5 ms·

We do seem to be in a secular upswing in semiconductor demand, while TSMC remains the last foundry standing at the 7nm node. It seems like Samsung and Intel alt

by kurthr 6y ago

We do seem to be in a secular upswing in semiconductor demand, while TSMC remains the last foundry standing at the 7nm node. It seems like Samsung and Intel alternatives are bit too captive (internally competitive) for a large mobile phone producer. I don't think it's about actual 5G chips themselves, it's about ARM processors and mobile SoCs. It's doubtful to me that UMC and Global Foundries will catch up, but I do wonder at the long term effects. There are many billions of Yuan to spend on solving this problem. In the past they could get enough of the right people to move to China as they did with OLED.

trevyn 6y ago
But you see, money can’t buy love.
mytailorisrich 6y ago
> In the past they could get enough of the right people to move to China as they did with OLED. TSMC was founded by a "returnee" as well. Obviously he and his family were rather anti-communist (his father was a ROC official) so he fled from mainland China to Hongkong then the US during the Chinese Civil War. He built a career at TI then returned to China (Taiwan) and founded TSMC when the government was investing in the development of hitech industries. [1] There are quite a few similar examples on both sides (communists and nationalists). For example, and that's quite a twist of history, the 'father' of the PRC missile and space program was an MIT professor, Caltech professor, co-founder of JPL and was even involved in project Manhattan... Then he returned to mainland China in 1955 [2]. These days there are many more mainland Chinese in the West and Taiwan who work in the semiconductor industry and it's not uncommon for them to return to mainland China to take key positions. There is no doubt that they'll catch up. The only question is how fast. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_Chang https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_Chang [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qian_Xuesen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qian_Xuesen
- knzhou 6y ago
  > Then he returned to mainland China in 1955. It's worth remembering that he did that because he was pushed out, during the Red Scare.
  - dragonelite 6y ago
    You already see the same happening under the Yellow peril banner.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    Qian Xuesen was stripped of his security clearance in 1950, as a result of the Red Scare, meaning he couldn't work on his areas of expertise any more. He tried to leave the US, but was arrested on his way out and kept under house arrest for 5 years. That's the thanks he got for helping found the US rocketry program, so when he was released, he founded China's rocketry program.
ttul 6y ago
The next shoe to drop will be if ASML cuts off Chinese chipmakers. ASML absolutely dominates fab tech.
- xxpor 6y ago
  Or the Dutch government bows to pressure from the US and makes the decision for them.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    They already have. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-sources-idUSKBN1Z50HN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-in...
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    Or maybe they did it by themselves because they are capable of independent decision making. Just the other day someone here was loudly proclaiming we shouldn't be interested in US politics from overseas because it doesn't affect us. HN should make up its mind about this in a well reasoned way.
- caycep 6y ago
  That's what I am wondering about. Is ASML the weak point? Would a US, Taiwan, or other company be able to develop and manufacture comparable lithography or EUV machines, or do they essentially have a chokehold on the market for now?
  - ttul 6y ago
    You can't fast-track the technology developed by ASML. We're talking about a company with 4,000 engineers (correct me if I'm wrong btw) who have been working on lithography magic for decades. EUV took decades of dedicated research to finally become a reality just in the past few years. They literally vaporize tin into a plasma in order to create the EUV light, which then has to pass through incredibly complex optics on its way to the mask. 97% of the light is lost on its way to the target... This thing consumes megawatts. It's literally magic.

by kurthr 6y ago

trevyn 6y ago

But you see, money can’t buy love.

mytailorisrich 6y ago

> In the past they could get enough of the right people to move to China as they did with OLED. TSMC was founded by a "returnee" as well. Obviously he and his family were rather anti-communist (his father was a ROC official) so he fled from mainland China to Hongkong then the US during the Chinese Civil War. He built a career at TI then returned to China (Taiwan) and founded TSMC when the government was investing in the development of hitech industries. [1] There are quite a few similar examples on both sides (communists and nationalists). For example, and that's quite a twist of history, the 'father' of the PRC missile and space program was an MIT professor, Caltech professor, co-founder of JPL and was even involved in project Manhattan... Then he returned to mainland China in 1955 [2]. These days there are many more mainland Chinese in the West and Taiwan who work in the semiconductor industry and it's not uncommon for them to return to mainland China to take key positions. There is no doubt that they'll catch up. The only question is how fast. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_Chang https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_Chang [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qian_Xuesen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qian_Xuesen

knzhou 6y ago
> Then he returned to mainland China in 1955. It's worth remembering that he did that because he was pushed out, during the Red Scare.
- dragonelite 6y ago
  You already see the same happening under the Yellow peril banner.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  Qian Xuesen was stripped of his security clearance in 1950, as a result of the Red Scare, meaning he couldn't work on his areas of expertise any more. He tried to leave the US, but was arrested on his way out and kept under house arrest for 5 years. That's the thanks he got for helping found the US rocketry program, so when he was released, he founded China's rocketry program.

ttul 6y ago

The next shoe to drop will be if ASML cuts off Chinese chipmakers. ASML absolutely dominates fab tech.

xxpor 6y ago
Or the Dutch government bows to pressure from the US and makes the decision for them.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  They already have. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-sources-idUSKBN1Z50HN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-in...
- jacquesm 6y ago
  Or maybe they did it by themselves because they are capable of independent decision making. Just the other day someone here was loudly proclaiming we shouldn't be interested in US politics from overseas because it doesn't affect us. HN should make up its mind about this in a well reasoned way.
caycep 6y ago
That's what I am wondering about. Is ASML the weak point? Would a US, Taiwan, or other company be able to develop and manufacture comparable lithography or EUV machines, or do they essentially have a chokehold on the market for now?
- ttul 6y ago
  You can't fast-track the technology developed by ASML. We're talking about a company with 4,000 engineers (correct me if I'm wrong btw) who have been working on lithography magic for decades. EUV took decades of dedicated research to finally become a reality just in the past few years. They literally vaporize tin into a plasma in order to create the EUV light, which then has to pass through incredibly complex optics on its way to the mask. 97% of the light is lost on its way to the target... This thing consumes megawatts. It's literally magic.