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It is interesting that there was recently a petition asking for people to support the national security law, and that it managed to gather 3 million signatures.

It is interesting that there was recently a petition asking for people to support the national security law, and that it managed to gather 3 million signatures. For comparison, high estimations on the number of people who went on the streets to protest, was about 2 million. Both numbers are likely to be overestimations, but it seems to show that the Hong Kong people are divided about whether China is good for them, and whether they should support the protests or not. It is unfortunate that the mainstream media only reports Hong Kong events on the surface level, and does not analyze the issue more deeply. To those that wish to learn more deeply about the Hong Kong events, I recommend browsing Quora. There are quite some people there who say they live in Hong Kong.

jakear 6y ago
...or the signatures are fake? Petition fraud. Happens in US too, see net neutrality.
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  Well I did say that 3M is likely to be an overestimation. How many do you believe are fake? Let's say 40% are fake. That puts the number of legit signatures at 1.6M: still in the same ballpark as the number of protesters, which shows that society is divided. If you disagree with this analysis, I would love to hear why.
  - vehementi 6y ago
    40% is the conservative estimate number the the US government faked for the net neutrality thing and that's with transparency in the comments. Let's go with 99% for China?
    - FooBarWidget 6y ago
      There was a local district election in November, in which the pro-Democracy party won. Do you believe that those election results are real or not?
  - nitrogen 6y ago
    A petition is a much lower effort action than a protest. People motivated enough to protest in person probably represent a stronger opinion base than people merely motivated enough to sign a petition.
    - FooBarWidget 6y ago
      That's generally true. In this case, it's a petition about a national security law, so does that still hold? I would say that anybody signing support for a national security law has to be mad (under normal circumstances), no matter how easy it is to put down a signature.
      - robjan 6y ago
        I was offered a bag ~10 surgical masks or a hand sanitizer a few months ago in return for signing that petition by people waiting at the entrance to my apartment building. At this time there was a huge scramble for masks which were in short supply. I'm not disputing the law or the level of support but I feel there were some flaws in the signature collection process.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  Or coerced. Note that the coercion doesn't have to be blatant or explicit. China said some fairly threatening things about Hong Kong, and some number of residents may have decided that, for their own safety, they needed to signal that they were in support. What they actually feel or think may be different.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - y2kenny 6y ago
    Yes, big businesses as well: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/03/hsbc-backs-chinas-national-security-law-hong-kong/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/03/hsbc-backs-c... >> Last Friday Leung Chun-ying, Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing former leader, demanded that HSBC state its position after enjoying privileges in the territory that “should not be taken for granted”. He also warned that it could “be replaced by banks from China or other countries overnight”. In a Facebook post he wrote: “We need to let … British companies such as HSBC know which side of the bread is buttered.”
FooBarWidget 6y ago
Does anyone know why my post gets downvoted? Is it not neutral and balanced enough?
- vvpan 6y ago
  I think people are assuming that it's relying on questionable sources.
- ciarannolan 6y ago
  Probably for the same reason that other CCP propaganda attracts downvotes.
  - non-entity 6y ago
    [removed]
    - ciarannolan 6y ago
      Thanks, but I don't think that applies here. I'm not accusing that poster of "astroturfing, shilling, brigading, [or being a] foreign agent". I'm saying that they're parroting CCP propaganda in the form of an extremely questionable survey and that generally attracts downvotes here (including mine).
      - non-entity 6y ago
        Ok sorry, I read into that incorrectly then. I've read too many threads accusing people of being state actors in similar fashions recently
        lostlogin 6y ago
        It’s an interesting comment history and the pro CCP angle is pushed hard. However that doesn’t mean views are necessarily always wrong - though mine are in strong opposition. @Dang has a horrible task dealing with this stuff.
monksy 6y ago
3million signatures.. they would never fake that now would they? https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/420764-chicago-alderman-candidate-says-election-fraud-allegations-show-perversion-of https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/420764-chicago-alderman-ca...
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  How many do you believe are fake?
  - monksy 6y ago
    According to the news sources behind the great firewall they're all legitimate.
    - FooBarWidget 6y ago
      But Hong Kong has never had a great firewall?
  - blibble 6y ago
    approximately three million?
- ksec 6y ago
  Half of them were faked, half of them were forced to sign when their Job or bonus were dependent on it. And that is about as civilised and as polite as I could put it.
saagarjha 6y ago
> I recommend browsing Quora. There are quite some people there who say they live in Hong Kong. I live in Hong Kong–those people on Quora are wrong. Actually, I don't, but there's really no way to verify that; take online comments by people who supposedly live in a region with a grain of salt.
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  What do you believe they are wrong about?
  - kick 6y ago
    That's not the point. He's saying that there's no possible way to decisively figure out who does and doesn't live in Hong Kong on Quora; there are a lot of nations interested in influencing what's going on there right now (including US, I might add), and Chinese disinformation campaigns (especially ones where they pretend to be from elsewhere) aren't a new phenomenon. Petitions are bullshit, Quora is bullshit. Look for bodies, anything else is easy to fake.
    - FooBarWidget 6y ago
      I wonder what you consider valid opinions then. Suppose a foreigner posts a video on Youtube, showing that he's on the street in China, speaking about Hong Kong. Would you say that that is a valid opinion? Also, if we're so skeptical about all sorts of online comments, do you believe I should consider all HN comments about anything political, to be invalid too because they might be disinformation campaigns?
      - hombre_fatal 6y ago
        Notice that walking on the streets of China or Hong Kong is still a world different from posting an internet comment or incrementing a mysql column. Also, yes, we generally are skeptical of political claims online. See this thread and any political discussion on HN. It's why political submissions are usually clusterfucks like this one where every top-level comment is greyed-out and making a strong claim. Or made by someone who registered an account just to post it. Either way, you are here bringing Quora posts and a petition in into a superhot discussion that demands more. Linking to published opinion pieces from people at ground zero would definitely be more compelling than pointing us to an internet forum where you write your own byline credentials.
caycep 6y ago
If you go on journalist twitter, the “mainstream media” is full of very enterprising journalists who have done deep dives into the security law (as much as released by the CCP...) and is uniformly critical. Also rather than “online polls”, the more damning feature are the local elections, or remnants thereof, where the Beijing faction is routinely getting crushed with pro-democracy candidates getting 70-80% Of the vote
- yorwba 6y ago
  In the last local council elections, pro-Beijing candidates got 42% of all votes, while pro-democracy candidates got 57%. That the pro-democracy candidates won almost 90% of the seats is an artifact of the election system, which doesn't guarantee proportional representation.
symmitchry 6y ago
You believe that 3 million 'petition signatures' is even remotely equivalent to 2 million actual protesters marching the street?
- mjayhn 6y ago
  I'm really curious how exponential the amount of signatures you'd get for a protest that brought 2 million people together would be. I'd bet it'd be 30m+ easy but I'm doing completely baseless twitter retweet math. edit: I worded this strangely and tried to recover it, hopefully it makes sense.
bigpumpkin 6y ago
Reuters conducted an opinion poll on the law in June. 49% strongly opposed it. 7% somewhat opposed it. 27% strongly supported it. 7% somewhat supported it. [1] [1]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-poll-exclusive-idUSKBN23W3KO https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-poll-ex...

