10 ms·

Voting misinformation flourishes on Facebook

153 points by hhs 6y ago

endtime 6y ago
These are all predictions about the future, so of course they don't have concrete evidence. Holding them to that standard so they can be declared "false" or "misinformation" is a rhetorical trick. It's pretty hard for anyone to be objective about any political issue, but for what it's worth I vote third party, so my opinion about this is as non-partisan as I think it can be. That disclaimer made, from a purely engineering perspective, mail-in voting doesn't seem very secure. The 2016 election was pretty close; it wouldn't take that many mistakes or deliberate malicious acts to sway the outcome, especially with no clear chain of custody over people's ballots.
- winkeltripel 6y ago
  So, When compared to paper ballots, I believe that your statements are true. Many states use electronic voting machines. These run unverified code, without verifiable paper receipts (IE a public database of all the votes + receipt numbers, against which individuals may check their votes, and from which the official tally is calculated). This also has no chain of custody. I would choose mail-in ballots over electronic vote systems every time.
- BGZq7 6y ago
  It's one thing to say that mail in voting could potentially have security issues. It's another to say that Democrats plan to light ballots on fire. In order to legitimately claim that with any certainty they would need actual proof of someone developing a plan or expressing an interest in doing so. They clearly don't have that. Maybe "false" or "misinformation" are not accurate enough terms but I think "unsubstantiated fear-mongering" is fair and would have the same effect.
  - mynameishere 6y ago
    That is a metaphor. I guess people should not use colorful language when others might jump to any criticism.
  - Joeri 6y ago
    The specific claim was that barack obama for certain would light ballots on fire. Accusing a specific individual in the public sphere of definitely intending to commit a crime sounds like it matches the legal definition of libel to me.
- shuntress 6y ago
  The concrete evidence comes from the past, not from the future. From a purely engineering perspective, the fact is that it works and works well. The simple solution of stating your name + address (or receiving a ballot addressed to you by mail) then having your name checked off the list when you return the ballot is friction-less, robust, and extremely difficult to attack at scale. Over-engineering the system's security would most likely do more harm than good.
- raxxorrax 6y ago
  Not from the US, I think mail in voting can be secure, but I would not recommend starting this election for the reasons you mentioned and people need to believe voting isn't manipulated. I know the US elections are pretty people centric, even though you are not allowed to vote the president directly. But if anyone could come up with an honest assessment of the problems the US is facing and offer some solutions or strategies, I think the chances to win are very high. You would have to beat building a wall towards Mexico. Trumpers need to make peace with lefties and vice versa. Nobody will win otherwise anyway. I believe Biden will win the presidential election though. Not by merit perhaps, but because of demographic and inclination of voters. If I recall the work of Democrats the last election cycle I see questionable FISA abuse and lying about Russia as the primary "achievements". I think there is room to do better. What do I see when I look at Trump? I don't think he takes his presidency that seriously. He didn't kill minorities as some said he would.
  - triceratops 6y ago
    > even though you are not allowed to vote the president directly Yeah, you are. > He didn't kill minorities Covid kills minorities at a far higher rate than the general population. His incompetence in handling the epidemic has killed minorities (it's killed a lot of people, but disproportionately minorities).[1] 1. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/30/865413079/what-do-coronavirus-racial-disparities-look-like-state-by-state https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/30/8654130...
