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Tesla is one part car company, one part battery company, and 5 parts marketing hype. The only reason people are seriously contemplating buying full electric car

Tesla is one part car company, one part battery company, and 5 parts marketing hype. The only reason people are seriously contemplating buying full electric cars today instead of the bullshit BMW produced is because Iron Man convinced enough people that electric cars will simultaneously fly to mars and cure world hunger. The stock reflects this. In other words, there is no Tesla without Elon's meme machine. The graveyard of failed EV startups was chockful of more well meaning participants before Tesla came along. I'd go as far as to argue that the Elon's bullshit was the only thing that could stand up to big oil.

typon 6y ago
Are you saying people see Musk as a necessary "evil" to fight off a bigger evil (in the form of oil companies) and so they forgive his misgivings in a sort of utilitarian calculus?
- nemothekid 6y ago
  No. I'm saying Tesla is successful because of Elon's hype. They are not "forgiving" his misgivings, they fully believe Elon will solve world hunger and invent FTL space travel. If you ask anyone who's bought into Tesla, they will tell you the "Auto Pilot on airplanes" lie, but they also believe Elon will deliver on Level 5 Autonomous driving. No cares about electric cars, they care about the guy's company who is using electric cars as a platform to save the world.
  - vvanders 6y ago
    Remove autopilot from a Model S and it's still a hell of a car. Just from a pure driving dynamics a mechanical engine can't touch a VFD in terms of power dynamics and range(which is also why Diesel-Electric locomotives use them). Don't disagree on the autopilot, the killer app has always been for me stop-and-go traffic where the speeds are lower and the sensors need to do less vision and more radar based.
    - karolist 6y ago
      Diesel-Electric locomotives do it that way because there's no clutch mechanism that would sustain the load being put on it, they have to use the magnetism for load coupling.
    - AgloeDreams 6y ago
      Short of range issues, you should drive a Taycan to see just how much better it can get. The Car lacks the infotainment tech of Tesla, the network, and the autopilot tech but from a driving dynamics and quality standpoint makes the Model S feel poor.
  - Dylan16807 6y ago
    What's the autopilot on airplanes lie? If you said "misdirection" or something, I would fully understand. But what's untrue about saying that plane autopilot is pretty limited?
    - Symbiote 6y ago
      The man on the Clapham omnibus [1] thinks aeroplane autopilot pretty much flies the plane, with the pilot just watching. That's what is relevant to Tesla's marketing material, and they are surely fully aware of this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_man_on_the_Clapham_omnibus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_man_on_the_Clapham_omnibus
    - dmoy 6y ago
      It's not telling the whole truth, because the average person doesn't fly planes and has no firm grasp on how extensive a plane's autopilot is, or what the difference in situations is. What they do see is the Tesla marketing videos that hype it up to be better than it actually is. It's lying by omission.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - Dylan16807 6y ago
        On Tesla's part, it's lying by omission. In the context of someone using airplane autopilot as a defense of Tesla, they're not omitting anything. So I don't think that's a full answer to my question.
  - Robotbeat 6y ago
    I want to address this because in spite of Elon (whether punching down with Twitter or COVIDiocy, etc) burning up a lot of the goodwill he had accumulated in the past, these things remain: The reason people think Elon may do level 5 autonomy is because his companies have accomplished several things that industry experts said were either infeasible or impossible. Fast charging, large-battery electric cars that are faster than almost all conventional cars. Remember, pre-Tesla, electric cars were looked at as pathetic toys, like golf carts or, AT BEST, green bling like Priuses which are pretty slow and kinda ugly. And not only has Tesla ramped up to mass production of these desirable vehicles, but they’ve also done it during the ending of EV credits (which almost all their competitors still have access to!) AND crazy low gas prices. And every time, the media plays up this or that “Tesla killer” that never ends up living up to the name and often completely tanks. Every time media or experts say Tesla will fail and they don’t reinforces the view in many that Tesla is somehow special. And even SpaceX’s early successes like Falcon 1, Falcon 9, and Dragon Cargo were unprecedented for a private company and at those extremely low costs (at the time, Aerospace was a money pit for cost-inflating defense contractors, not nimble rocket startups). Then when they proposed propulsive landing, some NASA experts in the field thought it’d fail. I know one NASA GNC guy who said droneship landing is impossible. Clearly not, as we see now that it’s routine! Then Falcon Heavy, And now Dragon Crew... beating out Boeing, who had long been favored by old guard experts to beat SpaceX to ISS. Similar experts were certain SpaceX would be beat by OneWeb to launching the initial constellation... and we know how that has turns out (OneWeb went bankrupt). Then experts said that SpaceX had no Starlink terminals... until of course pictures emerged of sites they’ve had user terminals testing for months already. So while I share the skepticism for level 5 autonomy, you should keep in mind That Musk’s companies keep accomplishing what many folks (who should know what they’re talking about) said couldn’t be done. And the more those experts say it’s impossible, the greater that Musk’s reputation soars after the task is completed nonetheless.
    - adamjcook 6y ago
