43 ms·

You know what's definitely going to be valuable in a post collapse world where people are making heavy use of bug-out bunkers stashed with food and guns? A digi

by harryh 6y ago

You know what's definitely going to be valuable in a post collapse world where people are making heavy use of bug-out bunkers stashed with food and guns? A digital currency that requires a sophisticated global computer network to function. Ya. That makes a lot of sense.

pixelperfect 6y ago
The world reserve currency can collapse without all of society collapsing to the extent you are suggesting.
zxcmx 6y ago
A more charitable approach would be to consider that bitcoin and "bug out bags" can be things you have for separate or related contingencies. We live in wonderfully complex societies and history shows us there are a lot of failure modes well short of apocalypse. To be clear I'm not a "bug out bag" kind of person but I do believe that some disaster preparation is useful. I also believe that there's a modest chance of serious financial turmoil in the medium to long term future. Bitcoin is likely to hold some value in the event of a localised financial collapse.
- bioipbiop 6y ago
  What’s the advantage of bitcoin against holding a diversified bundle of global equities or foreign currency in the event of a localised financial collapse?
  - Taek 6y ago
    Bitcoin can be sent and received anywhere in the world needing no than a raspi's worth of computing power. Not many banking hoops to jump through, sanctions aren't at play, very difficult / impossible for a non-superpower country to exert control. Greece and Venezuela are both recent examples of countries where people who owned Bitcoin faired substantially better than their peers who did not.
    - tim58 6y ago
      Did people in Greece and Venezuela fair substantially better than peers that had holdings of multiple foreign currencies?
      - DarthGhandi 6y ago
        Yes, easily, though the crisis in Greece started about the same time Bitcoin was created and lasted a few years after that. The capital appreciation on this basket of global currencies has not moved an inch, interest rates worldwide are even lower today. Meanwhile BTC has averaged 250% gains annually.
  - dharma1 6y ago
    Not necessarily anything, but collapse of the dollar would have systemic impact, it wouldn't localised. And I suppose there is always some counter party risk with bank accounts or brokerage accounts, unless you hold the gold - or private keys
    - bioipbiop 6y ago
      Why would bitcoin be spared this systemic impact?
- wglb 6y ago
  I am trying to imagine how you can fit bitcoin in a bugout bag.
  - pps43 6y ago
    https://coinstop.io/products/billfodl https://coinstop.io/products/billfodl
    - wglb 6y ago
      My (poorly worded) point is that without the internet, bitcoins in your bag don't have any immediate value.
      - pps43 6y ago
        One can expect the internet to eventually come back, maybe even in form of ham radio (in a post-apocalyptic world there would not be FCC to enforce ban on encryption).
        shadowgovt 6y ago
        Of course, in a post-apocalyptic world there would also not be an FCC to enforce bans on signal jamming...
        murrayn 6y ago
        The bitcoin protocol isn't encrypted. You can use the protocol over Ham radio as it is now.
csomar 6y ago
> A digital currency that requires a sophisticated global computer network to function. That's stretching it a bit. While Bitcoin looks sophisticated to the average Joe, it is actually a very simple protocol and require very little bandwidth. It's possible to run mining operations from all over the world on very limited connection (in fact you might need to connect only a few times per day). Processing transactions also consume very little bandwidth. The crypto-folks have come up with something for you: https://blockstream.com/satellite/ https://blockstream.com/satellite/ So now even if your local infrastructure burned, you can still transact in bitcoin. Granted, there should be some guys somewhere doing the mining to ensure that the network is secure enough.
- three_seagrass 6y ago
  They're not saying that bitcoin is sophisticated (it's not), but the entire backbone of the internet is. In some post-apocalyptic dystopia, people aren't going to be using their phones and laptops to make payments with bitcoin, they're going to use whatever is backed by the local authority.
  - csomar 6y ago
    Venezuela/Brazil/North-Africa disagrees with this.
    - three_seagrass 6y ago