- ipnon 6y ago
  >A recent Washington Post analysis analyzed three states with all-mail elections — Colorado, Oregon and Washington — and found just 372 potential irregularities among 14.6 million votes, or 0.0025%.[0] They seem insecure, but they are not insecure. That is the problem. The perception that public elections are vulnerable to massive voter fraud is what drives these conspiracy theories, not the reality. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minuscule-number-of-potentially-fraudulent-ballots-in-states-with-universal-mail-voting-undercuts-trump-claims-about-election-risks/2020/06/08/1e78aa26-a5c5-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minuscule-number-of-...
  - ses1984 6y ago
    Just because mail in ballots haven't been attacked doesn't mean they can't or won't. I'm all for more mail in ballots, just saying.
    - ipnon 6y ago
      I would say the prevailing evidence suggests we can continue using them confidently, and the prevailing sentiment suggests we should begin to introduce measures that increase public trust in the validity of voting by mail and our elections in general.
      - ses1984 6y ago
        I think we can have both. Let's promote mail in voting while trying to come up with ways to secure it that doesn't disenfranchise people.
  - creddit 6y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Carolina%27s_9th_congressional_district_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Carolina%27s_9th_co...
    - ipnon 6y ago
      This is a great example of how voting by mail needs to be made even more secure so that all voters trust that elections are valid.
- baddox 6y ago
  There’s nothing special about “predictions about the future” that means they are incapable of being false or misleading. In fact, our legal system already handles cases like this. For example, fraudulent investment schemes are little more than predictions of what will happen in the future, yet those predictions are prosecuted as being fraudulent.
50ckpuppet 6y ago
So what. This isn't a Facebook problem. It's an education and gullibility problem. There should be a class in the every high schools history department the explains propaganda and gossip.
- HumblyTossed 6y ago
  > There should be a class in the every high schools history department the explains propaganda and gossip. It wouldn't help. Facebook and other social media outlets are geared to giving you more of what you click. Happen to click a few far Z-Wing posts? You'll get more. Once a pattern develops they feed you what you click most so that you'll stay engaged. No amount of high schooling will prepare people for that. The _only_ way to fight it is to actively disengage.
  - goatinaboat 6y ago
    The insidious thing is: if you post a rebuttal to some assertion, all Facebook sees is that you engaged with that content. So it will show you more and more. You will become exhausted with the arguments and when your guard is down: ads
- fluffernutter 6y ago
  > This isn't a Facebook problem This is most certainly a problem Facebook created, however. Blaming the public for "not knowing how to use nukes better" while still building and cramming nukes in their inboxes is just ridiculous and it's time for this charade to end.
- drapery 6y ago
  Why is it that people default to a class in highschool as the solution to our societal problems? Poor financial literacy = HS tax class Misinformation on social media = HS propaganda class Teens can't deal with their emotions = HS yoga class Also we read Animal Farm and we talked about propaganda in history classes. Another class just for Facebook is not the solution.
- triceratops 6y ago
salimmadjd 6y ago
I’m becoming weary of all these Facebook scare tactics. This types of misinformation has been on Fox and the rest of cable networks. Not to mention radio talk shows of the past 20-30 years. IMHO, additionally this kind of data investigation needs someone with a good data science background. Otherwise all we're doing is using very limited observable dataset to make bold statements, which ironically what is happening with scaring public about voting by mail. The author of this article is some former pentagon and possibly a military spook and not a data scientist https://projects.propublica.org/trump-town/staffers/ryan-mccarthy https://projects.propublica.org/trump-town/staffers/ryan-mcc...
