4 ms·

Isn’t an uptick in retail trading a sign it’s already too late for whatever bubble we’re in now? Or is that adage bullshit like everything else related to the

Isn’t an uptick in retail trading a sign it’s already too late for whatever bubble we’re in now? Or is that adage bullshit like everything else related to the economy too?

rootsudo 6y ago
I wonder how the 1920's were like.
- 082349872349872 6y ago
  Zweig on 1920's hyperinflationary germany (he covers the austrian experience in a different chapter): https://ia601609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.176552/2015.176552.The-World-Of-Yesterday_text.pdf https://ia601609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.1... p.238 "Messenger boys established foreign exchange businesses and speculated in currencies of all lands. Towering over all of them was the gigantic figure of the super-profiteer Stinnes. Expanding his credit and exploiting the mark, he bought whatever was for sale, coal mines and ships, factories and stocks, castles and country estates, actually for nothing because every payment, every promise became equal to naught. Soon a quarter of Germany was in his hands and, perversely, the masses, who in Germany always become intoxicated at a success that they can see with their eyes, cheered him as a genius. The unemployed stood around by the thousands and shook their fists at the profiteers and foreigners in their luxurious cars who bought whole rows of streets like a box of matches ; everyone who could read and write traded, speculated and profited and had a secret sense that they were deceiving themselves and were being deceived by a hidden force which brought about this chaos deliberately in order to liberate the State from its debts and obligations." FWIW the guy who brings and empties my skips was giving me tips on Covid medication stocks last week...
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    Inflation in the Weimar Republic was specifically to pay down dept with devalued currency. What we're seeing now is an attempt to fill in a hole left by parts of the economy being shut down. Besides the motivation, a big difference is we don't know if this will be net inflationary or deflationary with the slower velocity of money, bad debt, etc.
    - imtringued 6y ago
      Yeah, the story makes sense if you are talking about e. g. Argentina but not if you're talking about the US.
    - bawana 6y ago
      Money may be printed but it causes inflation only if two conditions are satisfied: 1) the money stays in country 2) the money is used to buy goods or services. Our monetary system is based on a plan instituted 1oo years ago, before credit cards, electronic banking and and international market for finance. The Fed either changes the rate at which banks borrow money or buys financial instruments outright. This was fine back in the day when the main job of banks was making loans to people to buy homes (See It's a Wonderful Life). However today, money will will seek the highest ROI and stays in the financial system. We are seeing inflation of financial products (stock market bubble) despite record unemployment. Other weird things are booming house sales with record low interest rates. Until money is put in the hands of people who will spend it, we will never have inflation. NO MATTER HOW MUCH MONEY IS PRINTED.Today when I hear the word 'productivity' and 'growth' I realize it is not talking about the real world where there are mouths to feed and people who need a roof. Rather these words are talking about another entity, capital.

Isn’t an uptick in retail trading a sign it’s already too late for whatever bubble we’re in now? Or is that adage bullshit like everything else related to the economy too?

rootsudo 6y ago

I wonder how the 1920's were like.

082349872349872 6y ago
Zweig on 1920's hyperinflationary germany (he covers the austrian experience in a different chapter): https://ia601609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.176552/2015.176552.The-World-Of-Yesterday_text.pdf https://ia601609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.1... p.238 "Messenger boys established foreign exchange businesses and speculated in currencies of all lands. Towering over all of them was the gigantic figure of the super-profiteer Stinnes. Expanding his credit and exploiting the mark, he bought whatever was for sale, coal mines and ships, factories and stocks, castles and country estates, actually for nothing because every payment, every promise became equal to naught. Soon a quarter of Germany was in his hands and, perversely, the masses, who in Germany always become intoxicated at a success that they can see with their eyes, cheered him as a genius. The unemployed stood around by the thousands and shook their fists at the profiteers and foreigners in their luxurious cars who bought whole rows of streets like a box of matches ; everyone who could read and write traded, speculated and profited and had a secret sense that they were deceiving themselves and were being deceived by a hidden force which brought about this chaos deliberately in order to liberate the State from its debts and obligations." FWIW the guy who brings and empties my skips was giving me tips on Covid medication stocks last week...
- dehrmann 6y ago
  Inflation in the Weimar Republic was specifically to pay down dept with devalued currency. What we're seeing now is an attempt to fill in a hole left by parts of the economy being shut down. Besides the motivation, a big difference is we don't know if this will be net inflationary or deflationary with the slower velocity of money, bad debt, etc.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    Yeah, the story makes sense if you are talking about e. g. Argentina but not if you're talking about the US.
  - bawana 6y ago
    Money may be printed but it causes inflation only if two conditions are satisfied: 1) the money stays in country 2) the money is used to buy goods or services. Our monetary system is based on a plan instituted 1oo years ago, before credit cards, electronic banking and and international market for finance. The Fed either changes the rate at which banks borrow money or buys financial instruments outright. This was fine back in the day when the main job of banks was making loans to people to buy homes (See It's a Wonderful Life). However today, money will will seek the highest ROI and stays in the financial system. We are seeing inflation of financial products (stock market bubble) despite record unemployment. Other weird things are booming house sales with record low interest rates. Until money is put in the hands of people who will spend it, we will never have inflation. NO MATTER HOW MUCH MONEY IS PRINTED.Today when I hear the word 'productivity' and 'growth' I realize it is not talking about the real world where there are mouths to feed and people who need a roof. Rather these words are talking about another entity, capital.