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The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps beca

The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps because we re-opened slowly and people are still generally cautious - wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. Or perhaps because we have not been getting wildly mixed messages from local/provincial/national leaders about the severity of the situation or what to do about it.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
My understanding is that Canada is currently at the stage of reopening that California is rolling back to, where gyms, indoor restaurants, and movie theaters are closed.
- AlexandrB 6y ago
  Yup, that's the case in Ontario. Mask wearing is also now mandatory indoors. I guess the question is why did California rush to re-open fully?
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    The governor's been clear that's part of the intended strategy; counties will be allowed to rush forwards as long as infection rates remain low, and then pull back if infections rise. He's consistently warned that some rollbacks should be expected.
    - QuercusMax 6y ago
      The problem with this strategy is that it's been incredibly confusing; I'm getting whiplash from all the back-and-forth. The news reporting has been bad, as well, not clearly distinguishing between statewide and per-county (or for counties on the "watch list", which changes daily). My friends who are in the service industry have to figure out from day-to-day what they're going to be doing. This is just a giant mess.
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        Yeah, I think that's fair. I've been plugged in enough that I don't feel the whiplash much, but I can't imagine how confusing it would be to understand what's happening from just scrolling through headlines in the morning.
        QuercusMax 6y ago
        ...and just this evening Santa Clara county (most of the valley) announced they're shutting down gyms and salons on Wednesday, because they expect the state will shut us down anyway. Craziness. I'm glad our state is doing something, it's just so unpredictable.
      - nogabebop23 6y ago
        It's also hard to rollback quickly when you've got a 2-week lag between when you steer the ship and when it starts to turn. I can't see how anything other than a gated approach over significant time can be preferable, unless the motivation is political (spoiler: it is).
        SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        It is, but... should it not be? Politics is the process by which people decide what society should look like.
    - Rebelgecko 6y ago
      I was happy when the state released clear metrics for what would allow a county to move onto Phase 2.5 and Phase 3 of the reopening. Initially one of the key metrics is that the county have 0 deaths and no more than 10 new coronavirus cases per 100k residents over a 2 week period. Then the number became 25 cases per 100k residents. Then it became 100 cases per 100k residents. Then my county was permitted to mostly reopen with 300+ new cases per 100k residents, in conjunction with a few hundred deaths per week. To me it's clear that we've strayed from the original emphasis on "science based" metrics.
      - guenthert 6y ago
        Which county might that be? Only Los Angeles has more than a few hundred death due to COVID total. In Santa Clara county still about 20 times as many people die every day due to unrelated causes than due to COVID. That makes it hard to justify the economic damage, which is devastating to those who lost their job and are waiting for unemployment benefits for months now.
        Rebelgecko 6y ago
        Yup, LA. I think we're currently ~50 deaths and 2500 new confirmed cases per day
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > I guess the question is why did California rush to re-open fully? Because states have a higher cost of borrowing than the feds and usually also have constitutional balanced operating budget mandates, they tend to rely on federal aid to deal with major extended emergencies. With the feds not providing substantial state aid in this crisis, there’s significant financial pressure for economic reopening.
nickff 6y ago
Canada did not act in unison, it was very province-by-province. Ontario locked down quite hard, whereas British Columbia only required shutdowns of service businesses, and suggested everyone stay in.
- AlexandrB 6y ago
  My mistake. I guess I'm specifically speaking of Ontario.
  - nogabebop23 6y ago
    Outside of Ontario & Quebec on really Vancouver and Calgary have had any notable cases. The infection rate country-wide is minor compared to California and almost all deaths are clustered in retirement and extended care facilities. Most importantly the health care system was never even close to overwhelmed. It's been a very different story than major US hotspots.
- jonwithoutanh 6y ago
  You paint an incredibly unfair picture with your comment. British Columbia shutdown hard and fast, controlled the disease well, and has daily case numbers in the single digits. Ontario fucked everything up, had massive spread in their care homes, and still has hundreds of cases a day.
DataWorker 6y ago
It was all middle ground strategy from day one. The national lockdown was timed to the nyc wave and that was a probably a mistake depending on how you view the purpose of the lockdown. If it was to flatten the curve, outside of nyc, we did too much too soon and are now reaping the effects of “precaution fatigue.” It’s a marathon rather than a sprint, but each region, has its own race to run on it’s own timeline, it’s own demographic and medical infrastructure factors.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  Or maybe it's just that the places where it spreads are indoor dining and bars, and people just won't stop overanalyzing it.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > The national lockdown was timed to the nyc wave There was no “national lockdown”. The California lockdown was timed based on the Bay Area and Los Angeles surges.
me_againnnnnn 6y ago
In SONOMA County -- Virtually 100% compliance with all mask and distance restrictions, has been absolutely amazing. I have seen NOBODY not wearing masks where required. They had a increase in case load that the county has attributed to 75% latino and has said they believe it is due to crowded housing, cramming to people into small apartments, something that has been going on here for decades. The rest they have said is directly attributed to a massive spread through nursing facilities, which was entirely expected and predictable. Since they reopened bars and indoor dining about 2 weeks ago almost nobody has opened dining rooms and the bars have been mostly empty. Now today they have closed bars, dining and things like the bowling alley. Done absolutely nothing about where the problem is and have started putting people out of business. The Casino however is open for business ! You can go smoke and play 21 in a crowd of hundreds, but can't take a shower at the gym. It's absurd how blatant they are making it about just pretending they can help. No leadership, causing great damage to so many and yet they are about to claim a great victory. Pathetic.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

My understanding is that Canada is currently at the stage of reopening that California is rolling back to, where gyms, indoor restaurants, and movie theaters are closed.