      > The reason people think Elon may do level 5 autonomy is because his companies have accomplished several things that industry experts said were either infeasible or impossible. That is all well and good, but what is at issue here and in many of these comments is the deceptive/dangerous marketing around Tesla's current offerings and, implicitly, the potential dangers it presents to the public roadways. There is no progress if said "progress" is achieved unethically at any stage of its development. I think we all, deep down, know this to be true. I think Musk does not believe in that or marginalizes it (to cynically achieve business objectives) given some of his public statements and actions (snubbing the NTSB during the Mountain View investigation, taking his own hands off the wheel for a considerable period of time during an early 60 Minutes interview, several questionable statements on Twitter, glossing over the hundreds of abuses on YouTube and other social media platforms) with respect to Tesla - particularly in the past year or so. Furthermore, let us consider that developing a highly desirable electric vehicle and the technical bar to clear to achieve that pales in comparison technologically to what Musk and Tesla are promising in Level 5 autonomous driving several times (wrongly) in the past and in the near future. Level 5 Autonomy presents several unpredictable engineering unknowns that may require similarly unpredictable breakthroughs while the development of say, the Model 3, was an iterative improvement upon what was already available in the market at the time - impressive improvement though it may be.
  - Taek 6y ago
    > they fully believe Elon will solve world hunger and invent FTL space travel Well, maybe not fully believe, but certainly believe that Elon will move the needle materially in the right direction. I'd much rather spend my money on a product that supports a billionaire who is determined to save the world (Elon) than I would spend my money on a product that supports a billionaire who seems determined to take it over at any cost (Page, Brin, etc)
    - fakedang 6y ago
      And what's stopping Elon from taking over the world at any cost?
- binrec 6y ago
  Musk is a great hype man in an industry where hype is the difference between success and failure. If he'd started out in a different field, he could've been the next Tom Ford or Zaha Hadid. That's not necessarily a statement about the quality of his or his companies' work - Zaha Hadid does not make nice buildings, and I wouldn't buy a Tesla - but it's difficult to say whether Tesla would've succeeded if not for Musk's hype... and the point of great hype men is that people buy into the hype. On balance, having a hype man for [PayPal Mafia voice] innovation in the world of atoms seems like a good thing. Musk may not be the best person for the role, but you probably have to be a little crazy to want to be a celebrity in the first place.
- SuoDuanDao 6y ago
  I think people have a warped view of what a hero is. Simplistic morality stories in our entertainment have primed us to think of heroes as better than regular people, and see anyone larger than life who isn't better than regular people as a villain. In actual fact though, heroes are both better and worse than regular people. The ancient Greeks understood this, which is why their myths are still compelling today.
reubenswartz 6y ago
Have you driven one? There is plenty of (over)hype, but the cars are quite nice.
- nemothekid 6y ago
  I have, and I also adore the cars, my next car will likely be a Tesla and I own the stock. I've spent a lot of time researching the company so I didn't come to this conclusion by being bitter over the company. I think it's important to point out that the success of the company is largely built on the mythos of the man rather than the objective success of the cars. Tesla, earlier this week reached a market cap exceeding Toyota, and is larger than every other American auto manufacturer combined, despite having a fraction of the revenue. A lot of that is predicated on the "fibs" that * All the "data" being collected by Tesla cars will be used to create full autonomous driving * The battery technology will be so desirable that Tesla will sell batteries to everyone * SpaceX will put a colony on mars, and they will only drive Teslas on mars You remove Musk from the equation, and its doubtful that any other person could convince investors, fans, and potential customers that Tesla will ever accomplish of these things and tank the value of the company. If that happens it's clear that Musk will not only lose a ton of money, but ,depending on how profitable they are, they will lose their cash cow that allows Tesla to aggressively grow.
  - foobarian 6y ago
    I think I prefer not to look at stock / market cap too much in this climate of excess money sloshing around. It's just a popularity vote. What I really have to give Tesla is: they have cars; they actually make them in factories they built; they built their own battery factory; they also invest into software side of things. And lastly they invested a ton into the charger network, which initially helped them get off the ground. Other companies may have EVs but I feel they are not as invested / well matched to IC car manufacturer culture. But again, time and numbers will tell - who is actually making them, how many, and how well do they work.
    - bluGill 6y ago
lazyjones 6y ago
> The only reason people are seriously contemplating buying full electric cars today instead of the bullshit BMW produced is because Iron Man convinced enough people that electric cars will simultaneously fly to mars and cure world hunger. Is this supposed to be ironic or do you actually believe this drivel? Drive a modern EV and try again. Most Tesla owners will never go back to a noisy, smelly, crappy, slow ICE.
- Aunche 6y ago
  Have you driven a modern ICE? I rented a new Honda Accord this weekend. Besides the Model 3's crazy acceleration, and automatic lane changing, I think the Accord matches or exceeds a Model 3 in every single way, and it's roughly half the price. This isn't to say Teslas aren't impressive, but I do think they're overhyped.
  - lazyjones 6y ago
    > Besides the Model 3's crazy acceleration, and automatic lane changing, I think the Accord matches or exceeds a Model 3 in every single way Except noise, pollution, complexity/maintenance cost, OTA updates, large touchscreen navigation that gets updated continuously, having to visit gas stations etc. etc. ICE is just obsolete technology. Half the performance at 10 times the noise and infinitely more pollution.
    - obmelvin 6y ago
      > large touchscreen navigation that gets updated continuously Specifically with the model 3 I think the central touchscreen is awfully placed and dangerous as the driver
      - Zanni 6y ago
        I've got a Model 3 and a Model S. It took me about a week to get used to the central placement of the sole Model 3 screen and lack of a dashboard, but now I prefer it. The dashboard is always in my eye line yet frustrating blocked by the steering wheel. The Model 3 screen is off to the side where I can ignore it (most of the time), yet the information I need is close at hand when I want it. My impression is that it was initially a cost-saving measure, but I think it's a huge improvement over the Model S.

