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I realize that all the process sizes aren't all necessarily equivalent ("TSMC is on 5nm already!"), but this could really be an existential problem for Intel.
by sparker72678 6y ago
I realize that all the process sizes aren't all necessarily equivalent ("TSMC is on 5nm already!"), but this could really be an existential problem for Intel.
Windows already has an ARM version. Apple is about to release its own silicon. Amazon is running its own silicon on servers.
It seems like peak Intel is already behind us, but just how quickly might they fall?
- pseudosavant 6y agoIt seems insane to me that Intel won't have 7nm fabs working at scale until 2023 but AMD is selling $99 CPUs printed at 7nm already. How did Intel go from 24 months ahead of everyone to 4 years behind?? The most advanced process node was arguably Intel's only true differentiator in the past. Now they make CPUs with comparable IPC to ARM or AMD but they have to use old process tech. And they are only getting further behind. How smart was it for AMD to spin out their fabs into GlobalFoundaries? After all 7nm Ryzen is done by TSMC.
- trianglem 6y agoBecause it’s not the same thing sigh. It’s an apples to oranges comparison. I wish they stuck to actual transistor sizes.
- colonwqbang 6y agoIs there a good resource where you can look up the transistor size, transistors / mm2 or something similar, for each popular process?
- wmf 6y agohttps://en.wikichip.org/wiki/7_nm_lithography_process https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/7_nm_lithography_process
- nimish 6y agoIntel 7 is fab 5; tsmc and samsung already have that ready to go. Both are brand names at this point.
- 23f4324g34g 6y agoNo matter how you compare the sizes, in 2023 Intel will be far behind anyway. TSMC will start 3nm next year and beat Intel to death.
- xbmcuser 6y agoYou are correct though the exact numbers don't matter. Intel is already behind and is having problems where as other manufacturers are moving to smaller nodes. Exact node size does not matter just the fact that Intel is being left behind
- caseyf7 6y agoDoes the transistor size matter when AMD chips are more energy efficient? That’s what I really care about.
- Tuna-Fish 6y agoYes, absolutely. That is one of the big reasons why AMD is beating Intel on that front.
- cma 6y agoThey are behind, but that is mischaracterizing it a good deal. Intel's 10nm is more equivalent to TSMC's 7nm.
- thoraway1010 6y agoAgreed - but that has also not been smooth. I'd be curious to know the 10nm volumes at TSMC vs intel. The world has really changed.
- askvictor 6y agoIt's just like, back in the 2000's, Intel insisting GHz was the only measure that mattered (compared to AMD's lower clocked but more efficient designs), but in the other way around.
- ch_123 6y agoMaybe so, but Intel's 10nm keeps slipping back[1] whereas TSMC have been shipping 7nm in volume since 2018. [1] https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-says-first-10nm-desktop-cpus-land-in-second-half-of-2021 https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-says-first-10nm-desk...
- icedchai 6y agoI wouldn't count Intel out yet. They've been leapfrogged by AMD before, and then caught up. The cycle repeats. Also, do you remember the 90's? There was a promising 64-bit CPU called the DEC Alpha. Windows once even had an Alpha version. We know how that turned out.
- sparker72678 6y agoARM 64 has a bit of a wider adoption that DEC Alpha ;) I really wish Intel was doing better, and I hope they come back, somehow. The chip world needs good competition.
- AmVess 6y agoThe problem with Intel is that they have been missing important deadlines by massive amounts of time. Their 10nm node was slated to arrive almost 5 years ago. It is still far from mature. TSMC is readying serial production of 5nm (equivalent to Intel 7nm) this year. I wouldn't plan on seeing a 7nm product from Intel in any volume until 2024, and I wouldn't place money on that as a bet.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- waheoo 6y agoSo? They have a runway, yes, but it's a freakin long one. They have a massive warchest and a crapload of market share that isn't going to go away overnight. Id put money on them already having a new operation crush well underway by this point.
- ArkVark 6y agoIntel has been hollowed out by contractors and H1B workers. I don't think the raw talent is there anymore. The company is just running on inertia. AdoreTV has a video on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agxSclh27uo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agxSclh27uo
- 6y ago
- ekianjo 6y ago> It seems like peak Intel is already behind us, but just how quickly might they fall? Don't forget that AMD has a vested interest in keeping x86 alive as well. it's not just Intel. So it's not like x86 is stuck in the mud because of Intel's situation.
- Animats 6y agoThis could really be an existential problem for Intel. Not quite, but it could be as big an event as the 737 Max debacle was for Boeing. As I understand it, the 7nm processes in production do not use EUV, but Intel's does. Is that correct? I'm amazed that anyone can get that "zap tin droplet with laser to emit X-rays" light source to work as a production process. Samsung claims to be in full production with it.
- dralley 6y ago7nm+ by TSMC does use EUV. I believe chips produced with it have been shipping for a couple of months now.
- garmaine 6y ago737 Max debacle is an existential crisis for Boeing that is still playing out, so I’m not sure what you’re saying here.
- williamstein 6y agoAnd people sadly died...
- fk6aaa545c 6y agoIt does seem like Intel is failing on many fronts in recent years. Totally broken Power Management on Latops (that's why I got AMD-based laptop and am very happy with this). Problems with wifi and bluetooth chips. Lost the anti-trust lawsuit to AMD. Not so good performance compared to recent AMD. And from what I heard even in industrial fields they are a lot of complaints lately. Even Apple is leaving Intel. Not to mention spectre/meltdown fiasco back then.