7 ms·

Wait ... Chinese labor is now also too expensive? Give me a fucking break already. What do these people want, slaves? I leave this here: https://www.theonion.

• api 6y ago
  China hasn't competed on labor cost for a while. They now have the largest concentration of manufacturing and tooling skill in one place. Cheap labor seekers are going to cheaper parts of India (but that won't stay cheap for long), Africa, Indonesia, etc. Africa is establishing some kind of union to reduce concerns about stability, and if that works we will see the 80s-90s in China repeated there. Someday there won't be any large pools of cheap labor left. Unless automation is much cheaper by then, we will see massive inflation in manufactured goods. Also: if Africa industrializes and we don't have cheap fossil fuel alternatives, we should just start moving Miami and building the New York Sea Wall. Another half billion to billion people will be joining the new global middle class, and after centuries of colonialism Africa is not going to listen to Westerners asking them nicely to stay poor so we can meet a CO2 target.
  • toiletfuneral 6y ago
    So once you guys fully eliminate human labor who do you think will buy all the dumb shit capitalism produces?
  • hlfy_hn 6y ago
    China's strength was never cheap labour. 1. Educated people (most former communist countries have fewer analphabets than the US) 2. Tons of people 3. Infrastructure and clustering. 4. The political will to move forward. You won't see this in Africa. India is possible but unlikely.
    • lostlogin 6y ago
      > analphabet Illiterate. I initially thought it an amusing typo, and I haven’t missed the irony in not knowing the word. Thanks, I learned something.
      • hlfy_hn 6y ago
        Sorry, I am not a native speaker.
        • deleted 6y ago
          [deleted]
        • lostlogin 6y ago
          Don't be sorry. You taught a native speaker a new word.
    • hlfy_hn 6y ago
      Nut sure why this is also downvoted. Feel free to disagree. I have a PhD in a STEM field and live in China. I think my opinion has some value.
      • racecar789 6y ago
        It's a fine comment (and I learned a new word also). Take the down-votes in stride. Topics about China often stir-up strong political emotions.
      • waterheater 6y ago
        Currently doing a PhD in a STEM field in the USA. I think your points are generally right but vastly oversimplifies the situation. >1. Educated people (most former communist countries have fewer analphabets than the US) Literacy != education. In the USA, we used to talk about the 3 R's: reading, 'riting, and 'rithmetic. That's the base level. I would equate education with higher-level thought processes developed in college. Re communist countries: yes, this is where communist control can be effective, but it also stifles creative thought (are you really sure the state's education regime is correct?) >2. Tons of people Certainly helpful, when used correctly. Definitely drives the cost of labor lower, though (simple supply-demand relationship). >3. Infrastructure and clustering. To an extent, sure, but the infrastructure development is more a consequence of the large amounts of people. Also, you get more bang for the buck when you build infrastructure there because so many people now live in population centers. >4. The political will to move forward. This is the primary point I would say is wrong. We have plenty of political will in the USA. However, we also have much clearer legal separation between private and public companies. The CCP holds a very different view on how private companies should exist. We in the USA theoretically can block companies from operating in certain countries, but we choose to not do so in most cases. Liberty is much more protected in the USA, which may hurt short term but works best long term. As to your projections: >won't see this in Africa I presently agree, but no one expected China to do as well as it has 50 years ago. >India is possible but unlikely As China and India continue their border clashes, they will grow more distant. I expect the West to align with India than China, given than Indian values more closely align with the West.
  • heavyset_go 6y ago
    > Also: if Africa industrializes and we don't have cheap fossil fuel alternatives, we should just start moving Miami and building the New York Sea Wall Probably won't have to worry much. China's CO2 emissions per capita are still far below that of the US.
    • waterheater 6y ago
      And? The Earth doesn't care about per-capita metrics. 100 is still greater than 10, no matter how you cut it.
      • heavyset_go 6y ago
        There's a better chance of changing economic incentives at home in a country that has 11x multiplier on CO2 emissions per capita compared to say, China.
        • waterheater 6y ago
          Nah, you'll have a harder time forcing change in the USA because liberty is more protected. In the USA, you actually have to convince people, which is much harder than dictation. Given that the CCP claims to have full control of China, all we need to do is lobby the CCP to lower emissions. Of course, what does that say about the CCP if they can't/won't lower their emissions...nothing good, that's for sure.
  • quonn 6y ago
    Africa has many problems it will not be like China any time soon. And automation? Well, a lack of cheap labor will make more expensive automation as well as research worthwhile. So more will be automated.
• monocasa 6y ago
  China's spent the last decade or so repositioning itself in the global manufacturing chain to be closer to the US's position. ie. using it's manufacturing and logistics experience and capital to create Chinese brands that they can control and be known for. And as a corollary, less of an emphasis on bottom of the barrel manufacturing as a commodity. Essientially they want to be known for brands with higher quality like western brands are, _and_ keep high skill manufacturing like Foxconn, but push out low skill manufacturing to the south China Sea and eventually to along their belt and road initiative (and maybe Africa). They really want no part of low margin manufacturing anymore, having developed enough for it not to be worth it for them. You can see the main thrust of this initiative under the "Made in China 2025" initiative.
  • runawaybottle 6y ago
    I can understand the initiative, but they also have 1 billion people. There is no way they uplifted that many people out of the lower economy yet. Companies determining that the cost of Chinese labor as not cheap enough due to even a slight increase in price still sounds like immense greed.
    • monocasa 6y ago
      You could make the same argument for the US's 350M people. Why would we give up sweat shops when there's homeless and unemployed? Because we view their existence in our economy as an overall downward pressure on average standard of living.
    • f6v 6y ago
      I’m no expert, but it’s probably not possible to move manufacturing to places where labor is still cheap in China. After all, the country is huge, and concentration/proximity to shipping routes matters.
    • mgraczyk 6y ago
      This is also about planning ahead. There likely won't be a better time for the migration in the next 20 years.
    • 6y ago
• f6v 6y ago
  Well, that cheap smartphone ain’t gonna build itself. You need a worker so fed up with his life he contemplates jumping off a building.
• riffraff 6y ago
  Well, it says "rising". When something costs 5% of what it would cost elsewhere you can decide it's worth producing it in China even if there are a ton of downsides. It doesn't have to get to 100% before you decide the cons outweigh the pros, it just has to be less cheap.
• simonh 6y ago
  No company exists in isolation. Other countries is SE Asia have lower cost labour further down the skills ladder, they’re available and willing to work, and your competitors may well already be operating there. Stay in China in those circumstances and you’ll be uncompetitive. This is not a bad thing. China has successfully climbed up the value chain, as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong did before them. Now it’s the turn of other countries like Vietnam. It’s how hundreds of millions of people have risen out of poverty.
  • runawaybottle 6y ago
    I guess my point is, we don’t saturate the economies, we just move on. There’s enough work on all levels to saturate the US and Chinese economies before moving on to Vietnam. Fair is a complicated thing to figure out. We are traversing the tree in level order. That’s why vast sectors of each economy (nodes) get left behind. I don’t think Vietnam should have to wait until we traverse the entirety of US and Chinese economy, there has to be a hybrid (holistic) approach to this. These are the tough questions I guess. The global economy is stuck in a awful Leetcode question, and there’s no way out.
• mensetmanusman 6y ago
  One child policy has caused the workforce to shrink a couple years ago.