jakear 6y ago

...or the signatures are fake? Petition fraud. Happens in US too, see net neutrality.

FooBarWidget 6y ago
Well I did say that 3M is likely to be an overestimation. How many do you believe are fake? Let's say 40% are fake. That puts the number of legit signatures at 1.6M: still in the same ballpark as the number of protesters, which shows that society is divided. If you disagree with this analysis, I would love to hear why.
- vehementi 6y ago
  40% is the conservative estimate number the the US government faked for the net neutrality thing and that's with transparency in the comments. Let's go with 99% for China?
  - FooBarWidget 6y ago
    There was a local district election in November, in which the pro-Democracy party won. Do you believe that those election results are real or not?
- nitrogen 6y ago
  A petition is a much lower effort action than a protest. People motivated enough to protest in person probably represent a stronger opinion base than people merely motivated enough to sign a petition.
  - FooBarWidget 6y ago
    That's generally true. In this case, it's a petition about a national security law, so does that still hold? I would say that anybody signing support for a national security law has to be mad (under normal circumstances), no matter how easy it is to put down a signature.
    - robjan 6y ago
      I was offered a bag ~10 surgical masks or a hand sanitizer a few months ago in return for signing that petition by people waiting at the entrance to my apartment building. At this time there was a huge scramble for masks which were in short supply. I'm not disputing the law or the level of support but I feel there were some flaws in the signature collection process.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
Or coerced. Note that the coercion doesn't have to be blatant or explicit. China said some fairly threatening things about Hong Kong, and some number of residents may have decided that, for their own safety, they needed to signal that they were in support. What they actually feel or think may be different.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- y2kenny 6y ago
  Yes, big businesses as well: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/03/hsbc-backs-chinas-national-security-law-hong-kong/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/03/hsbc-backs-c... >> Last Friday Leung Chun-ying, Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing former leader, demanded that HSBC state its position after enjoying privileges in the territory that “should not be taken for granted”. He also warned that it could “be replaced by banks from China or other countries overnight”. In a Facebook post he wrote: “We need to let … British companies such as HSBC know which side of the bread is buttered.”

