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Is this propaganda to help relax the home owning population? If the jobless rate and GDP continue to suffer I can’t see this being anything but bad for rural a

by nsl73 6y ago

Is this propaganda to help relax the home owning population? If the jobless rate and GDP continue to suffer I can’t see this being anything but bad for rural and suburban real estate.

NDizzle 6y ago
We’ve had riots, inaction by mayors, and ridiculous decisions by leaders in large metro areas for the past month. Nobody in their right mind is staying in cities, especially after the insane selective application of laws and ordinances the last 5-6 weeks. Who would buy a nice place in, for example, St. Louis right now?!
- yhoneycomb 6y ago
  > Nobody in their right mind is staying in cities You sound like a boomer who just wants confirmation bias. Everyone wants to live in cities. The protests were a great thing.
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  >We’ve had riots >Who would buy a nice place in, oh, for example St. Louis, right now?! People who want to live there regardless and see an opportunity to spend less money doing so. They're the same people who buy real-estate on the cheap after it's value has been depressed by a "fresh in people's minds" disaster in any other location. Live in a city. Deal with city problems. If you want to live in Nebraska don't be surprised if a tornado flattens your property. If you want to live in Florida don't be surprised if it's underwater. Having rioters burn your home to the ground is simply the mode of destruction you accept some risk of by living in a city. Personally I'd rather deal with nature trying to destroy my stuff rather than people trying to destroy my stuff but I can understand why people want to live in the city.
  - justjash 6y ago
    Yeah, I don't think there are any issues with people moving to cities if they want to live there. Just because there are protests, etc. going on doesn't mean the entire city is on fire...
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - unethical_ban 6y ago
    We shouldn't legitimize the mindset the parent is pushing, that riots have swept the nation. Protests swept the nation. Many cities had increased vandalism. A small number had anything approaching riots. I am renting a house very near the city center. Were it not for the home prices, I would love to own here... though another poster made a good point. All the good reasons to live in the city (night life, people watching, proximity to friends and services and hobbies) are closed down. At least I can walk to the grocery store.
    - DenisM 6y ago
      > legitimize the mindset the parent is pushing Is this phrase the same as "I disagree with the parent"?
    - rootusrootus 6y ago
      > Many cities had increased vandalism You say that like it's a past event. Portland is still seeing riot activity. They have done a fair amount of damage downtown. I feel sad for the peaceful BLM protestors because much of the general public will not draw a distinction, so this kind of behavior will blunt their message.
    - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
      You're misinterpreting my comment. Riots haven't swept the nation any more than a hurricane moving up the gulf coast "sweeps the nation". It's just that's the form of disaster that tends to strike cities and I don't think people should be acting like it's unexpected.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    > live in Nebraska don't be surprised if a tornado flattens your property For what it's worth, the average person in Tornado alley will live their entire life without ever seeing an actual tornado, much less get flattened by one.
    - vonmoltke 6y ago
      I lived in Dallas for 14 years. The only time I have ever seen a tornado live is when I was growing up in South Florida.
    - quicklime 6y ago
      For what it’s worth I’ve lived in downtown areas for the last 10 years and I’ve never seen rioters burn down anyone’s house or shop. I’ve never even seen a single rioter (I have seen many peaceful protests though).
  - throwaheyy 6y ago
    Where did rioters burn homes?
    - cpursley 6y ago
      https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2020/05/28/affordable-housing-minneapolis-burned-wellington.html https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2020/05/28/affor...
      - throwaheyy 6y ago
        That was a building under construction, it wasn’t anybody’s home.
  - xyzzyz 6y ago
    Unlike tornadoes, something can be done to avoid riots burning people houses.
    - Kye 6y ago
      Most riots seem to be sparked by counter-protestors (the police). They could do with more training in de-escalation instead of the "warrior" training too many of them get. Behind the Bastards did an episode on it. https://www.iheart.com/podcast/105-behind-the-bastards-29236323/episode/the-man-who-teaches-our-cops-63257870/ https://www.iheart.com/podcast/105-behind-the-bastards-29236...