typon 6y ago

Are you saying people see Musk as a necessary "evil" to fight off a bigger evil (in the form of oil companies) and so they forgive his misgivings in a sort of utilitarian calculus?

nemothekid 6y ago
No. I'm saying Tesla is successful because of Elon's hype. They are not "forgiving" his misgivings, they fully believe Elon will solve world hunger and invent FTL space travel. If you ask anyone who's bought into Tesla, they will tell you the "Auto Pilot on airplanes" lie, but they also believe Elon will deliver on Level 5 Autonomous driving. No cares about electric cars, they care about the guy's company who is using electric cars as a platform to save the world.
- vvanders 6y ago
  Remove autopilot from a Model S and it's still a hell of a car. Just from a pure driving dynamics a mechanical engine can't touch a VFD in terms of power dynamics and range(which is also why Diesel-Electric locomotives use them). Don't disagree on the autopilot, the killer app has always been for me stop-and-go traffic where the speeds are lower and the sensors need to do less vision and more radar based.
  - karolist 6y ago
    Diesel-Electric locomotives do it that way because there's no clutch mechanism that would sustain the load being put on it, they have to use the magnetism for load coupling.
  - AgloeDreams 6y ago
    Short of range issues, you should drive a Taycan to see just how much better it can get. The Car lacks the infotainment tech of Tesla, the network, and the autopilot tech but from a driving dynamics and quality standpoint makes the Model S feel poor.
- Dylan16807 6y ago
  What's the autopilot on airplanes lie? If you said "misdirection" or something, I would fully understand. But what's untrue about saying that plane autopilot is pretty limited?
  - Symbiote 6y ago
    The man on the Clapham omnibus [1] thinks aeroplane autopilot pretty much flies the plane, with the pilot just watching. That's what is relevant to Tesla's marketing material, and they are surely fully aware of this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_man_on_the_Clapham_omnibus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_man_on_the_Clapham_omnibus
  - dmoy 6y ago
    It's not telling the whole truth, because the average person doesn't fly planes and has no firm grasp on how extensive a plane's autopilot is, or what the difference in situations is. What they do see is the Tesla marketing videos that hype it up to be better than it actually is. It's lying by omission.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - Dylan16807 6y ago
      On Tesla's part, it's lying by omission. In the context of someone using airplane autopilot as a defense of Tesla, they're not omitting anything. So I don't think that's a full answer to my question.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  I want to address this because in spite of Elon (whether punching down with Twitter or COVIDiocy, etc) burning up a lot of the goodwill he had accumulated in the past, these things remain: The reason people think Elon may do level 5 autonomy is because his companies have accomplished several things that industry experts said were either infeasible or impossible. Fast charging, large-battery electric cars that are faster than almost all conventional cars. Remember, pre-Tesla, electric cars were looked at as pathetic toys, like golf carts or, AT BEST, green bling like Priuses which are pretty slow and kinda ugly. And not only has Tesla ramped up to mass production of these desirable vehicles, but they’ve also done it during the ending of EV credits (which almost all their competitors still have access to!) AND crazy low gas prices. And every time, the media plays up this or that “Tesla killer” that never ends up living up to the name and often completely tanks. Every time media or experts say Tesla will fail and they don’t reinforces the view in many that Tesla is somehow special. And even SpaceX’s early successes like Falcon 1, Falcon 9, and Dragon Cargo were unprecedented for a private company and at those extremely low costs (at the time, Aerospace was a money pit for cost-inflating defense contractors, not nimble rocket startups). Then when they proposed propulsive landing, some NASA experts in the field thought it’d fail. I know