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A meta point: Cringely is one of those bloggers who, previously, I have slated here on HN - I find his insights into technology poor, badly thought out or both.

by ErrantX 16y ago

A meta point: Cringely is one of those bloggers who, previously, I have slated here on HN - I find his insights into technology poor, badly thought out or both. To make a bad joke; he makes me cringe. So I've been (pleasantly) surprised to find his insights into Japan of actual interest and use. His tone is still a little breathy, and he tends to over-react to some items, but there is some real understanding of the culture/technology involved (I guess a fortunate meet up of having worked heavily in the nuclear industry and Japan). Which goes to show; never completely dismiss commentators, one day they might be useful reading.

pkteison 16y ago
It actually worries me. When I know something about the topic, I find his writing awful and full of problems and obviously dumb. Then, in another area where I know nothing, it seems decent. Is this because it is actually similarly dumb in this other area also, and I just don't know enough to spot it?
- radu_floricica 16y ago
  It's because he's a great writer. But this time he _has_ been surprisingly accurate...
- snippyhollow 16y ago
  Didn't you post this same commentary already? Anyway I agree with you, get my +1; Sry, I mean".".
  - pkteison 16y ago
    Nope, I post rarely. And I scanned the comments for something similar that I could just upvote instead. If it's here, I missed it.
- ErrantX 16y ago
  No. He has errors in this area too. But within the text there are things of interest. A critical reader can pick these out. It's not perfect, but something of use in there.
TomOfTTB 16y ago
There was a whole HN thread that very clearly debunked his previous post on the Japan situation (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2316158 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2316158). If you're finding his writing insightful now it might be a sign that you aren't thinking rationally about the situation. That said I'll list he problems with this paticular article... 1. Japan did ask for our help. The U.S.S. Ronald Reagan was dispatched the day after the Tsunami at Japan's request. Further they've been working with U.S. experts through the entire situation (not the ones you see on TV but those guys aren't real experts) 2. The idea that the TEPCO plant manager is causing trouble because he's "more concerned about his job than his reactor" is absurd. I GUARANTEE the Japanese government took control of this situation the second it became critical. The local plant management is AT BEST serving a support role. 3. Plutonium Contamination water is only a big deal if it seeps into the water supply which it hasn't yet. Otherwise its just more stuff to be buried in cement for thousands of years. So in the end he's still being an alarmist with this just like he is with everything else (this is a guy who predicted internet video was going to cause the internet to collapse in 2010)
- ErrantX 16y ago
  Hmm, take a careful re-read. I wouldn't (and didn't) call him insightful. Past experience of his writing screams "take care". What I did say was that in this case they are interesting, and he does have some insight into the Japanese. As I originally said, he does still over-react, but there are items to reflect on nevertheless. It's worth noting that the USS Ronald Reagan was dispatched in relation to the relief effort, whereas Cringely is talking about the nuclear issue - which are two distinct entities. From a cultural perspective the two incidents stack up differently. On the other hand some US tech was dispatched to help with the reactors, but in a low-key way that was never reported. You should never absorb without critique what people are saying, but in this case there is material of worth in his writing.
  - TomOfTTB 16y ago
    First sorry for misunderstanding your point. Though I still say its a warning sign when someone you think is usually full of it starts making sense (even if its in another area) That said my understanding was the USS Ronald Reagan was dispatched to both help with relief efforts and provide assistance in getting power to the area (they were close enough to the plant that they were forced to flee when things got rough). The RR has two defining characteristics. One it can produce fresh water by itself and two its (ironically) got its own nuclear power source. So my understanding was it was also providing power to the surrounding area. Edit: According to news reports the USS Ronald Reagan was actually delivering fresh water to aide in the cooling efforts (http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=59318 http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=59318) not power. My bad.

by ErrantX 16y ago

pkteison 16y ago

It actually worries me. When I know something about the topic, I find his writing awful and full of problems and obviously dumb. Then, in another area where I know nothing, it seems decent. Is this because it is actually similarly dumb in this other area also, and I just don't know enough to spot it?

radu_floricica 16y ago
It's because he's a great writer. But this time he _has_ been surprisingly accurate...
snippyhollow 16y ago
Didn't you post this same commentary already? Anyway I agree with you, get my +1; Sry, I mean".".
- pkteison 16y ago
  Nope, I post rarely. And I scanned the comments for something similar that I could just upvote instead. If it's here, I missed it.
ErrantX 16y ago
No. He has errors in this area too. But within the text there are things of interest. A critical reader can pick these out. It's not perfect, but something of use in there.

TomOfTTB 16y ago

There was a whole HN thread that very clearly debunked his previous post on the Japan situation (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2316158 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2316158). If you're finding his writing insightful now it might be a sign that you aren't thinking rationally about the situation. That said I'll list he problems with this paticular article... 1. Japan did ask for our help. The U.S.S. Ronald Reagan was dispatched the day after the Tsunami at Japan's request. Further they've been working with U.S. experts through the entire situation (not the ones you see on TV but those guys aren't real experts) 2. The idea that the TEPCO plant manager is causing trouble because he's "more concerned about his job than his reactor" is absurd. I GUARANTEE the Japanese government took control of this situation the second it became critical. The local plant management is AT BEST serving a support role. 3. Plutonium Contamination water is only a big deal if it seeps into the water supply which it hasn't yet. Otherwise its just more stuff to be buried in cement for thousands of years. So in the end he's still being an alarmist with this just like he is with everything else (this is a guy who predicted internet video was going to cause the internet to collapse in 2010)

ErrantX 16y ago
Hmm, take a careful re-read. I wouldn't (and didn't) call him insightful. Past experience of his writing screams "take care". What I did say was that in this case they are interesting, and he does have some insight into the Japanese. As I originally said, he does still over-react, but there are items to reflect on nevertheless. It's worth noting that the USS Ronald Reagan was dispatched in relation to the relief effort, whereas Cringely is talking about the nuclear issue - which are two distinct entities. From a cultural perspective the two incidents stack up differently. On the other hand some US tech was dispatched to help with the reactors, but in a low-key way that was never reported. You should never absorb without critique what people are saying, but in this case there is material of worth in his writing.
- TomOfTTB 16y ago
  First sorry for misunderstanding your point. Though I still say its a warning sign when someone you think is usually full of it starts making sense (even if its in another area) That said my understanding was the USS Ronald Reagan was dispatched to both help with relief efforts and provide assistance in getting power to the area (they were close enough to the plant that they were forced to flee when things got rough). The RR has two defining characteristics. One it can produce fresh water by itself and two its (ironically) got its own nuclear power source. So my understanding was it was also providing power to the surrounding area. Edit: According to news reports the USS Ronald Reagan was actually delivering fresh water to aide in the cooling efforts (http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=59318 http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=59318) not power. My bad.