AlexandrB 6y ago
Yup, that's the case in Ontario. Mask wearing is also now mandatory indoors. I guess the question is why did California rush to re-open fully?
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  The governor's been clear that's part of the intended strategy; counties will be allowed to rush forwards as long as infection rates remain low, and then pull back if infections rise. He's consistently warned that some rollbacks should be expected.
  - QuercusMax 6y ago
    The problem with this strategy is that it's been incredibly confusing; I'm getting whiplash from all the back-and-forth. The news reporting has been bad, as well, not clearly distinguishing between statewide and per-county (or for counties on the "watch list", which changes daily). My friends who are in the service industry have to figure out from day-to-day what they're going to be doing. This is just a giant mess.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      Yeah, I think that's fair. I've been plugged in enough that I don't feel the whiplash much, but I can't imagine how confusing it would be to understand what's happening from just scrolling through headlines in the morning.
      - QuercusMax 6y ago
        ...and just this evening Santa Clara county (most of the valley) announced they're shutting down gyms and salons on Wednesday, because they expect the state will shut us down anyway. Craziness. I'm glad our state is doing something, it's just so unpredictable.
    - nogabebop23 6y ago
      It's also hard to rollback quickly when you've got a 2-week lag between when you steer the ship and when it starts to turn. I can't see how anything other than a gated approach over significant time can be preferable, unless the motivation is political (spoiler: it is).
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        It is, but... should it not be? Politics is the process by which people decide what society should look like.
  - Rebelgecko 6y ago
    I was happy when the state released clear metrics for what would allow a county to move onto Phase 2.5 and Phase 3 of the reopening. Initially one of the key metrics is that the county have 0 deaths and no more than 10 new coronavirus cases per 100k residents over a 2 week period. Then the number became 25 cases per 100k residents. Then it became 100 cases per 100k residents. Then my county was permitted to mostly reopen with 300+ new cases per 100k residents, in conjunction with a few hundred deaths per week. To me it's clear that we've strayed from the original emphasis on "science based" metrics.
    - guenthert 6y ago
      Which county might that be? Only Los Angeles has more than a few hundred death due to COVID total. In Santa Clara county still about 20 times as many people die every day due to unrelated causes than due to COVID. That makes it hard to justify the economic damage, which is devastating to those who lost their job and are waiting for unemployment benefits for months now.
      - Rebelgecko 6y ago
        Yup, LA. I think we're currently ~50 deaths and 2500 new confirmed cases per day
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > I guess the question is why did California rush to re-open fully? Because states have a higher cost of borrowing than the feds and usually also have constitutional balanced operating budget mandates, they tend to rely on federal aid to deal with major extended emergencies. With the feds not providing substantial state aid in this crisis, there’s significant financial pressure for economic reopening.

nickff 6y ago

Canada did not act in unison, it was very province-by-province. Ontario locked down quite hard, whereas British Columbia only required shutdowns of service businesses, and suggested everyone stay in.

AlexandrB 6y ago
My mistake. I guess I'm specifically speaking of Ontario.
- nogabebop23 6y ago
  Outside of Ontario & Quebec on really Vancouver and Calgary have had any notable cases. The infection rate country-wide is minor compared to California and almost all deaths are clustered in retirement and extended care facilities. Most importantly the health care system was never even close to overwhelmed. It's been a very different story than major US hotspots.
jonwithoutanh 6y ago
You paint an incredibly unfair picture with your comment. British Columbia shutdown hard and fast, controlled the disease well, and has daily case numbers in the single digits. Ontario fucked everything up, had massive spread in their care homes, and still has hundreds of cases a day.

DataWorker 6y ago

It was all middle ground strategy from day one. The national lockdown was timed to the nyc wave and that was a probably a mistake depending on how you view the purpose of the lockdown. If it was to flatten the curve, outside of nyc, we did too much too soon and are now reaping the effects of “precaution fatigue.” It’s a marathon rather than a sprint, but each region, has its own race to run on it’s own timeline, it’s own demographic and medical infrastructure factors.

perl4ever 6y ago
Or maybe it's just that the places where it spreads are indoor dining and bars, and people just won't stop overanalyzing it.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
dragonwriter 6y ago
> The national lockdown was timed to the nyc wave There was no “national lockdown”. The California lockdown was timed based on the Bay Area and Los Angeles surges.

me_againnnnnn 6y ago

In SONOMA County -- Virtually 100% compliance with all mask and distance restrictions, has been absolutely amazing. I have seen NOBODY not wearing masks where required. They had a increase in case load that the county has attributed to 75% latino and has said they believe it is due to crowded housing, cramming to people into small apartments, something that has been going on here for decades. The rest they have said is directly attributed to a massive spread through nursing facilities, which was entirely expected and predictable. Since they reopened bars and indoor dining about 2 weeks ago almost nobody has opened dining rooms and the bars have been mostly empty. Now today they have closed bars, dining and things like the bowling alley. Done absolutely nothing about where the problem is and have started putting people out of business. The Casino however is open for business ! You can go smoke and play 21 in a crowd of hundreds, but can't take a shower at the gym. It's absurd how blatant they are making it about just pretending they can help. No leadership, causing great damage to so many and yet they are about to claim a great victory. Pathetic.