5 ms·

>None of the developers would have been able to find land, make deals, develop projects, The tract builders already bought and developed the land (e.g. ~100 p

by jasode 6y ago

>None of the developers would have been able to find land, make deals, develop projects, The tract builders already bought and developed the land (e.g. ~100 parceled lots) before COVID but the individual lots were unsold. The "housing starts" statistics are official US Department of Commerce data instead self-reported numbers by homebuilders so it's very possible that there was a real uptick in selling off those unsold lots that were previously moving slowly. E.g. See satellite photo of two neighborhoods in suburbia under development by a tract builder like Toll Brothers: https://www.google.com/maps/search/toll+brothers+neighborhood/@41.0679557,-74.1229404,3707m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.com/maps/search/toll+brothers+neighborhoo... ... and the street view shows the showcase model home and the construction equipment already building on those lots: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.0783819,-74.1180052,3a,75y,137.55h,89.82t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1szw4-r33vUhek7c05T7SFqA!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo2.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3Dzw4-r33vUhek7c05T7SFqA%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D99.513%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192 https://www.google.com/maps/@41.0783819,-74.1180052,3a,75y,1... Multiply that type of scenario happening all over the country and getting accelerated by coranavirus fears. A builder can get heavy equipment out on the empty lot within a few weeks after a new house contract is signed. I do agree that skepticism is warranted. We should be seeing parallel stories of falling prices of city apartments and condos.

brogrammernot 6y ago
Which we have started to see within the Bay Area and other higher rent areas. The really interesting thing to watch will be commercial real estate, but those leases are longer & either impossible or expensive to break. We’ll see how the remote culture change impacts commercial real restate and if companies stop signing new leases & don’t renew them either once they run their course.
- ghaff 6y ago
  >those leases are longer & either impossible or expensive to break Unless a small business, e.g. restaurant, simply goes out of business. As is happening all over the place.
  - topkai22 6y ago
    My prediction is that commercial real estate is in for a bad time. The shift to remote work appears to be sticking enough that plenty of businesses are going to be really questioning thier facilities budget, and I doubt food or personal services are going to fully recover quickly. I have no idea what retail will do, but it had issues before the crisis.
  - brogrammernot 6y ago
    Yeah different scenario than I was talking about. I’m thinking the 50,000+ square foot commercial properties that are on 5-10 year leases
nradov 6y ago
Anecdotally I have heard that a lot of commercial projects have recently been suspended so there are also more construction works available for residential work.

by jasode 6y ago

brogrammernot 6y ago

Which we have started to see within the Bay Area and other higher rent areas. The really interesting thing to watch will be commercial real estate, but those leases are longer & either impossible or expensive to break. We’ll see how the remote culture change impacts commercial real restate and if companies stop signing new leases & don’t renew them either once they run their course.

ghaff 6y ago
>those leases are longer & either impossible or expensive to break Unless a small business, e.g. restaurant, simply goes out of business. As is happening all over the place.
- topkai22 6y ago
  My prediction is that commercial real estate is in for a bad time. The shift to remote work appears to be sticking enough that plenty of businesses are going to be really questioning thier facilities budget, and I doubt food or personal services are going to fully recover quickly. I have no idea what retail will do, but it had issues before the crisis.
- brogrammernot 6y ago
  Yeah different scenario than I was talking about. I’m thinking the 50,000+ square foot commercial properties that are on 5-10 year leases

nradov 6y ago

Anecdotally I have heard that a lot of commercial projects have recently been suspended so there are also more construction works available for residential work.