      Over half the transactions in Venezuela are in US Dollar cash now, not Bolivar or Bitcoin. That's not an example of a dystopia switching to Bitcoin.
  - nostrademons 6y ago
    Mesh networks over HAM radio, to tie it back to the article. ;-)
    - zelly 6y ago
      Ham radio fixes Bitcoin
Darvon 6y ago
There's a few pretty far along mesh network projects that are designed to keep internet/crypto functional over portable radio networks.
- tw04 6y ago
  And you think the average non-technical person is going to trust that over... trading for actual goods like food/fuel/livestock? On what planet does the government-backed virtual currency fail and then non-technical people suddenly trust a darknet currency backed by... imaginary computer algorithms that they don't understand and don't want to understand?
  - WanderPanda 6y ago
    Its not like all people understand the monetary system. If something works over some period people will build trust and use it
  - muzika 6y ago
    Some day every phone may have a bitcoin “wallet” that connects to nearby towers using the phones antennas. Everything will “just work” as far as regular users are concerned. You would be able to pay for good just by scanning a QR code on the other party’s phone, for example.
- mintone 6y ago
  I would imagine that that the point is less the practicalities of how it would than exist rather that commodities will become (as they always have done) the mechanism of trade. Before there was money there was just normal trade. In apocalypse land who are you going to let into your group of survivors, the guy with 10,000 bitcoin on a usb stick or the guy with 10ton of rice?
  - tim58 6y ago
    The neat thing about 10,000 bitcoins is that it can exist in your pocket.
Taek 6y ago
One of the things that makes Bitcoin so interesting is that you don't actually need that much sophistication to keep it going. In theory you should be able to run all of Bitcoin on a bunch of raspi's connected to HAM radio towers. As long as you can get blocks around the world, those raspi's should be enough to keep it running.
- croddin 6y ago
  If the bitcoin network were ever reduced to that, there would be significant risk of a dedicated miner coming online being able to do a 50% attack.
  - thinkloop 6y ago
    Why? If the attacker can get that much hash then so can the miners.
- qes 6y ago
  > In theory you should be able to run all of Bitcoin on a bunch of raspi's If suddenly the computing power available in the world was reduced to a bunch of raspi's, the Bitcoin network would be dead because it would take an inordinately long amount of time to reach the next difficulty adjustment. Only a hard fork could survive.
cft 6y ago
In Argentinian or Russian style currency defaults the computer networks continued to function. We are talking about the dollar no longer being the world reserve currency here, not a total societal collapse. It will happen when a more attractive alternative is found by the global markets. Currently the excess dollars created are absorbed by the foreign economies. This keeps the US from inflation caused by this creation. For example, Brazil has to buy dollars with its goods to then use them for purchases of IT equipment from China. At some point Brazil and China will find a direct medium of exchange. Here is what Ray Dalio has to say: https://youtu.be/7WxfQ2zKXeA?t=1076 https://youtu.be/7WxfQ2zKXeA?t=1076
- martinald 6y ago
  This idea has been going on for literally decades, with no real progress. Iran started allowing Euro trades for oil (keep in mind the EU imports way way more oil than the US) in 2003. Result = everyone still trades oil in dollars.
  - cft 6y ago
    The first effect maybe that the increasing dollar creation rate needed to sustain the functioning of American economy may exceed the ability of foreign countries to absorb them.
    - three_seagrass 6y ago
      This is just more of the usual "The Fed has really done it this time and here comes it's inevitable collapse". There will likely be inflation but it's considered better than the alternative right now which is stagflation.
  - didntknowya 6y ago
    no real progress because every time a country propose or implements a major switch from the dollar, coincidentally they get invaded and drawn into a war. switching to another currency standard is a major threat to value of the USD, and would collapse the economy more than any nuclear weapons or politics would... but that's a rabbit hole for another day.

by harryh 6y ago

pixelperfect 6y ago

The world reserve currency can collapse without all of society collapsing to the extent you are suggesting.

