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I see this news as a loss for the US. It has to resort to regulations to stop TSMC from doing business with Huawei. When you can't incentivize your ally, that m

I see this news as a loss for the US. It has to resort to regulations to stop TSMC from doing business with Huawei. When you can't incentivize your ally, that means your opponent's business is still very attractive. Regulations will only cripple your ally. Taiwan may comply on the outside. But inside, they'll cut under-the-table deals with China. They'll find loop holes to skirt regulations. Taiwan seems to be heading to be the next Hong Kong. Their political class is still publicly resistant. But their business leaders are slowly surrendering. At some point, the political class will follow. The US will then need to rely on the activism of the young renegade "colonels" like Joshua Wong. Crippling an ally can buy the US some time. But it is losing ground.

0xy 6y ago
The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. If they don't, they've already lost to China. Chip superiority is everything. If the US can't manufacture or source modern chips then it's over for them. US leaders and the military know this to be true. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US doesn't need Hong Kong. The US needs Taiwan.
- peteretep 6y ago
  > The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary Under a normal president, sure. Under this one, who can’t decide if he hates China or loves Xi? All fucking bets are off
  - magnusmagnusson 6y ago
    The previous Presidents of United States sold American manufacturing to China and you propose they would have been more willing to defend Taiwan in case of theoretical Chinese takeover? Delusional. Terminal brainrot from politics.
  - hajile 6y ago
    Public politics and policy are different. All negotiations with Xi the PERSON will get nowhere if you go around insulting and humiliate him publicly. Instead, you have intense private discussions and then smile for the camera and say polite exaggerations or lies. This is politics as usual under ANY administration. The results of those private discussions are shown in public actions against the COUNTRY for failing to act as desired. Trump says nice things about Xi while passing the most restrictive legislation against China that we've seen in decade. Make things against Xi personal and the chances of war skyrocket. His sensitivity and crackdowns about Winnie the Pooh jokes shows that Xi isn't exactly the most stable dictator where his public image is concerned. The fact that bills concerning China make it through both Democrat-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate (especially as they can't seem to agree on almost anything else) speak volumes as to the importance of what's going on.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    I find your lack of faith disturbing. [0] https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-aircraft-carriers-south-china-sea https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-aircraft-carriers-south...
- helixhelix 6y ago
  Texas instruments ARM CPU when?
- amelius 6y ago
  Or build more fabs in the US?
- supernova87a 6y ago
  You think the US is prepared to use nuclear weapons in a conflict involving Taiwan? Over semiconductor chips? (or are you using "nuclear option" in the rhetorical sense?) Or, given your next sentence says "if they don't..." I suppose you're only offering a non-expert sports-fan level of opinion. Well, my opinion is that the US government, and the US public, is unwilling and has been demonstrably unable to muster any kind of support for significant military force over any issue that is complex and intangible, for the last 15 years. Name one recent strategic issue aside from Iraq/Afghanistan that the US and allies haven't backed down from (involving military force)? If it doesn't involve weapons of mass destruction, an imminent danger, or American lives being threatened, our collective attention span doesn't care to cash in our chips. And unlike oil, semiconductors don't hit big conservative wallets and their motivations. I don't think America (in the popular sense) knows or cares what Taiwan is, to be honest. We can't even get our shit together to defend our supply of toilet paper and cloth masks. So I have strong doubts that a conflict over such a technical / intangible issue would rile up America's political will enough to convince people to go to war. And especially not with this administration's political skills.