  - vonmoltke 6y ago
    > Live in a city. Deal with city problems. [...] If you want to live in Florida don't be surprised if it's underwater. Are you suggesting Florida has no cities?
- departure 6y ago
  I think that's wishful thinking, St Louis was declining way before covid. I don't see a stop of migration happening anytime here in the Austin metro or any of the other major Texas cities. We may see it in HCOL places but I wouldn't count on people leaving Denver, Portland, the NC Triangle, and the similar 'B cities'
  - OldHand2018 6y ago
    > St Louis was declining way before covid 850,000 residents in 1950 and 300,000 now. You are right, Covid had nothing to do with it.
- seanmcdirmid 6y ago
  In Seattle it is really difficult to find decent houses to buy right now, buyers are panicking and prices have increased significantly in the last couple of months. My guess is that hot areas are getting hotter and colder areas are getting colder, but COVID hasn’t changed that trend yet.
  - itslennysfault 6y ago
    tbh I feel really bad for anyone that buys during this panic phase. We are almost certainly headed for the largest recession in US history, and I don't see a future where housing prices don't crash as a result. (I'm also in Seattle and waiting for that to happen before I buy)
    - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
      True I had the same concerns, but super low interest rates distort the picture. Also, while buying now is risky, you are likely to only lose one or two hundred K of value in a recession at most, and that will pop back over time, so long term buyers should be OK. Paid way too much recently for a townhouse in Ballard, but at the end of the day it seems like a pretty sound decision (we aren't buying for investing, but for living).
- gred 6y ago
  > We’ve had riots, inaction by mayors, and ridiculous decisions by leaders in large metro areas for the past month. Another factor that is (unexpectedly) making my family reconsider intown living is the school closure decisionmaking. If this turns out to be a 1 or 2 year ordeal, and urban school systems end up going full virtual for that time while (some) rural school systems are still fully face-to-face, then that becomes a huge factor for us.
nimbius 6y ago
i would suspect as much. Home prices have been, as they cyclically trend to do, wildly inflated and overheated for quite some time now. Most homes command a minimum of 250k no matter where you look, with many of them existing as mere flophouses converted for a few thousand dollars with the cheapest lumber yard fixtures in an offensive attempt to cash in on the puerile american practice of "flipping" properties. The market is sorely overdue for a massive "correction" to respect the near 40% unemployment in the US, widespread rioting, and crippling pandemic. Id put the counter at six months, but so far everything has defied the yield curve inversion and continued to run like a race car on nitrous. sooner or later somethings got to give.
- Loughla 6y ago
  I 100% agree with this. We built our home in 2009 for an even $100,000. I live 40 minutes from the nearest 'urban' center, and probably 20 minutes from the closest 'town' (less than 600 people). Now, granted, we put a massive amount of sweat equity into this home, but It's current appraisal sits at $275,000. That is just unbelievable. It's not realistic. It's completely removed from any sort of reality. I mean, we have a nice house, don't get me wrong, but it's not worth over a quarter of a million dollars. And that is every house within 20 miles of me. In the last two years our values have skyrocketed, and nobody knows why.
  - doitLP 6y ago
    > it's not worth over a quarter of a million dollars What is worth a quarter million? How do you assess the value of your home?
    - Loughla 6y ago
      The home was assessed at over a quarter of a million dollars, for both taxes this year, and by an independent assessor when we refinanced. I'm saying I have a decent home, but that amount of money is unrealistic. It cost $100,000 to build, 11 years ago. I cannot be convinced it almost tripled in value, in any realistic market, in 11 years.
nkohari 6y ago
> If the jobless rate and GDP continue to suffer I can’t see this being anything but bad for rural and suburban real estate. Why do you think it would impact rural and suburban properties specifically? It seems like a bad economy would depress city property values as well.
- dtnewman 6y ago
  I don't think that OP (or anyone else) thinks that urban prices won't be affected. He's just responding to the article that there's a rural and suburban boom.
  - nsl73 6y ago
    Confirming your interpretation of my original comment.
  - nkohari 6y ago
    Got it, thanks! I misread.

by nsl73 6y ago

Is this propaganda to help relax the home owning population? If the jobless rate and GDP continue to suffer I can’t see this being anything but bad for rural and suburban real estate.