FooBarWidget 6y ago

Does anyone know why my post gets downvoted? Is it not neutral and balanced enough?

vvpan 6y ago
I think people are assuming that it's relying on questionable sources.
ciarannolan 6y ago
Probably for the same reason that other CCP propaganda attracts downvotes.
- non-entity 6y ago
  [removed]
  - ciarannolan 6y ago
    Thanks, but I don't think that applies here. I'm not accusing that poster of "astroturfing, shilling, brigading, [or being a] foreign agent". I'm saying that they're parroting CCP propaganda in the form of an extremely questionable survey and that generally attracts downvotes here (including mine).
    - non-entity 6y ago
      Ok sorry, I read into that incorrectly then. I've read too many threads accusing people of being state actors in similar fashions recently
      - lostlogin 6y ago
        It’s an interesting comment history and the pro CCP angle is pushed hard. However that doesn’t mean views are necessarily always wrong - though mine are in strong opposition. @Dang has a horrible task dealing with this stuff.

monksy 6y ago

3million signatures.. they would never fake that now would they? https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/420764-chicago-alderman-candidate-says-election-fraud-allegations-show-perversion-of https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/420764-chicago-alderman-ca...

FooBarWidget 6y ago
How many do you believe are fake?
- monksy 6y ago
  According to the news sources behind the great firewall they're all legitimate.
  - FooBarWidget 6y ago
    But Hong Kong has never had a great firewall?
- blibble 6y ago
  approximately three million?
ksec 6y ago
Half of them were faked, half of them were forced to sign when their Job or bonus were dependent on it. And that is about as civilised and as polite as I could put it.

saagarjha 6y ago

> I recommend browsing Quora. There are quite some people there who say they live in Hong Kong. I live in Hong Kong–those people on Quora are wrong. Actually, I don't, but there's really no way to verify that; take online comments by people who supposedly live in a region with a grain of salt.

FooBarWidget 6y ago
What do you believe they are wrong about?
- kick 6y ago
  That's not the point. He's saying that there's no possible way to decisively figure out who does and doesn't live in Hong Kong on Quora; there are a lot of nations interested in influencing what's going on there right now (including US, I might add), and Chinese disinformation campaigns (especially ones where they pretend to be from elsewhere) aren't a new phenomenon. Petitions are bullshit, Quora is bullshit. Look for bodies, anything else is easy to fake.
  - FooBarWidget 6y ago
    I wonder what you consider valid opinions then. Suppose a foreigner posts a video on Youtube, showing that he's on the street in China, speaking about Hong Kong. Would you say that that is a valid opinion? Also, if we're so skeptical about all sorts of online comments, do you believe I should consider all HN comments about anything political, to be invalid too because they might be disinformation campaigns?
    - hombre_fatal 6y ago
      Notice that walking on the streets of China or Hong Kong is still a world different from posting an internet comment or incrementing a mysql column. Also, yes, we generally are skeptical of political claims online. See this thread and any political discussion on HN. It's why political submissions are usually clusterfucks like this one where every top-level comment is greyed-out and making a strong claim. Or made by someone who registered an account just to post it. Either way, you are here bringing Quora posts and a petition in into a superhot discussion that demands more. Linking to published opinion pieces from people at ground zero would definitely be more compelling than pointing us to an internet forum where you write your own byline credentials.

caycep 6y ago

If you go on journalist twitter, the “mainstream media” is full of very enterprising journalists who have done deep dives into the security law (as much as released by the CCP...) and is uniformly critical. Also rather than “online polls”, the more damning feature are the local elections, or remnants thereof, where the Beijing faction is routinely getting crushed with pro-democracy candidates getting 70-80% Of the vote

yorwba 6y ago
In the last local council elections, pro-Beijing candidates got 42% of all votes, while pro-democracy candidates got 57%. That the pro-democracy candidates won almost 90% of the seats is an artifact of the election system, which doesn't guarantee proportional representation.

symmitchry 6y ago

You believe that 3 million 'petition signatures' is even remotely equivalent to 2 million actual protesters marching the street?

mjayhn 6y ago
I'm really curious how exponential the amount of signatures you'd get for a protest that brought 2 million people together would be. I'd bet it'd be 30m+ easy but I'm doing completely baseless twitter retweet math. edit: I worded this strangely and tried to recover it, hopefully it makes sense.

bigpumpkin 6y ago

Reuters conducted an opinion poll on the law in June. 49% strongly opposed it. 7% somewhat opposed it. 27% strongly supported it. 7% somewhat supported it. [1] [1]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-poll-exclusive-idUSKBN23W3KO https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-poll-ex...