7 ms·

> Thiel has made a variety of enemies in the tech world and beyond; for example, he has slammed Google as being too accommodating to China. You can tell the sm

> Thiel has made a variety of enemies in the tech world and beyond; for example, he has slammed Google as being too accommodating to China. You can tell the smart guys from the smart-sounding ones by looking closely at how good of an understanding of the real world they have, measured by how many true non-obvious predictions they make. Paul Graham, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Peter Thiel score high. To grow ones understanding of the world one must be open, look closely, read those interviews and books, form your own opinion, without prejudice or partisan filters.

random314 6y ago
> Paul Graham, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Peter Thiel score high One of them in this list is not like the others.
- MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
  All of them are risk takers and public intellectuals. They are independently wealthy, none of them need the exposure or income from peddling certain ideas or catering to a certain audience. I can't even tell which you one you mean, let alone for what reason.
  - random314 6y ago
    One of them is a crazy raging racist. You missed that. EDIT: I can't believe I have to justify what is public knowledge https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/500569299/major-trump-backers-positive-comments-about-apartheid-stir-anger https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/50... https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461193-ann-coulter-peter-thiel-slated-to-host-fundraiser-for-kobachs-senate-bid%3famp https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4...
    - fooker 6y ago
      Does that invalidate their opinions about other matters?
      - mwfunk 6y ago
        I dunno, if someone was a flat-earther or an anti-vaxer I would be really uninterested in their opinions on pretty much anything because they're obviously batshit crazy. I don't see how being a raging racist is any more rational or any less damning to one's credibility than being a flat-earther or an anti-vaxer.
        halfcat 6y ago
        > if someone was a ___ or a ___ I would be really uninterested in their opinions on pretty much anything because they're obviously ___ Dismissing one’s ideas based on group membership is a terrible strategy for truth-seeking. It’s a root of all kinds of problems we see with team-based politics where both sides have turned their brain off and largely accept the entire slate of talking points their side serves up. It also borders on the definition of bigotry.
        amanaplanacanal 6y ago
        They weren’t talking about group membership, but about misunderstanding some basic things about how the world works.
        shkkmo 6y ago
        I had a flat-earthier as a roommate for about half a year. We had some detailed discussions about his beliefs, which was interesting since my time at the South Pole gives me personal experience that directly contradicts most of his beliefs. The guy clear had a very poor understanding of math (especially geometry) and physics (especially optics) but was a generally nice guy with a good head on his shoulders. I would trust very ñittle he had to say about things outside of his direct experience, since his BS detector was apparently broken, but I would tend to trust his knowledge of things he had dealt with directly. While I don't judge people for their ideological bent, I do judge them for uncritically accepting BS because it fits their ideological bent. This leads me to dismiss many of the knowledge and opinions of people who find themselves trapped in the ideological games played by our media.
    - MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
      Instead of assuming that "surely every sane person" must share your point of view, can you point to specific accusations and sources that validate them? You might just convince someone you have actually a point, if your arguments hold up.
    - jamiequint 6y ago
      I assume you're talking about Thiel and maybe China, but still don't actually know. Have you ever actually listened to any of Thiel's talks and the reasons why he takes particular stances? If you did you'd realize that his stances on things like China are related to geopolitics and economics, not race.
  - lvs 6y ago
    Public intellectuals? Perhaps the public within a small geographical area. Maybe even just a couple of zip codes.
- dang 6y ago
  Please stop posting unsubstantive comments and/or flamebait to HN. You've been doing it repeatedly, unfortunately, and we ban that sort of account. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and sticking to the rules when posting here, we'd be grateful.
  - random314 6y ago
