3 ms·

I would say that a major question now is not "are humans responsible", or even (merely) "what should humans do about it." The real unsettled question now is: ho

I would say that a major question now is not "are humans responsible", or even (merely) "what should humans do about it." The real unsettled question now is: how bad is it going to be, and when we don't know for sure, how much should we weight the various bad outcomes? Without some understanding of this, it's really hard to know how to weigh remediation arguments. If we're facing even a small possibility of worse-than-expected outcomes (as several models are currently predicting [1]) or methane feedback loops [2], then arguments like Shellenberger's aren't really that persuasive. Unfortunately we're barely getting to the point where a majority of Americans even accept that humans are causing this, despite the overwhelming evidence. So I'm not expecting a particularly informed debate until it's way too late. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-03/climate-models-are-running-red-hot-and-scientists-don-t-know-why https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-03/climate-m... [2] https://www.sciencealert.com/there-s-a-strange-methane-leak-from-antarctica-s-sea-floor-and-it-s-not-good-news https://www.sciencealert.com/there-s-a-strange-methane-leak-...

imtringued 6y ago
>The real unsettled question now is: how bad is it going to be, and when we don't know for sure, how much should we weight the various bad outcomes? If you wave a magic wand and reduce CO2 emissions by 90% today we will still reach the same bad outcomes eventually. Politicians are going to tell us we still have 100 years left and will just ignore the topic until it becomes a priority again. Think of it like having a back injury that gets more painful over time. You're going to react based on how intense the pain is, not based on how much time has passed.
- matthewdgreen 6y ago
  I think of it like having a growing tumor. Maybe it doesn't hurt now, but all the doctors are telling you that you need to take it out or it will metastasize. You won't live forever if you take it out, but you'll potentially live a whole lot longer.

imtringued 6y ago

>The real unsettled question now is: how bad is it going to be, and when we don't know for sure, how much should we weight the various bad outcomes? If you wave a magic wand and reduce CO2 emissions by 90% today we will still reach the same bad outcomes eventually. Politicians are going to tell us we still have 100 years left and will just ignore the topic until it becomes a priority again. Think of it like having a back injury that gets more painful over time. You're going to react based on how intense the pain is, not based on how much time has passed.

matthewdgreen 6y ago
I think of it like having a growing tumor. Maybe it doesn't hurt now, but all the doctors are telling you that you need to take it out or it will metastasize. You won't live forever if you take it out, but you'll potentially live a whole lot longer.