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Why is Russia or China even trying to take out our satellites at this point? We have SpaceX, guys. We can put replacements up whenever we want to. How about the

Why is Russia or China even trying to take out our satellites at this point? We have SpaceX, guys. We can put replacements up whenever we want to. How about the Russians start figuring out how to use a launch system that isn't worrying about whether or not its saved up enough for retirement?

odomojuli 6y ago
Debris in orbit has a finite limit until we're then trapped on this planet. Micrometeroids and space trash will katamari until we then have to start thinking about blowing significant parts of our geocentric orbit. Warfare in space is a negative-sum game for every player.
- barkingcat 6y ago
  this is how we'll not get to mars. I envision a future where nation-states governed by strong-dictators shoot down each other's mars attempts while also denying climate change exists.
  - anon73044 6y ago
    Sounds like something Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven would write, maybe with some Peter F. Hamilton thrown in for good measure.
- dredmorbius 6y ago
  What is katamari in this sense?
  - odomojuli 6y ago
    Katamari is a Japanese term used for "clump" or "clod". It is basically what dung beetles do. They roll things up until they're bigger. The bigger the ball, the faster it grows from size. Like making a snowman. I'm referring to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEAP-4iUirY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEAP-4iUirY To answer your question, in this sense: I mean to say that the more space debris there is hurtling through our orbit capturing other space debris, the more likely we are to end up with micrometeroids building up mass, momentum and velocity until we just end up with an extremely hostile environment for our satellites and vehicles.
    - dredmorbius 6y ago
      Ah, thanks. I'd found a videogame ref, based on the same definition I now realise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katamari https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katamari There is an established term, Kessler syndrome, effectively a runaway debris cascade: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome
kinghajj 6y ago
How long would it take SpaceX & other companies to launch replacements? (Further, how much would a large attack against US space infrastructure affect SpaceX's capabilities?) In that time, how much damage would be done to US government agencies, military, corporations, and citizens' lives?
- Rebelgecko 6y ago
  Darpa's recent Responsive Launch Competition (launch a payload to space with 30 days notice) ended without a winner. So my guess is more than 30 days, and that's assuming that you already have a replacement ready to launch
mc32 6y ago
I have no clue as to why Russia insists upon playing the neighborhood punk in international politics. I mean to what end? They’ve got massive problems internally, most of their armed forces run on vapors, are they hoping to sell this to the highest bidder? Just a few last chest thumps before they become less relevant? They still have some good lead in some highly technical areas like weapons and rocketry and ancillary technology, but most everything else is being wasted and no one seems to care there. It’s a slow degradation. So much potential just wasted. They could work with Europe, even the US, if they just reset the way they play. Play your part—you’re not the old USSR any more.
- YarickR2 6y ago
  Like, I have no clue why western media is constantly trying to scare citizens. I guess, they need to be kept in a state of alertness, or fear of an enemy.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > I have no clue as to why Russia insists upon playing the neighborhood punk in international politics. This is why: > They’ve got massive problems internally... An external enemy to blame does wonders.
  - TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
    Applies globally. Literally.
  - mc32 6y ago
    I don’t think that’s it. This is more for international audiences. For internal distraction they’ll threaten some Caucasus republic or Ukraine.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      Hard to blame economic woes on internal threats; "the Americans are sanctioning/interfering our exports" is a lot easier to sell. Cuba and North Korea have done this for decades; it works well.
YarickR2 6y ago
No you can't (put something into orbit whenever you want to). Both SpaceX launch sites (Vanderberg AFB and Cape Canaveral) are very close to oceans, and any surface to air missile from a ship in international waters will reliably prevent launch attempts. Of course, this'll mean war, but the same can be said about shooting down sats in space. In other words, this news article is a part of blame and smear campaign against China and Russia; lacking any details and evidence, just like "Taliban bounties"
- hchz 6y ago
  Russian surveillance vessels or warships in the proximity of Cape Canaveral and Kings Bay NSB have and will provoke a fleet-level response of hunter-killer submarines that harass them out of the Atlantic. Russia has no capability to project naval power to this region.
bonestamp2 6y ago
SpaceX is one part of a replacement solution. But, you would still have to fund and build all those replacements... which could take decades, and a lot of surveillance capabilities and therefore a lot of potential deaths could occur in that time from unseen attacks.