    I cannot even begin to understand why stating something that is well known is considered flamebait? Everyone knows Peter Thiel is a die-hard Trump supporter with a very strong anti-immigrant agenda, he has been a supporter of Apartheid and has strong ties to white nationalism. Why is stating any of this considered flamebait? I have given references in other comments. Your reply OTOH is unsubstantive. I have noticed a pattern of unsubstantiated rebukes in many of your comments. You might be overloaded with moderation work and I recommend that you add new moderators. https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/500569299/major-trump-backers-positive-comments-about-apartheid-stir-anger https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/50... https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461193-ann-coulter-peter-thiel-slated-to-host-fundraiser-for-kobachs-senate-bid https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461193-ann-coulter-pet... https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=rAQWX_WWJOLl9AOPrrXYBw&q=peter+thiel+racism&oq=peter+thiel+racism https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=rAQWX_WWJOLl9AOPr... AFAIK, Peter Thiel isn't even working with Y combinator anymore. @dang can you explain why there is this need for aggressive censorhip around Peter Thiel. https://fortune.com/2017/11/19/y-combinator-peter-thiel/ https://fortune.com/2017/11/19/y-combinator-peter-thiel/
    - random314 6y ago
      https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/06/09/paypal-co-founder-peter-thiel-address-white-nationalist-friendly-%E2%80%9Cproperty-and-freedom https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/06/09/paypal-co-fou...
  - random314 6y ago
    Here is the most upvoted comment that has not been rebuked by you "Holy shit. This is some absolutely astonishing levels of idiocy. Everyone want to know why a 33-year old was chosen? Because he can be controlled. Full stop. " Its almost like you know that rebuking the most popular comment is going to gut your reputation as a moderator. So you go around looking for a comment that has more substance that attracted more negative votes because of timing and random chance and reply with rebukes and a link to the guidelines? I cannot for the life of me understand what the substance and logic of your rebuke was? Why were you triggered so badly? If someone thinks Peter Thiel has strong ties to white nationalism (with references to NPR and what not) they should not participate in this discussion forum, or at the very minimum stay silent about it? What is the end goal of the moderation here?
Barrin92 6y ago
If you have the connections to send a 33 year old without a science background to head research and engineering at the pentagon things coming true isn't a function of being smart or predicting anything but just being close to money and power. Making things true by pulling your wallet or smartphone out of the pocket isn't exactly a good proxy for intellect. Also ironically Taleb's most salient observation is that smart people should be very aware of the fact that the things that actually matter can't really be predicted at all.
- tmpz22 6y ago
  The fact that Palantir wasn't stapled front and center as the catalyst for huge amounts of police abuse and corruption during the BLM protests is a testament to Thiel's position in the military industrial complex.
Seasonwreckage 6y ago
A general flaw in pure capitalism is the how quick companies break morals and principles to 'increase shareholder value'. You have some of the richest CEOs in the planet who, in critical moments, cannot voice their true opinion. It's sad when leaders regurgitate 'safe' or bland comments in interviews.
- blaser-waffle 6y ago
  Capitalism has no moral principle except to increase shareholder value and amass capital. Keeping their mouth shut and pandering to Trump, Saudi, China, et al, is exactly in service to those values.
- dang 6y ago
  Can you please not create accounts to do ideological flamewar with? It's not what this site is for. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - Seasonwreckage 6y ago
    Wtf are you talking about? My opinion is flamewar now?
- random314 6y ago
  I have no idea what logic @dang uses to flag comments. You should check my comment history. I am pretty sure this reply is also going to get flagged.
TLightful 6y ago
They're all, one literally, blood sucking pr!cks.
- dang 6y ago
  Ok, but please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.
  - TLightful 6y ago
    Ok, but I really feel that my comment was the main substance of this matter. Easily verifiable.
    - dang 6y ago
      That sort of denunciatory rhetoric is not substance; it's name-calling. That makes it against the site guidelines. Would you mind reviewing them and taking the intended spirit of this site more to heart? We want curious conversation here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Also, you've posted many such unsubstantive comments, and we eventually ban that sort of account.
      - TLightful 6y ago
        Ok, I will try harder. FYI: https://www.theverge.com/21331900/peter-thiel-kris-kobach-kansas-senate-primary-immigration-facebook https://www.theverge.com/21331900/peter-thiel-kris-kobach-ka... Sounds like Thiel has had his daily top up.
MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
If anyone wants an amuse gueule for the thought of Peter Thiel, this is a good one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRleB034EC8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRleB034EC8 So many interesting, fundamental topics.
Upvoter33 6y ago
"Paul Graham, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Peter Thiel score high" You say this is measured by the number of "true non-obvious predictions" - can you list those for each of these folks? I'd also think a batting average would be useful, instead of just a count of "correct predictions".