- fluffernutter 6y ago
  > The author of this article is some former pentagon and possibly a military spook This is literally a strawman argument. > this kind of data investigation needs someone with a good data science background. Otherwise all we're doing is using very limited observable dataset to make bold statements Some of the research mentioned was funded by: > The Newton and Rochelle Becker Charitable Trust > Craig Newmark Philanthropies > Democracy Fund > Facebook Journalism Project > Ford Foundation > Google News Initiative > John S. and James L. Knight Foundation > Open Society Foundations > Bernard and Anne Spitzer Charitable Trust
  - rfrey 6y ago
    Do you mean literally an ad hominem argument? /pedant
- hedora 6y ago
  Do you know of a news agency with a better record with data science? Propublica is the gold standard in this space as far as I know. (538 is a close second in my book, but they’re narrowly focused on politics and sports). I suggest browsing their homepage to see what I mean. Well over fifty percent of the stories are backed by datasets they gathered themselves, and a good chunk of the remaining ones are about problems with lack of government transparency that directly impacted them: https://www.propublica.org/ https://www.propublica.org/ If you are a data scientist, you might be interested in other data sets they curate. These are mostly useful for social scientists, journalists and policy makers: https://www.propublica.org/datastore/ https://www.propublica.org/datastore/ Disclaimer: I’ve donated to them in the past.
zackees 6y ago
1 in 5 Ballots Rejected as Fraud Is Charged in N.J. Mail-In Election: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/06/26/1_in_5_ballots_rejected_as_fraud_is_charged_in_nj_mail-in_election_143551.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/06/26/1_in_5... Many other stories like this. What's alarming is that the democrats tried to push through a bill that eliminated the state laws for voter integrity for all mail in ballots across states: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/12/democrats-coronavirus-bill-would-eliminate-states-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/12/democrats-c... So if this has become law, what would have stopped China from printing a bunch of ballots and sending in them? Nothing. The media told us that mail in ballot fraud was non existent. Then when the cases started to reveal this was a false narrative, the media moved the goal posts and said "oh it happens, but only happens by republicans." It's just an ever changing set of goal posts. It's very clear for those of us paying attention that mail in ballot fraud is the MAIN vector of voter fraud now. Those that proclaim this doesn't exist are naive or willfully deceptive. The idea that you can vote without an ID is really unprecedented in the whole world. The united states is special in that it allows it at all. But this is quickly changing. Tick Tock.
- DarkWiiPlayer 6y ago
  I just hope digital voting becomes a thing soon enough. Yes there are still some unsolved problems, but I don't think they're unsolvable. Cryptography is a thing.
- EarthMephit 6y ago
  We recently had a successful voluntary postal ballot on gay marriage here in Australia No reports of fraud that I know of - A handful of people trying to steal ballots, but they were just invalidated and sent out again
- coolgeek 6y ago
  So here's the thing - thousands of Republicans and conservatives have made claims of widespread vote/voter fraud. I'm not aware of a single claim that withstood scrutiny or that was even attempted to prosecute, let alone done so successfully. I'm not talking about isolated instances. That certainly has happened. I'm talking enough fraud to actually change an election. And I'm going to restrict you to the state or federal level, as I wouldn't be surprised that it happens at the local/county level in some hick outposts. So what do ya got? Show me an election that was actually affected by widespread fraud.

