6 ms·

> You’re implying that people who have mild cases (>99% of all cases; remember: over 40% cases are so mild The death rate alone is ~0.8%. There are another few

by ivalm 6y ago

> You’re implying that people who have mild cases (>99% of all cases; remember: over 40% cases are so mild The death rate alone is ~0.8%. There are another few percent that require hospitalization. The >99% of covid cases are not mild.

hkeide 6y ago
Are you talking about confirmed cases here?
- ivalm 6y ago
  I am talking about serological studies in Italy and South Korea. For confirmed cases death rates are 5%, but that’s because a bunch of people are positive and untested (many of them asymptomatic). One thing to remember that at any one time there might be 99% not serious, but that includes a bunch of people who are recovering from serious or who will degrade to serious. Over the full cycle of the disease a much larger percentage will have a serious state. Close to 1% will die. At the same time, being in prone position, getting steroids, etc really do seem to increase survival so maybe the death rate now is lower.
timr 6y ago
"The death rate alone is ~0.8%." It is not. The current estimates for IFR run from ~0.2-0.7%. The current best estimate of IFR from the CDC is 0.65%, with the deaths skewed heavily to the elderly and infirm. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
- tigershark 6y ago
  CDC estimate, just 1 week ago, before this catastrophic correction, was 0.25% or something similar. MONTHS ago we had the results from a huge Spanish study that put the mortality rate at around 1% and it was perfectly coherent with the Italian and New York studies. Why should we believe their current estimate when we have multiple results that actually give us a pretty high confidence of the actual mortality rate instead of looking at what seem like completely random figures?

6 ms·

> You’re implying that people who have mild cases (>99% of all cases; remember: over 40% cases are so mild The death rate alone is ~0.8%. There are another few

by ivalm 6y ago

hkeide 6y ago
Are you talking about confirmed cases here?
- ivalm 6y ago
  I am talking about serological studies in Italy and South Korea. For confirmed cases death rates are 5%, but that’s because a bunch of people are positive and untested (many of them asymptomatic). One thing to remember that at any one time there might be 99% not serious, but that includes a bunch of people who are recovering from serious or who will degrade to serious. Over the full cycle of the disease a much larger percentage will have a serious state. Close to 1% will die. At the same time, being in prone position, getting steroids, etc really do seem to increase survival so maybe the death rate now is lower.
timr 6y ago
"The death rate alone is ~0.8%." It is not. The current estimates for IFR run from ~0.2-0.7%. The current best estimate of IFR from the CDC is 0.65%, with the deaths skewed heavily to the elderly and infirm. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
- tigershark 6y ago
  CDC estimate, just 1 week ago, before this catastrophic correction, was 0.25% or something similar. MONTHS ago we had the results from a huge Spanish study that put the mortality rate at around 1% and it was perfectly coherent with the Italian and New York studies. Why should we believe their current estimate when we have multiple results that actually give us a pretty high confidence of the actual mortality rate instead of looking at what seem like completely random figures?