- tomhoward 6y ago
  Off the top of my head (and with no endorsement of related politics/ideology): Paul Graham: - That web-based apps were the future of software; the product that made him rich the first time around was Viaweb, the first ever web application, built in about 1995 when everyone else was selling thick-client Windows desktop apps in shrink-wrap boxes (http://www.paulgraham.com/road.html http://www.paulgraham.com/road.html) - That Yahoo was effectively a Ponzi scheme in 1998-99 (http://www.paulgraham.com/bubble.html http://www.paulgraham.com/bubble.html) - That startups using niche languages like (in 2004) Python and Ruby would do better than those using mainstream platforms like Java and MS .Net (http://www.paulgraham.com/pypar.html http://www.paulgraham.com/pypar.html) - That Bayesian filtering was a better approach to spam filtering (http://www.paulgraham.com/spam.html http://www.paulgraham.com/spam.html) - That startups were becoming dramatically cheaper/easier to start, and therefore could be started by fewer, younger people, didn't need "business people" early on, could get much further without needing to sell controlling stakes to VCs, and could effectively be mass-produced (http://www.paulgraham.com/webstartups.html http://www.paulgraham.com/webstartups.html) - That a team of founders who funded themselves by selling novelty breakfast cereal would build an amazing company, even if their idea seemed to suck (http://www.paulgraham.com/airbnb.html http://www.paulgraham.com/airbnb.html) - That a new, tech-focused news discussion forum, in a world that already had Slashdot and Reddit, could become popular and could remain popular for many years by employing specific mechanisms to raise the standards of content and discussion (http://paulgraham.com/hackernews.html http://paulgraham.com/hackernews.html) Nassim Taleb: - He explained the fundamental weaknesses in the economic system that would lead to crashes like 2007-08, and the present turmoil. - Has made huge financial gains during each of the major financial market crashes of the past 35 years: 1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, 2020 (https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/bloombergProfile.pdf https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/bloombergProfile.pdf, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-adv...) - Was on record suggesting a Trump win was more likely than most believed - https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-you-dont-have-to-worry-about-a-trump-presidency.html https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-tal... - Was among the earliest raising the alarm about the Covid-19 pandemic https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208?lang=en https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208?lang=... - Was predicting that a pandemic was the world's greatest risk at least 7 years ago (don't have time to sift through all the material but plenty is out there if you care to search for it) Peter Thiel: - Identified in 1993 that Silicon Valley offered more compelling career opportunities than NYC legal/securities work - With Max Levchin, predicted that a money transfer platform would be one of the most important pieces of infrastructure, so launched PayPal, and built the team that enabled them to win the market - Made first investment in Facebook, predicting that it would be a key piece of internet infrastructure due to its focus on identity, and that Zuckerberg - then aged 20 - would be able to execute - Identified that big data analytics could be useful/attractive for government intelligence agencies, founded Palantir - Was one of the first to suggest, in 2011, that the U.S. higher education market was in a bubble (https://techcrunch.com/2011/04/10/peter-thiel-were-in-a-bubble-and-its-not-the-internet-its-higher-education/ https://techcrunch.com/2011/04/10/peter-thiel-were-in-a-bubb...). (Granted this hasn't been proven yet but there are signs the current crisis may be the needle that brings on the burst). - Understood that a well-executed operation could take down Gawker - Saw that Trump could win in 2016, and would be worth his while to endorse/support === No doubt they've all made predictions that have turned out to be wrong or mistimed. I follow Graham and Taleb on Twitter and often see them make comments I disagree with or doubt. You could argue that this was a false prediction by PG: http://www.paulgraham.com/divergence.html http://www.paulgraham.com/divergence.html But it's not really; he was posing a question, which helped him to make further decisions about how to proceed as he built YC. YC itself has funded many more companies that failed than succeeded, but that's fundamental to the business model - http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html What matters is that they're able to identify investment opportunities with a very big upside potential relative to the downside risk, and back them even if almost everyone else believes they're insignificant/wrong/stupid. Thiel's investment fund Clarium Capital has famously lost plenty of money, but other investments of his have performed spectacularly well; that's how investing works. Bottom line: all three of them have become vastly wealthy by repeatedly making bets that others didn't notice or thought were stupid.