153 points by hhs 6y ago

These are all predictions about the future, so of course they don't have concrete evidence. Holding them to that standard so they can be declared "false" or "misinformation" is a rhetorical trick. It's pretty hard for anyone to be objective about any political issue, but for what it's worth I vote third party, so my opinion about this is as non-partisan as I think it can be. That disclaimer made, from a purely engineering perspective, mail-in voting doesn't seem very secure. The 2016 election was pretty close; it wouldn't take that many mistakes or deliberate malicious acts to sway the outcome, especially with no clear chain of custody over people's ballots.

winkeltripel 6y ago
So, When compared to paper ballots, I believe that your statements are true. Many states use electronic voting machines. These run unverified code, without verifiable paper receipts (IE a public database of all the votes + receipt numbers, against which individuals may check their votes, and from which the official tally is calculated). This also has no chain of custody. I would choose mail-in ballots over electronic vote systems every time.
BGZq7 6y ago
It's one thing to say that mail in voting could potentially have security issues. It's another to say that Democrats plan to light ballots on fire. In order to legitimately claim that with any certainty they would need actual proof of someone developing a plan or expressing an interest in doing so. They clearly don't have that. Maybe "false" or "misinformation" are not accurate enough terms but I think "unsubstantiated fear-mongering" is fair and would have the same effect.
- mynameishere 6y ago
  That is a metaphor. I guess people should not use colorful language when others might jump to any criticism.
- Joeri 6y ago
  The specific claim was that barack obama for certain would light ballots on fire. Accusing a specific individual in the public sphere of definitely intending to commit a crime sounds like it matches the legal definition of libel to me.
shuntress 6y ago
The concrete evidence comes from the past, not from the future. From a purely engineering perspective, the fact is that it works and works well. The simple solution of stating your name + address (or receiving a ballot addressed to you by mail) then having your name checked off the list when you return the ballot is friction-less, robust, and extremely difficult to attack at scale. Over-engineering the system's security would most likely do more harm than good.
raxxorrax 6y ago
Not from the US, I think mail in voting can be secure, but I would not recommend starting this election for the reasons you mentioned and people need to believe voting isn't manipulated. I know the US elections are pretty people centric, even though you are not allowed to vote the president directly. But if anyone could come up with an honest assessment of the problems the US is facing and offer some solutions or strategies, I think the chances to win are very high. You would have to beat building a wall towards Mexico. Trumpers need to make peace with lefties and vice versa. Nobody will win otherwise anyway. I believe Biden will win the presidential election though. Not by merit perhaps, but because of demographic and inclination of voters. If I recall the work of Democrats the last election cycle I see questionable FISA abuse and lying about Russia as the primary "achievements". I think there is room to do better. What do I see when I look at Trump? I don't think he takes his presidency that seriously. He didn't kill minorities as some said he would.
- triceratops 6y ago
  > even though you are not allowed to vote the president directly Yeah, you are. > He didn't kill minorities Covid kills minorities at a far higher rate than the general population. His incompetence in handling the epidemic has killed minorities (it's killed a lot of people, but disproportionately minorities).[1] 1. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/30/865413079/what-do-coronavirus-racial-disparities-look-like-state-by-state https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/30/8654130...
ipnon 6y ago
>A recent Washington Post analysis analyzed three states with all-mail elections — Colorado, Oregon and Washington — and found just 372 potential irregularities among 14.6 million votes, or 0.0025%.[0] They seem insecure, but they are not insecure. That is the problem. The perception that public elections are vulnerable to massive voter fraud is what drives these conspiracy theories, not the reality. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minuscule-number-of-potentially-fraudulent-ballots-in-states-with-universal-mail-voting-undercuts-trump-claims-about-election-risks/2020/06/08/1e78aa26-a5c5-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minuscule-number-of-...
- ses1984 6y ago
  Just because mail in ballots haven't been attacked doesn't mean they can't or won't. I'm all for more mail in ballots, just saying.
  - ipnon 6y ago
    I would say the prevailing evidence suggests we can continue using them confidently, and the prevailing sentiment suggests we should begin to introduce measures that increase public trust in the validity of voting by mail and our elections in general.
    - ses1984 6y ago
      I think we can have both. Let's promote mail in voting while trying to come up with ways to secure it that doesn't disenfranchise people.
- creddit 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Carolina%27s_9th_congressional_district_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Carolina%27s_9th_co...
  - ipnon 6y ago
    This is a great example of how voting by mail needs to be made even more secure so that all voters trust that elections are valid.
baddox 6y ago
There’s nothing special about “predictions about the future” that means they are incapable of being false or misleading. In fact, our legal system already handles cases like this. For example, fraudulent investment schemes are little more than predictions of what will happen in the future, yet those predictions are prosecuted as being fraudulent.

50ckpuppet 6y ago

So what. This isn't a Facebook problem. It's an education and gullibility problem. There should be a class in the every high schools history department the explains propaganda and gossip.

HumblyTossed 6y ago
> There should be a class in the every high schools history department the explains propaganda and gossip. It wouldn't help. Facebook and other social media outlets are geared to giving you more of what you click. Happen to click a few far Z-Wing posts? You'll get more. Once a pattern develops they feed you what you click most so that you'll stay engaged. No amount of high schooling will prepare people for that. The _only_ way to fight it is to actively disengage.
- goatinaboat 6y ago
  The insidious thing is: if you post a rebuttal to some assertion, all Facebook sees is that you engaged with that content. So it will show you more and more. You will become exhausted with the arguments and when your guard is down: ads
fluffernutter 6y ago
> This isn't a Facebook problem This is most certainly a problem Facebook created, however. Blaming the public for "not knowing how to use nukes better" while still building and cramming nukes in their inboxes is just ridiculous and it's time for this charade to end.
drapery 6y ago
Why is it that people default to a class in highschool as the solution to our societal problems? Poor financial literacy = HS tax class Misinformation on social media = HS propaganda class Teens can't deal with their emotions = HS yoga class Also we read Animal Farm and we talked about propaganda in history classes. Another class just for Facebook is not the solution.
triceratops 6y ago