NDizzle 6y ago

We’ve had riots, inaction by mayors, and ridiculous decisions by leaders in large metro areas for the past month. Nobody in their right mind is staying in cities, especially after the insane selective application of laws and ordinances the last 5-6 weeks. Who would buy a nice place in, for example, St. Louis right now?!

yhoneycomb 6y ago
> Nobody in their right mind is staying in cities You sound like a boomer who just wants confirmation bias. Everyone wants to live in cities. The protests were a great thing.
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
>We’ve had riots >Who would buy a nice place in, oh, for example St. Louis, right now?! People who want to live there regardless and see an opportunity to spend less money doing so. They're the same people who buy real-estate on the cheap after it's value has been depressed by a "fresh in people's minds" disaster in any other location. Live in a city. Deal with city problems. If you want to live in Nebraska don't be surprised if a tornado flattens your property. If you want to live in Florida don't be surprised if it's underwater. Having rioters burn your home to the ground is simply the mode of destruction you accept some risk of by living in a city. Personally I'd rather deal with nature trying to destroy my stuff rather than people trying to destroy my stuff but I can understand why people want to live in the city.
- justjash 6y ago
  Yeah, I don't think there are any issues with people moving to cities if they want to live there. Just because there are protests, etc. going on doesn't mean the entire city is on fire...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- unethical_ban 6y ago
  We shouldn't legitimize the mindset the parent is pushing, that riots have swept the nation. Protests swept the nation. Many cities had increased vandalism. A small number had anything approaching riots. I am renting a house very near the city center. Were it not for the home prices, I would love to own here... though another poster made a good point. All the good reasons to live in the city (night life, people watching, proximity to friends and services and hobbies) are closed down. At least I can walk to the grocery store.
  - DenisM 6y ago
    > legitimize the mindset the parent is pushing Is this phrase the same as "I disagree with the parent"?
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    > Many cities had increased vandalism You say that like it's a past event. Portland is still seeing riot activity. They have done a fair amount of damage downtown. I feel sad for the peaceful BLM protestors because much of the general public will not draw a distinction, so this kind of behavior will blunt their message.
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    You're misinterpreting my comment. Riots haven't swept the nation any more than a hurricane moving up the gulf coast "sweeps the nation". It's just that's the form of disaster that tends to strike cities and I don't think people should be acting like it's unexpected.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > live in Nebraska don't be surprised if a tornado flattens your property For what it's worth, the average person in Tornado alley will live their entire life without ever seeing an actual tornado, much less get flattened by one.
  - vonmoltke 6y ago
    I lived in Dallas for 14 years. The only time I have ever seen a tornado live is when I was growing up in South Florida.
  - quicklime 6y ago
    For what it’s worth I’ve lived in downtown areas for the last 10 years and I’ve never seen rioters burn down anyone’s house or shop. I’ve never even seen a single rioter (I have seen many peaceful protests though).
- throwaheyy 6y ago
  Where did rioters burn homes?
  - cpursley 6y ago
    https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2020/05/28/affordable-housing-minneapolis-burned-wellington.html https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2020/05/28/affor...
    - throwaheyy 6y ago
      That was a building under construction, it wasn’t anybody’s home.
- xyzzyz 6y ago
  Unlike tornadoes, something can be done to avoid riots burning people houses.
  - Kye 6y ago
    Most riots seem to be sparked by counter-protestors (the police). They could do with more training in de-escalation instead of the "warrior" training too many of them get. Behind the Bastards did an episode on it. https://www.iheart.com/podcast/105-behind-the-bastards-29236323/episode/the-man-who-teaches-our-cops-63257870/ https://www.iheart.com/podcast/105-behind-the-bastards-29236...
- vonmoltke 6y ago
  > Live in a city. Deal with city problems. [...] If you want to live in Florida don't be surprised if it's underwater. Are you suggesting Florida has no cities?
departure 6y ago
I think that's wishful thinking, St Louis was declining way before covid. I don't see a stop of migration happening anytime here in the Austin metro or any of the other major Texas cities. We may see it in HCOL places but I wouldn't count on people leaving Denver, Portland, the NC Triangle, and the similar 'B cities'
- OldHand2018 6y ago
  > St Louis was declining way before covid 850,000 residents in 1950 and 300,000 now. You are right, Covid had nothing to do with it.
seanmcdirmid 6y ago
In Seattle it is really difficult to find decent houses to buy right now, buyers are panicking and prices have increased significantly in the last couple of months. My guess is that hot areas are getting hotter and colder areas are getting colder, but COVID hasn’t changed that trend yet.
- itslennysfault 6y ago
  tbh I feel really bad for anyone that buys during this panic phase. We are almost certainly headed for the largest recession in US history, and I don't see a future where housing prices don't crash as a result. (I'm also in Seattle and waiting for that to happen before I buy)
  - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
    True I had the same concerns, but super low interest rates distort the picture. Also, while buying now is risky, you are likely to only lose one or two hundred K of value in a recession at most, and that will pop back over time, so long term buyers should be OK. Paid way too much recently for a townhouse in Ballard, but at the end of the day it seems like a pretty sound decision (we aren't buying for investing, but for living).
gred 6y ago
> We’ve had riots, inaction by mayors, and ridiculous decisions by leaders in large metro areas for the past month. Another factor that is (unexpectedly) making my family reconsider intown living is the school closure decisionmaking. If this turns out to be a 1 or 2 year ordeal, and urban school systems end up going full virtual for that time while (some) rural school systems are still fully face-to-face, then that becomes a huge factor for us.