random314 6y ago

> Paul Graham, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Peter Thiel score high One of them in this list is not like the others.

MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
All of them are risk takers and public intellectuals. They are independently wealthy, none of them need the exposure or income from peddling certain ideas or catering to a certain audience. I can't even tell which you one you mean, let alone for what reason.
- random314 6y ago
  One of them is a crazy raging racist. You missed that. EDIT: I can't believe I have to justify what is public knowledge https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/500569299/major-trump-backers-positive-comments-about-apartheid-stir-anger https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/50... https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461193-ann-coulter-peter-thiel-slated-to-host-fundraiser-for-kobachs-senate-bid%3famp https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4...
  - fooker 6y ago
    Does that invalidate their opinions about other matters?
    - mwfunk 6y ago
      I dunno, if someone was a flat-earther or an anti-vaxer I would be really uninterested in their opinions on pretty much anything because they're obviously batshit crazy. I don't see how being a raging racist is any more rational or any less damning to one's credibility than being a flat-earther or an anti-vaxer.
      - halfcat 6y ago
        > if someone was a ___ or a ___ I would be really uninterested in their opinions on pretty much anything because they're obviously ___ Dismissing one’s ideas based on group membership is a terrible strategy for truth-seeking. It’s a root of all kinds of problems we see with team-based politics where both sides have turned their brain off and largely accept the entire slate of talking points their side serves up. It also borders on the definition of bigotry.
        amanaplanacanal 6y ago
        They weren’t talking about group membership, but about misunderstanding some basic things about how the world works.
        shkkmo 6y ago
        I had a flat-earthier as a roommate for about half a year. We had some detailed discussions about his beliefs, which was interesting since my time at the South Pole gives me personal experience that directly contradicts most of his beliefs. The guy clear had a very poor understanding of math (especially geometry) and physics (especially optics) but was a generally nice guy with a good head on his shoulders. I would trust very ñittle he had to say about things outside of his direct experience, since his BS detector was apparently broken, but I would tend to trust his knowledge of things he had dealt with directly. While I don't judge people for their ideological bent, I do judge them for uncritically accepting BS because it fits their ideological bent. This leads me to dismiss many of the knowledge and opinions of people who find themselves trapped in the ideological games played by our media.
  - MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
    Instead of assuming that "surely every sane person" must share your point of view, can you point to specific accusations and sources that validate them? You might just convince someone you have actually a point, if your arguments hold up.
  - jamiequint 6y ago
    I assume you're talking about Thiel and maybe China, but still don't actually know. Have you ever actually listened to any of Thiel's talks and the reasons why he takes particular stances? If you did you'd realize that his stances on things like China are related to geopolitics and economics, not race.
- lvs 6y ago
  Public intellectuals? Perhaps the public within a small geographical area. Maybe even just a couple of zip codes.
dang 6y ago
Please stop posting unsubstantive comments and/or flamebait to HN. You've been doing it repeatedly, unfortunately, and we ban that sort of account. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and sticking to the rules when posting here, we'd be grateful.
- random314 6y ago
  I cannot even begin to understand why stating something that is well known is considered flamebait? Everyone knows Peter Thiel is a die-hard Trump supporter with a very strong anti-immigrant agenda, he has been a supporter of Apartheid and has strong ties to white nationalism. Why is stating any of this considered flamebait? I have given references in other comments. Your reply OTOH is unsubstantive. I have noticed a pattern of unsubstantiated rebukes in many of your comments. You might be overloaded with moderation work and I recommend that you add new moderators. https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/500569299/major-trump-backers-positive-comments-about-apartheid-stir-anger https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/03/50... https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461193-ann-coulter-peter-thiel-slated-to-host-fundraiser-for-kobachs-senate-bid https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461193-ann-coulter-pet... https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=rAQWX_WWJOLl9AOPrrXYBw&q=peter+thiel+racism&oq=peter+thiel+racism https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=rAQWX_WWJOLl9AOPr... AFAIK, Peter Thiel isn't even working with Y combinator anymore. @dang can you explain why there is this need for aggressive censorhip around Peter Thiel. https://fortune.com/2017/11/19/y-combinator-peter-thiel/ https://fortune.com/2017/11/19/y-combinator-peter-thiel/
  - random314 6y ago
    https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/06/09/paypal-co-founder-peter-thiel-address-white-nationalist-friendly-%E2%80%9Cproperty-and-freedom https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/06/09/paypal-co-fou...
- random314 6y ago
  Here is the most upvoted comment that has not been rebuked by you "Holy shit. This is some absolutely astonishing levels of idiocy. Everyone want to know why a 33-year old was chosen? Because he can be controlled. Full stop. " Its almost like you know that rebuking the most popular comment is going to gut your reputation as a moderator. So you go around looking for a comment that has more substance that attracted more negative votes because of timing and random chance and reply with rebukes and a link to the guidelines? I cannot for the life of me understand what the substance and logic of your rebuke was? Why were you triggered so badly? If someone thinks Peter Thiel has strong ties to white nationalism (with references to NPR and what not) they should not participate in this discussion forum, or at the very minimum stay silent about it? What is the end goal of the moderation here?