  - ethbro 6y ago
    > semiconductors don't hit big conservative wallets and their motivations The military.
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 6y ago
    >the US public, is unwilling and has been demonstrably unable to muster any kind of support for significant military force over any issue that is complex and intangible Americans would be directly affected by a conflict. Where do all of these electronics come from?
    - thu2111 6y ago
      A lot come from US fabs! People here are talking like Intel fabs have all ceased to exist or something. They haven't. It's really Europe that needs to panic about China/Taiwan (where there are NO firms that can manufacture semiconductors at scale), but, they aren't of course.
- moeadham 6y ago
  Don’t forget about South Korea (Samsung)
- blackrock 6y ago
  > The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. Exactly what do you mean by “nuclear options” here?
- rstuart4133 6y ago
  > Chip superiority is everything. The Chinese didn't get to their current position via chip superiority. They got there by being a low cost producer of a whole pile of other things. Clearly chip superiority wasn't everything to them. In fact also by definition most countries don't have chip superiority. Not the UK (home of ARM), not Japan, not Germany, not Canada, not Australia (who happens to be a medical powerhouse). Yet they all have dynamic successful economies. It's a big world out there. Being master of one trade doesn't make you the master of them all.
  - 0xy 6y ago
    China has always had access to state of the art chips though, as has the UK, Japan, Germany etc. When I say chip superiority, I'm implying China will move to starve the US of modern chip fab capacity. That's huge. The US needs them for military, intelligence and productivity purposes.
- peacefulhat 6y ago
  Sure kill billions to save exclusive access to a foundry. It’s not worth it.
qlk1123 6y ago
That's why President Tsai Ing-Wen propose https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Southbound_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Southbound_Policy Hopefully such movements can reduce the business interests in Taiwan towards China in the long run, and establish multilateral-ism with many identities other than China. > Taiwan seems to be heading to be the next Hong Kong. Don't remember we have military forces and it happens to be Han-Kuang Military Exercise recently: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Kuang_Exercise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Kuang_Exercise
- LdSGSgvupDV 6y ago
  Nope. The new southbound policy won't succeed. You could see the report in the following link. [0] https://www.trade.gov.tw/english/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=92&pid=698561&dl_DateRange=all&txt_SD=&txt_ED=&txt_Keyword=&Pageid=0 https://www.trade.gov.tw/english/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=92...
dannyw 6y ago
America is offering generous deals to TSMC for building fabs in Arizona. Business leaders go for money.
totalZero 6y ago
TSMC is in a much shakier position than the US. It makes more sense for the US to bear the mantle given the geographic proximity and commercial entanglements between Taiwan and the USA. In practice I believe this action doesn't reduce the soft power of the USA -- everyone knows the immense sway that US demand has on Taiwanese foundry companies.