nimbius 6y ago

i would suspect as much. Home prices have been, as they cyclically trend to do, wildly inflated and overheated for quite some time now. Most homes command a minimum of 250k no matter where you look, with many of them existing as mere flophouses converted for a few thousand dollars with the cheapest lumber yard fixtures in an offensive attempt to cash in on the puerile american practice of "flipping" properties. The market is sorely overdue for a massive "correction" to respect the near 40% unemployment in the US, widespread rioting, and crippling pandemic. Id put the counter at six months, but so far everything has defied the yield curve inversion and continued to run like a race car on nitrous. sooner or later somethings got to give.

Loughla 6y ago
I 100% agree with this. We built our home in 2009 for an even $100,000. I live 40 minutes from the nearest 'urban' center, and probably 20 minutes from the closest 'town' (less than 600 people). Now, granted, we put a massive amount of sweat equity into this home, but It's current appraisal sits at $275,000. That is just unbelievable. It's not realistic. It's completely removed from any sort of reality. I mean, we have a nice house, don't get me wrong, but it's not worth over a quarter of a million dollars. And that is every house within 20 miles of me. In the last two years our values have skyrocketed, and nobody knows why.
- doitLP 6y ago
  > it's not worth over a quarter of a million dollars What is worth a quarter million? How do you assess the value of your home?
  - Loughla 6y ago
    The home was assessed at over a quarter of a million dollars, for both taxes this year, and by an independent assessor when we refinanced. I'm saying I have a decent home, but that amount of money is unrealistic. It cost $100,000 to build, 11 years ago. I cannot be convinced it almost tripled in value, in any realistic market, in 11 years.

nkohari 6y ago

> If the jobless rate and GDP continue to suffer I can’t see this being anything but bad for rural and suburban real estate. Why do you think it would impact rural and suburban properties specifically? It seems like a bad economy would depress city property values as well.

dtnewman 6y ago
I don't think that OP (or anyone else) thinks that urban prices won't be affected. He's just responding to the article that there's a rural and suburban boom.
- nsl73 6y ago
  Confirming your interpretation of my original comment.
- nkohari 6y ago
  Got it, thanks! I misread.