Barrin92 6y ago

If you have the connections to send a 33 year old without a science background to head research and engineering at the pentagon things coming true isn't a function of being smart or predicting anything but just being close to money and power. Making things true by pulling your wallet or smartphone out of the pocket isn't exactly a good proxy for intellect. Also ironically Taleb's most salient observation is that smart people should be very aware of the fact that the things that actually matter can't really be predicted at all.

tmpz22 6y ago
The fact that Palantir wasn't stapled front and center as the catalyst for huge amounts of police abuse and corruption during the BLM protests is a testament to Thiel's position in the military industrial complex.

Seasonwreckage 6y ago

A general flaw in pure capitalism is the how quick companies break morals and principles to 'increase shareholder value'. You have some of the richest CEOs in the planet who, in critical moments, cannot voice their true opinion. It's sad when leaders regurgitate 'safe' or bland comments in interviews.

blaser-waffle 6y ago
Capitalism has no moral principle except to increase shareholder value and amass capital. Keeping their mouth shut and pandering to Trump, Saudi, China, et al, is exactly in service to those values.
dang 6y ago
Can you please not create accounts to do ideological flamewar with? It's not what this site is for. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- Seasonwreckage 6y ago
  Wtf are you talking about? My opinion is flamewar now?
random314 6y ago
I have no idea what logic @dang uses to flag comments. You should check my comment history. I am pretty sure this reply is also going to get flagged.

TLightful 6y ago

They're all, one literally, blood sucking pr!cks.

dang 6y ago
Ok, but please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.
- TLightful 6y ago
  Ok, but I really feel that my comment was the main substance of this matter. Easily verifiable.
  - dang 6y ago
    That sort of denunciatory rhetoric is not substance; it's name-calling. That makes it against the site guidelines. Would you mind reviewing them and taking the intended spirit of this site more to heart? We want curious conversation here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Also, you've posted many such unsubstantive comments, and we eventually ban that sort of account.
    - TLightful 6y ago
      Ok, I will try harder. FYI: https://www.theverge.com/21331900/peter-thiel-kris-kobach-kansas-senate-primary-immigration-facebook https://www.theverge.com/21331900/peter-thiel-kris-kobach-ka... Sounds like Thiel has had his daily top up.

MrBuddyCasino 6y ago

If anyone wants an amuse gueule for the thought of Peter Thiel, this is a good one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRleB034EC8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRleB034EC8 So many interesting, fundamental topics.