one NASA GNC guy who said droneship landing is impossible. Clearly not, as we see now that it’s routine! Then Falcon Heavy, And now Dragon Crew... beating out Boeing, who had long been favored by old guard experts to beat SpaceX to ISS. Similar experts were certain SpaceX would be beat by OneWeb to launching the initial constellation... and we know how that has turns out (OneWeb went bankrupt). Then experts said that SpaceX had no Starlink terminals... until of course pictures emerged of sites they’ve had user terminals testing for months already. So while I share the skepticism for level 5 autonomy, you should keep in mind That Musk’s companies keep accomplishing what many folks (who should know what they’re talking about) said couldn’t be done. And the more those experts say it’s impossible, the greater that Musk’s reputation soars after the task is completed nonetheless.
  - adamjcook 6y ago
    > The reason people think Elon may do level 5 autonomy is because his companies have accomplished several things that industry experts said were either infeasible or impossible. That is all well and good, but what is at issue here and in many of these comments is the deceptive/dangerous marketing around Tesla's current offerings and, implicitly, the potential dangers it presents to the public roadways. There is no progress if said "progress" is achieved unethically at any stage of its development. I think we all, deep down, know this to be true. I think Musk does not believe in that or marginalizes it (to cynically achieve business objectives) given some of his public statements and actions (snubbing the NTSB during the Mountain View investigation, taking his own hands off the wheel for a considerable period of time during an early 60 Minutes interview, several questionable statements on Twitter, glossing over the hundreds of abuses on YouTube and other social media platforms) with respect to Tesla - particularly in the past year or so. Furthermore, let us consider that developing a highly desirable electric vehicle and the technical bar to clear to achieve that pales in comparison technologically to what Musk and Tesla are promising in Level 5 autonomous driving several times (wrongly) in the past and in the near future. Level 5 Autonomy presents several unpredictable engineering unknowns that may require similarly unpredictable breakthroughs while the development of say, the Model 3, was an iterative improvement upon what was already available in the market at the time - impressive improvement though it may be.
- Taek 6y ago
  > they fully believe Elon will solve world hunger and invent FTL space travel Well, maybe not fully believe, but certainly believe that Elon will move the needle materially in the right direction. I'd much rather spend my money on a product that supports a billionaire who is determined to save the world (Elon) than I would spend my money on a product that supports a billionaire who seems determined to take it over at any cost (Page, Brin, etc)
  - fakedang 6y ago
    And what's stopping Elon from taking over the world at any cost?
binrec 6y ago
Musk is a great hype man in an industry where hype is the difference between success and failure. If he'd started out in a different field, he could've been the next Tom Ford or Zaha Hadid. That's not necessarily a statement about the quality of his or his companies' work - Zaha Hadid does not make nice buildings, and I wouldn't buy a Tesla - but it's difficult to say whether Tesla would've succeeded if not for Musk's hype... and the point of great hype men is that people buy into the hype. On balance, having a hype man for [PayPal Mafia voice] innovation in the world of atoms seems like a good thing. Musk may not be the best person for the role, but you probably have to be a little crazy to want to be a celebrity in the first place.
SuoDuanDao 6y ago
I think people have a warped view of what a hero is. Simplistic morality stories in our entertainment have primed us to think of heroes as better than regular people, and see anyone larger than life who isn't better than regular people as a villain. In actual fact though, heroes are both better and worse than regular people. The ancient Greeks understood this, which is why their myths are still compelling today.