0xy 6y ago

The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. If they don't, they've already lost to China. Chip superiority is everything. If the US can't manufacture or source modern chips then it's over for them. US leaders and the military know this to be true. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US doesn't need Hong Kong. The US needs Taiwan.

peteretep 6y ago
> The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary Under a normal president, sure. Under this one, who can’t decide if he hates China or loves Xi? All fucking bets are off
- magnusmagnusson 6y ago
  The previous Presidents of United States sold American manufacturing to China and you propose they would have been more willing to defend Taiwan in case of theoretical Chinese takeover? Delusional. Terminal brainrot from politics.
- hajile 6y ago
  Public politics and policy are different. All negotiations with Xi the PERSON will get nowhere if you go around insulting and humiliate him publicly. Instead, you have intense private discussions and then smile for the camera and say polite exaggerations or lies. This is politics as usual under ANY administration. The results of those private discussions are shown in public actions against the COUNTRY for failing to act as desired. Trump says nice things about Xi while passing the most restrictive legislation against China that we've seen in decade. Make things against Xi personal and the chances of war skyrocket. His sensitivity and crackdowns about Winnie the Pooh jokes shows that Xi isn't exactly the most stable dictator where his public image is concerned. The fact that bills concerning China make it through both Democrat-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate (especially as they can't seem to agree on almost anything else) speak volumes as to the importance of what's going on.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  I find your lack of faith disturbing. [0] https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-aircraft-carriers-south-china-sea https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-aircraft-carriers-south...
helixhelix 6y ago
Texas instruments ARM CPU when?
amelius 6y ago
Or build more fabs in the US?
supernova87a 6y ago
You think the US is prepared to use nuclear weapons in a conflict involving Taiwan? Over semiconductor chips? (or are you using "nuclear option" in the rhetorical sense?) Or, given your next sentence says "if they don't..." I suppose you're only offering a non-expert sports-fan level of opinion. Well, my opinion is that the US government, and the US public, is unwilling and has been demonstrably unable to muster any kind of support for significant military force over any issue that is complex and intangible, for the last 15 years. Name one recent strategic issue aside from Iraq/Afghanistan that the US and allies haven't backed down from (involving military force)? If it doesn't involve weapons of mass destruction, an imminent danger, or American lives being threatened, our collective attention span doesn't care to cash in our chips. And unlike oil, semiconductors don't hit big conservative wallets and their motivations. I don't think America (in the popular sense) knows or cares what Taiwan is, to be honest. We can't even get our shit together to defend our supply of toilet paper and cloth masks. So I have strong doubts that a conflict over such a technical / intangible issue would rile up America's political will enough to convince people to go to war. And especially not with this administration's political skills.
- ethbro 6y ago
  > semiconductors don't hit big conservative wallets and their motivations The military.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 6y ago
  >the US public, is unwilling and has been demonstrably unable to muster any kind of support for significant military force over any issue that is complex and intangible Americans would be directly affected by a conflict. Where do all of these electronics come from?
  - thu2111 6y ago
    A lot come from US fabs! People here are talking like Intel fabs have all ceased to exist or something. They haven't. It's really Europe that needs to panic about China/Taiwan (where there are NO firms that can manufacture semiconductors at scale), but, they aren't of course.
moeadham 6y ago
Don’t forget about South Korea (Samsung)
blackrock 6y ago
> The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. Exactly what do you mean by “nuclear options” here?
rstuart4133 6y ago
> Chip superiority is everything. The Chinese didn't get to their current position via chip superiority. They got there by being a low cost producer of a whole pile of other things. Clearly chip superiority wasn't everything to them. In fact also by definition most countries don't have chip superiority. Not the UK (home of ARM), not Japan, not Germany, not Canada, not Australia (who happens to be a medical powerhouse). Yet they all have dynamic successful economies. It's a big world out there. Being master of one trade doesn't make you the master of them all.
- 0xy 6y ago
  China has always had access to state of the art chips though, as has the UK, Japan, Germany etc. When I say chip superiority, I'm implying China will move to starve the US of modern chip fab capacity. That's huge. The US needs them for military, intelligence and productivity purposes.
peacefulhat 6y ago
Sure kill billions to save exclusive access to a foundry. It’s not worth it.

qlk1123 6y ago

That's why President Tsai Ing-Wen propose https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Southbound_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Southbound_Policy Hopefully such movements can reduce the business interests in Taiwan towards China in the long run, and establish multilateral-ism with many identities other than China. > Taiwan seems to be heading to be the next Hong Kong. Don't remember we have military forces and it happens to be Han-Kuang Military Exercise recently: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Kuang_Exercise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Kuang_Exercise

LdSGSgvupDV 6y ago
Nope. The new southbound policy won't succeed. You could see the report in the following link. [0] https://www.trade.gov.tw/english/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=92&pid=698561&dl_DateRange=all&txt_SD=&txt_ED=&txt_Keyword=&Pageid=0 https://www.trade.gov.tw/english/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=92...

dannyw 6y ago

America is offering generous deals to TSMC for building fabs in Arizona. Business leaders go for money.

totalZero 6y ago

TSMC is in a much shakier position than the US. It makes more sense for the US to bear the mantle given the geographic proximity and commercial entanglements between Taiwan and the USA. In practice I believe this action doesn't reduce the soft power of the USA -- everyone knows the immense sway that US demand has on Taiwanese foundry companies.