Upvoter33 6y ago

"Paul Graham, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Peter Thiel score high" You say this is measured by the number of "true non-obvious predictions" - can you list those for each of these folks? I'd also think a batting average would be useful, instead of just a count of "correct predictions".

tomhoward 6y ago
Off the top of my head (and with no endorsement of related politics/ideology): Paul Graham: - That web-based apps were the future of software; the product that made him rich the first time around was Viaweb, the first ever web application, built in about 1995 when everyone else was selling thick-client Windows desktop apps in shrink-wrap boxes (http://www.paulgraham.com/road.html http://www.paulgraham.com/road.html) - That Yahoo was effectively a Ponzi scheme in 1998-99 (http://www.paulgraham.com/bubble.html http://www.paulgraham.com/bubble.html) - That startups using niche languages like (in 2004) Python and Ruby would do better than those using mainstream platforms like Java and MS .Net (http://www.paulgraham.com/pypar.html http://www.paulgraham.com/pypar.html) - That Bayesian filtering was a better approach to spam filtering (http://www.paulgraham.com/spam.html http://www.paulgraham.com/spam.html) - That startups were becoming dramatically cheaper/easier to start, and therefore could be started by fewer, younger people, didn't need "business people" early on, could get much further without needing to sell controlling stakes to VCs, and could effectively be mass-produced (http://www.paulgraham.com/webstartups.html http://www.paulgraham.com/webstartups.html) - That a team of founders who funded themselves by selling novelty breakfast cereal would build an amazing company, even if their idea seemed to suck (http://www.paulgraham.com/airbnb.html http://www.paulgraham.com/airbnb.html) - That a new, tech-focused news discussion forum, in a world that already had Slashdot and Reddit, could become popular and could remain popular for many years by employing specific mechanisms to raise the standards of content and discussion (http://paulgraham.com/hackernews.html http://paulgraham.com/hackernews.html) Nassim Taleb: - He explained the fundamental weaknesses in the economic system that would lead to crashes like 2007-08, and the present turmoil. - Has made huge financial gains during each of the major financial market crashes of the past 35 years: 1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, 2020 (https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/bloombergProfile.pdf https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/bloombergProfile.pdf, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-adv...) - Was on record suggesting a Trump win was more likely than most believed - https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-you-dont-have-to-worry-about-a-trump-presidency.html https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-tal... - Was among the earliest raising the alarm about the Covid-19 pandemic https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208?lang=en https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208?lang=... - Was predicting that a pandemic was the world's greatest risk at least 7 years ago (don't have time to sift through all the material but plenty is out there if you care to search for it) Peter Thiel: - Identified in 1993 that Silicon Valley offered more compelling career opportunities than NYC legal/securities work - With Max Levchin, predicted that a money transfer platform would be one of the most important pieces of infrastructure, so launched PayPal, and built the team that enabled them to win the market - Made first investment in Facebook, predicting that it would be a key piece of internet infrastructure due to its focus on identity, and that Zuckerberg - then aged 20 - would be able to execute - Identified that big data analytics could be useful/attractive for government intelligence agencies, founded Palantir - Was one of the first to suggest, in 2011, that the U.S. higher education market was in a bubble (https://techcrunch.com/2011/04/10/peter-thiel-were-in-a-bubble-and-its-not-the-internet-its-higher-education/ https://techcrunch.com/2011/04/10/peter-thiel-were-in-a-bubb...). (Granted this hasn't been proven yet but there are signs the current crisis may be the needle that brings on the burst). - Understood that a well-executed operation could take down Gawker - Saw that Trump could win in 2016, and would be worth his while to endorse/support === No doubt they've all made predictions that have turned out to be wrong or mistimed. I follow Graham and Taleb on Twitter and often see them make comments I disagree with or doubt. You could argue that this was a false prediction by PG: http://www.paulgraham.com/divergence.html http://www.paulgraham.com/divergence.html But it's not really; he was posing a question, which helped him to make further decisions about how to proceed as he built YC. YC itself has funded many more companies that failed than succeeded, but that's fundamental to the business model - http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html What matters is that they're able to identify investment opportunities with a very big upside potential relative to the downside risk, and back them even if almost everyone else believes they're insignificant/wrong/stupid. Thiel's investment fund Clarium Capital has famously lost plenty of money, but other investments of his have performed spectacularly well; that's how investing works. Bottom line: all three of them have become vastly wealthy by repeatedly making bets that others didn't notice or thought were stupid.