufactured goods.
Also: if Africa industrializes and we don't have cheap fossil fuel alternatives, we should just start moving Miami and building the New York Sea Wall. Another half billion to billion people will be joining the new global middle class, and after centuries of colonialism Africa is not going to listen to Westerners asking them nicely to stay poor so we can meet a CO2 target.
- toiletfuneral 6y agoSo once you guys fully eliminate human labor who do you think will buy all the dumb shit capitalism produces?
- hlfy_hn 6y agoChina's strength was never cheap labour. 1. Educated people (most former communist countries have fewer analphabets than the US) 2. Tons of people 3. Infrastructure and clustering. 4. The political will to move forward. You won't see this in Africa. India is possible but unlikely.
- lostlogin 6y ago> analphabet Illiterate. I initially thought it an amusing typo, and I haven’t missed the irony in not knowing the word. Thanks, I learned something.
- hlfy_hn 6y agoNut sure why this is also downvoted. Feel free to disagree. I have a PhD in a STEM field and live in China. I think my opinion has some value.
- racecar789 6y agoIt's a fine comment (and I learned a new word also). Take the down-votes in stride. Topics about China often stir-up strong political emotions.
- waterheater 6y agoCurrently doing a PhD in a STEM field in the USA. I think your points are generally right but vastly oversimplifies the situation. >1. Educated people (most former communist countries have fewer analphabets than the US) Literacy != education. In the USA, we used to talk about the 3 R's: reading, 'riting, and 'rithmetic. That's the base level. I would equate education with higher-level thought processes developed in college. Re communist countries: yes, this is where communist control can be effective, but it also stifles creative thought (are you really sure the state's education regime is correct?) >2. Tons of people Certainly helpful, when used correctly. Definitely drives the cost of labor lower, though (simple supply-demand relationship). >3. Infrastructure and clustering. To an extent, sure, but the infrastructure development is more a consequence of the large amounts of people. Also, you get more bang for the buck when you build infrastructure there because so many people now live in population centers. >4. The political will to move forward. This is the primary point I would say is wrong. We have plenty of political will in the USA. However, we also have much clearer legal separation between private and public companies. The CCP holds a very different view on how private companies should exist. We in the USA theoretically can block companies from operating in certain countries, but we choose to not do so in most cases. Liberty is much more protected in the USA, which may hurt short term but works best long term. As to your projections: >won't see this in Africa I presently agree, but no one expected China to do as well as it has 50 years ago. >India is possible but unlikely As China and India continue their border clashes, they will grow more distant. I expect the West to align with India than China, given than Indian values more closely align with the West.
- 6y ago
- heavyset_go 6y ago> Also: if Africa industrializes and we don't have cheap fossil fuel alternatives, we should just start moving Miami and building the New York Sea Wall Probably won't have to worry much. China's CO2 emissions per capita are still far below that of the US.
- waterheater 6y agoAnd? The Earth doesn't care about per-capita metrics. 100 is still greater than 10, no matter how you cut it.
- heavyset_go 6y agoThere's a better chance of changing economic incentives at home in a country that has 11x multiplier on CO2 emissions per capita compared to say, China.
- waterheater 6y agoNah, you'll have a harder time forcing change in the USA because liberty is more protected. In the USA, you actually have to convince people, which is much harder than dictation. Given that the CCP claims to have full control of China, all we need to do is lobby the CCP to lower emissions. Of course, what does that say about the CCP if they can't/won't lower their emissions...nothing good, that's for sure.
- quonn 6y agoAfrica has many problems it will not be like China any time soon. And automation? Well, a lack of cheap labor will make more expensive automation as well as research worthwhile. So more will be automated.