5 ms·

Top Scientists Just Ruled Out Best-Case Global Warming Scenarios

30 points by yogthos 6y ago

pauljurczak 6y ago
They also ruled out the worst case scenario, but this doesn't sell equally well...
- semaj111 6y ago
  It makes sense to phrase it like that when politics worldwilde neglected the issue presumably hoping for best case scenarios.
  - devcouvert 6y ago
    >It makes sense to phrase it like that No, it's lying by omission.
    - makomk 6y ago
      Especially given that the media has been pushing a narrative that the worst-case scenarioes are our actual reality (or even worse-than-worst-case ones), so ruling them out is in fact incredibly significant - it's effectively ruling out what readers of articles like this one are likely to expect to actually happen. (To be fair, it looks like Bloomberg are slightly better than some of the rest of the press in that they seem to have rejected stuff like RCP8.5 that has already been falsified by what's actually happened, rather than pretending it matches reality.)
  - imtringued 6y ago
    "Best case scenario" is a moving target when you do nothing.
  - goatinaboat 6y ago
    It makes sense to phrase it like that when politics worldwilde neglected the issue presumably hoping for best case scenarios. Constantly banging the drum of the worst case scenario has lead to doom fatigue. That is the only explanation for the current apathy.
- devcouvert 6y ago
  >They also ruled out the worst case scenario, but this doesn't sell equally well... Fear sells better.
  - netsharc 6y ago
    An imaginary doctor tells you: "You have between 2-10 years left to live." A few months later: "Ah, we have an update, you have 4-8 years." Yay?
- solstice 6y ago
  True but from what I understand of the matter (which isn't that much tbf), +2.3C is predicted to be already pretty fucking horrible, to say nothing of +3C...
  - pauljurczak 6y ago
    +3C still sounds much better than +4.5C, which was the upper bound mentioned there.
    - ThePowerOfFuet 6y ago
      It was +3.9.
- yogthos 6y ago
  That doesn't make the scenarios we're headed for any less horrific.
semaj111 6y ago
It makes sense to phrase it like that when politics worldwilde neglected the issue presumably hoping for best case scenarios.
- credit_guy 6y ago
  Which politics neglected the issue? On an almost daily basis I hear a new statement like "UK will ban all petrol and diesel cars by 2035" [1]. Sure, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement, but individual states, like California, New York or Massachusetts still have a very strong environmental agenda. For example "California bans government purchase of gas vehicles" [2]. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123 [2] https://www.truckinginfo.com/344909/california-bans-government-purchase-of-gas-vehicles https://www.truckinginfo.com/344909/california-bans-governme...
- jbdigriz 6y ago
  Saying this is asserting the "by any means necessary" doctrine whereby manipulation and misrepresentation are the first spots on the decent into outright propaganda and tyranny. Why not disconnect your internet abs unplug from everything yourself if genuinely so concerned? At least prove your principled instead of just power hungry for control
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azepoi 6y ago
I don't understand why these articles don't link or at least provide a full title of the paper. The paper itself: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence, Sherwood et al., Reviews of Geophysics, 2020, doi: 10.1029/2019RG000678 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000678 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019... preprint manuscript: https://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/WCRP_ECS_Final_manuscript_2019RG000678R_FINAL_200720.pdf https://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/WC... another mainstream article on the subject https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200722112648.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200722112648.h... > Four years of research confidently narrows range of 1.5°C-4.5°C down to 2.3°C-3.9°C

30 points by yogthos 6y ago

pauljurczak 6y ago

They also ruled out the worst case scenario, but this doesn't sell equally well...

semaj111 6y ago
It makes sense to phrase it like that when politics worldwilde neglected the issue presumably hoping for best case scenarios.
- devcouvert 6y ago
  >It makes sense to phrase it like that No, it's lying by omission.
  - makomk 6y ago
    Especially given that the media has been pushing a narrative that the worst-case scenarioes are our actual reality (or even worse-than-worst-case ones), so ruling them out is in fact incredibly significant - it's effectively ruling out what readers of articles like this one are likely to expect to actually happen. (To be fair, it looks like Bloomberg are slightly better than some of the rest of the press in that they seem to have rejected stuff like RCP8.5 that has already been falsified by what's actually happened, rather than pretending it matches reality.)
- imtringued 6y ago
  "Best case scenario" is a moving target when you do nothing.
- goatinaboat 6y ago
  It makes sense to phrase it like that when politics worldwilde neglected the issue presumably hoping for best case scenarios. Constantly banging the drum of the worst case scenario has lead to doom fatigue. That is the only explanation for the current apathy.
devcouvert 6y ago
>They also ruled out the worst case scenario, but this doesn't sell equally well... Fear sells better.
- netsharc 6y ago
  An imaginary doctor tells you: "You have between 2-10 years left to live." A few months later: "Ah, we have an update, you have 4-8 years." Yay?
solstice 6y ago
True but from what I understand of the matter (which isn't that much tbf), +2.3C is predicted to be already pretty fucking horrible, to say nothing of +3C...
- pauljurczak 6y ago
  +3C still sounds much better than +4.5C, which was the upper bound mentioned there.
  - ThePowerOfFuet 6y ago
    It was +3.9.
yogthos 6y ago
That doesn't make the scenarios we're headed for any less horrific.

semaj111 6y ago

It makes sense to phrase it like that when politics worldwilde neglected the issue presumably hoping for best case scenarios.

credit_guy 6y ago
Which politics neglected the issue? On an almost daily basis I hear a new statement like "UK will ban all petrol and diesel cars by 2035" [1]. Sure, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement, but individual states, like California, New York or Massachusetts still have a very strong environmental agenda. For example "California bans government purchase of gas vehicles" [2]. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123 [2] https://www.truckinginfo.com/344909/california-bans-government-purchase-of-gas-vehicles https://www.truckinginfo.com/344909/california-bans-governme...
jbdigriz 6y ago
Saying this is asserting the "by any means necessary" doctrine whereby manipulation and misrepresentation are the first spots on the decent into outright propaganda and tyranny. Why not disconnect your internet abs unplug from everything yourself if genuinely so concerned? At least prove your principled instead of just power hungry for control

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deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

azepoi 6y ago

I don't understand why these articles don't link or at least provide a full title of the paper. The paper itself: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence, Sherwood et al., Reviews of Geophysics, 2020, doi: 10.1029/2019RG000678 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000678 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019... preprint manuscript: https://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/WCRP_ECS_Final_manuscript_2019RG000678R_FINAL_200720.pdf https://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/WC... another mainstream article on the subject https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200722112648.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200722112648.h... > Four years of research confidently narrows range of 1.5°C-4.5°C down to 2.3°C-3.9°C