odomojuli 6y ago

Debris in orbit has a finite limit until we're then trapped on this planet. Micrometeroids and space trash will katamari until we then have to start thinking about blowing significant parts of our geocentric orbit. Warfare in space is a negative-sum game for every player.

barkingcat 6y ago
this is how we'll not get to mars. I envision a future where nation-states governed by strong-dictators shoot down each other's mars attempts while also denying climate change exists.
- anon73044 6y ago
  Sounds like something Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven would write, maybe with some Peter F. Hamilton thrown in for good measure.
dredmorbius 6y ago
What is katamari in this sense?
- odomojuli 6y ago
  Katamari is a Japanese term used for "clump" or "clod". It is basically what dung beetles do. They roll things up until they're bigger. The bigger the ball, the faster it grows from size. Like making a snowman. I'm referring to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEAP-4iUirY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEAP-4iUirY To answer your question, in this sense: I mean to say that the more space debris there is hurtling through our orbit capturing other space debris, the more likely we are to end up with micrometeroids building up mass, momentum and velocity until we just end up with an extremely hostile environment for our satellites and vehicles.
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    Ah, thanks. I'd found a videogame ref, based on the same definition I now realise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katamari https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katamari There is an established term, Kessler syndrome, effectively a runaway debris cascade: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

kinghajj 6y ago

How long would it take SpaceX & other companies to launch replacements? (Further, how much would a large attack against US space infrastructure affect SpaceX's capabilities?) In that time, how much damage would be done to US government agencies, military, corporations, and citizens' lives?

Rebelgecko 6y ago
Darpa's recent Responsive Launch Competition (launch a payload to space with 30 days notice) ended without a winner. So my guess is more than 30 days, and that's assuming that you already have a replacement ready to launch

mc32 6y ago

I have no clue as to why Russia insists upon playing the neighborhood punk in international politics. I mean to what end? They’ve got massive problems internally, most of their armed forces run on vapors, are they hoping to sell this to the highest bidder? Just a few last chest thumps before they become less relevant? They still have some good lead in some highly technical areas like weapons and rocketry and ancillary technology, but most everything else is being wasted and no one seems to care there. It’s a slow degradation. So much potential just wasted. They could work with Europe, even the US, if they just reset the way they play. Play your part—you’re not the old USSR any more.

YarickR2 6y ago
Like, I have no clue why western media is constantly trying to scare citizens. I guess, they need to be kept in a state of alertness, or fear of an enemy.
ceejayoz 6y ago
> I have no clue as to why Russia insists upon playing the neighborhood punk in international politics. This is why: > They’ve got massive problems internally... An external enemy to blame does wonders.
- TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
  Applies globally. Literally.
- mc32 6y ago
  I don’t think that’s it. This is more for international audiences. For internal distraction they’ll threaten some Caucasus republic or Ukraine.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    Hard to blame economic woes on internal threats; "the Americans are sanctioning/interfering our exports" is a lot easier to sell. Cuba and North Korea have done this for decades; it works well.

YarickR2 6y ago

No you can't (put something into orbit whenever you want to). Both SpaceX launch sites (Vanderberg AFB and Cape Canaveral) are very close to oceans, and any surface to air missile from a ship in international waters will reliably prevent launch attempts. Of course, this'll mean war, but the same can be said about shooting down sats in space. In other words, this news article is a part of blame and smear campaign against China and Russia; lacking any details and evidence, just like "Taliban bounties"

hchz 6y ago
Russian surveillance vessels or warships in the proximity of Cape Canaveral and Kings Bay NSB have and will provoke a fleet-level response of hunter-killer submarines that harass them out of the Atlantic. Russia has no capability to project naval power to this region.

bonestamp2 6y ago

SpaceX is one part of a replacement solution. But, you would still have to fund and build all those replacements... which could take decades, and a lot of surveillance capabilities and therefore a lot of potential deaths could occur in that time from unseen attacks.