reubenswartz 6y ago

Have you driven one? There is plenty of (over)hype, but the cars are quite nice.

nemothekid 6y ago
I have, and I also adore the cars, my next car will likely be a Tesla and I own the stock. I've spent a lot of time researching the company so I didn't come to this conclusion by being bitter over the company. I think it's important to point out that the success of the company is largely built on the mythos of the man rather than the objective success of the cars. Tesla, earlier this week reached a market cap exceeding Toyota, and is larger than every other American auto manufacturer combined, despite having a fraction of the revenue. A lot of that is predicated on the "fibs" that * All the "data" being collected by Tesla cars will be used to create full autonomous driving * The battery technology will be so desirable that Tesla will sell batteries to everyone * SpaceX will put a colony on mars, and they will only drive Teslas on mars You remove Musk from the equation, and its doubtful that any other person could convince investors, fans, and potential customers that Tesla will ever accomplish of these things and tank the value of the company. If that happens it's clear that Musk will not only lose a ton of money, but ,depending on how profitable they are, they will lose their cash cow that allows Tesla to aggressively grow.
- foobarian 6y ago
  I think I prefer not to look at stock / market cap too much in this climate of excess money sloshing around. It's just a popularity vote. What I really have to give Tesla is: they have cars; they actually make them in factories they built; they built their own battery factory; they also invest into software side of things. And lastly they invested a ton into the charger network, which initially helped them get off the ground. Other companies may have EVs but I feel they are not as invested / well matched to IC car manufacturer culture. But again, time and numbers will tell - who is actually making them, how many, and how well do they work.
  - bluGill 6y ago

lazyjones 6y ago

> The only reason people are seriously contemplating buying full electric cars today instead of the bullshit BMW produced is because Iron Man convinced enough people that electric cars will simultaneously fly to mars and cure world hunger. Is this supposed to be ironic or do you actually believe this drivel? Drive a modern EV and try again. Most Tesla owners will never go back to a noisy, smelly, crappy, slow ICE.

Aunche 6y ago
Have you driven a modern ICE? I rented a new Honda Accord this weekend. Besides the Model 3's crazy acceleration, and automatic lane changing, I think the Accord matches or exceeds a Model 3 in every single way, and it's roughly half the price. This isn't to say Teslas aren't impressive, but I do think they're overhyped.
- lazyjones 6y ago
  > Besides the Model 3's crazy acceleration, and automatic lane changing, I think the Accord matches or exceeds a Model 3 in every single way Except noise, pollution, complexity/maintenance cost, OTA updates, large touchscreen navigation that gets updated continuously, having to visit gas stations etc. etc. ICE is just obsolete technology. Half the performance at 10 times the noise and infinitely more pollution.
  - obmelvin 6y ago
    > large touchscreen navigation that gets updated continuously Specifically with the model 3 I think the central touchscreen is awfully placed and dangerous as the driver
    - Zanni 6y ago
      I've got a Model 3 and a Model S. It took me about a week to get used to the central placement of the sole Model 3 screen and lack of a dashboard, but now I prefer it. The dashboard is always in my eye line yet frustrating blocked by the steering wheel. The Model 3 screen is off to the side where I can ignore it (most of the time), yet the information I need is close at hand when I want it. My impression is that it was initially a cost-saving measure, but I think it's a huge improvement over the Model S.