salimmadjd 6y ago

I’m becoming weary of all these Facebook scare tactics. This types of misinformation has been on Fox and the rest of cable networks. Not to mention radio talk shows of the past 20-30 years. IMHO, additionally this kind of data investigation needs someone with a good data science background. Otherwise all we're doing is using very limited observable dataset to make bold statements, which ironically what is happening with scaring public about voting by mail. The author of this article is some former pentagon and possibly a military spook and not a data scientist https://projects.propublica.org/trump-town/staffers/ryan-mccarthy https://projects.propublica.org/trump-town/staffers/ryan-mcc...

fluffernutter 6y ago
> The author of this article is some former pentagon and possibly a military spook This is literally a strawman argument. > this kind of data investigation needs someone with a good data science background. Otherwise all we're doing is using very limited observable dataset to make bold statements Some of the research mentioned was funded by: > The Newton and Rochelle Becker Charitable Trust > Craig Newmark Philanthropies > Democracy Fund > Facebook Journalism Project > Ford Foundation > Google News Initiative > John S. and James L. Knight Foundation > Open Society Foundations > Bernard and Anne Spitzer Charitable Trust
- rfrey 6y ago
  Do you mean literally an ad hominem argument? /pedant
hedora 6y ago
Do you know of a news agency with a better record with data science? Propublica is the gold standard in this space as far as I know. (538 is a close second in my book, but they’re narrowly focused on politics and sports). I suggest browsing their homepage to see what I mean. Well over fifty percent of the stories are backed by datasets they gathered themselves, and a good chunk of the remaining ones are about problems with lack of government transparency that directly impacted them: https://www.propublica.org/ https://www.propublica.org/ If you are a data scientist, you might be interested in other data sets they curate. These are mostly useful for social scientists, journalists and policy makers: https://www.propublica.org/datastore/ https://www.propublica.org/datastore/ Disclaimer: I’ve donated to them in the past.

zackees 6y ago

1 in 5 Ballots Rejected as Fraud Is Charged in N.J. Mail-In Election: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/06/26/1_in_5_ballots_rejected_as_fraud_is_charged_in_nj_mail-in_election_143551.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/06/26/1_in_5... Many other stories like this. What's alarming is that the democrats tried to push through a bill that eliminated the state laws for voter integrity for all mail in ballots across states: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/12/democrats-coronavirus-bill-would-eliminate-states-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/12/democrats-c... So if this has become law, what would have stopped China from printing a bunch of ballots and sending in them? Nothing. The media told us that mail in ballot fraud was non existent. Then when the cases started to reveal this was a false narrative, the media moved the goal posts and said "oh it happens, but only happens by republicans." It's just an ever changing set of goal posts. It's very clear for those of us paying attention that mail in ballot fraud is the MAIN vector of voter fraud now. Those that proclaim this doesn't exist are naive or willfully deceptive. The idea that you can vote without an ID is really unprecedented in the whole world. The united states is special in that it allows it at all. But this is quickly changing. Tick Tock.

DarkWiiPlayer 6y ago
I just hope digital voting becomes a thing soon enough. Yes there are still some unsolved problems, but I don't think they're unsolvable. Cryptography is a thing.
EarthMephit 6y ago
We recently had a successful voluntary postal ballot on gay marriage here in Australia No reports of fraud that I know of - A handful of people trying to steal ballots, but they were just invalidated and sent out again
coolgeek 6y ago
So here's the thing - thousands of Republicans and conservatives have made claims of widespread vote/voter fraud. I'm not aware of a single claim that withstood scrutiny or that was even attempted to prosecute, let alone done so successfully. I'm not talking about isolated instances. That certainly has happened. I'm talking enough fraud to actually change an election. And I'm going to restrict you to the state or federal level, as I wouldn't be surprised that it happens at the local/county level in some hick outposts. So what do ya got? Show me an election that was actually affected by widespread fraud.