4 ms·
Trade safety? How? The latest cdc estimate of ifr is only 0.65%, how is that going to destroy the economy?
by matz1 6y ago
Trade safety? How? The latest cdc estimate of ifr is only 0.65%, how is that going to destroy the economy?
- HarryHirsch 6y agoConvalescence in hospitalized patients (about 20 % of patients will end up in hospital) is extremely protracted. You will end up with a torrent of people unable to work for months if not years if the disease continues to spread. The recent JAMA paper from Italy (this one: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351) is frankly terrifying.
- AlgorithmicTime 6y agoMaybe 20% of people with symptoms (though that's likely an overestimate). The number of people with a COVID infection is likely 10-12x the number of symptomatic cases.
- Latty 6y agoI mean, the thing that jumps to mind when you say that is that it seems like a myopic view of the issue. Deaths are not the only thing that hurt the economy. There is a lot of evidence of people who survive having long-term health problems that could impact their ability to work for the rest of their lives. That rate also presumably assumes certain things: if the situation gets worse, that rate could no doubt jump (e.g: if the healthcare system is overwhelmed and no one can get treatment, presumably many more people will die).
- matz1 6y agoAll disease could cause long term damage in some people. Nothing new. Do u know that hospital are frequently overwhelmed even before this pandemic? This nothing new either.
- nutjob2 6y agoFear. No-one wants to be in that 0.65%. Also with finite medical facilities that number quickly goes up to 5-10% or worse if a lot of people get sick at once. And then there is the fact that even if you don't die, the disease can be debilitating, for some for the rest of their lives.
- simmanian 6y agoCan I get source on this? Tried googling, was ineffective.