zxcmx 6y ago

A more charitable approach would be to consider that bitcoin and "bug out bags" can be things you have for separate or related contingencies. We live in wonderfully complex societies and history shows us there are a lot of failure modes well short of apocalypse. To be clear I'm not a "bug out bag" kind of person but I do believe that some disaster preparation is useful. I also believe that there's a modest chance of serious financial turmoil in the medium to long term future. Bitcoin is likely to hold some value in the event of a localised financial collapse.

bioipbiop 6y ago
What’s the advantage of bitcoin against holding a diversified bundle of global equities or foreign currency in the event of a localised financial collapse?
- Taek 6y ago
  Bitcoin can be sent and received anywhere in the world needing no than a raspi's worth of computing power. Not many banking hoops to jump through, sanctions aren't at play, very difficult / impossible for a non-superpower country to exert control. Greece and Venezuela are both recent examples of countries where people who owned Bitcoin faired substantially better than their peers who did not.
  - tim58 6y ago
    Did people in Greece and Venezuela fair substantially better than peers that had holdings of multiple foreign currencies?
    - DarthGhandi 6y ago
      Yes, easily, though the crisis in Greece started about the same time Bitcoin was created and lasted a few years after that. The capital appreciation on this basket of global currencies has not moved an inch, interest rates worldwide are even lower today. Meanwhile BTC has averaged 250% gains annually.
- dharma1 6y ago
  Not necessarily anything, but collapse of the dollar would have systemic impact, it wouldn't localised. And I suppose there is always some counter party risk with bank accounts or brokerage accounts, unless you hold the gold - or private keys
  - bioipbiop 6y ago
    Why would bitcoin be spared this systemic impact?
wglb 6y ago
I am trying to imagine how you can fit bitcoin in a bugout bag.
- pps43 6y ago
  https://coinstop.io/products/billfodl https://coinstop.io/products/billfodl
  - wglb 6y ago
    My (poorly worded) point is that without the internet, bitcoins in your bag don't have any immediate value.
    - pps43 6y ago
      One can expect the internet to eventually come back, maybe even in form of ham radio (in a post-apocalyptic world there would not be FCC to enforce ban on encryption).
      - shadowgovt 6y ago
        Of course, in a post-apocalyptic world there would also not be an FCC to enforce bans on signal jamming...
      - murrayn 6y ago
        The bitcoin protocol isn't encrypted. You can use the protocol over Ham radio as it is now.

csomar 6y ago

> A digital currency that requires a sophisticated global computer network to function. That's stretching it a bit. While Bitcoin looks sophisticated to the average Joe, it is actually a very simple protocol and require very little bandwidth. It's possible to run mining operations from all over the world on very limited connection (in fact you might need to connect only a few times per day). Processing transactions also consume very little bandwidth. The crypto-folks have come up with something for you: https://blockstream.com/satellite/ https://blockstream.com/satellite/ So now even if your local infrastructure burned, you can still transact in bitcoin. Granted, there should be some guys somewhere doing the mining to ensure that the network is secure enough.

three_seagrass 6y ago
They're not saying that bitcoin is sophisticated (it's not), but the entire backbone of the internet is. In some post-apocalyptic dystopia, people aren't going to be using their phones and laptops to make payments with bitcoin, they're going to use whatever is backed by the local authority.
- csomar 6y ago
  Venezuela/Brazil/North-Africa disagrees with this.
  - three_seagrass 6y ago
    Over half the transactions in Venezuela are in US Dollar cash now, not Bolivar or Bitcoin. That's not an example of a dystopia switching to Bitcoin.
- nostrademons 6y ago
  Mesh networks over HAM radio, to tie it back to the article. ;-)
  - zelly 6y ago
    Ham radio fixes Bitcoin

Darvon 6y ago

There's a few pretty far along mesh network projects that are designed to keep internet/crypto functional over portable radio networks.

tw04 6y ago
And you think the average non-technical person is going to trust that over... trading for actual goods like food/fuel/livestock? On what planet does the government-backed virtual currency fail and then non-technical people suddenly trust a darknet currency backed by... imaginary computer algorithms that they don't understand and don't want to understand?
- WanderPanda 6y ago
  Its not like all people understand the monetary system. If something works over some period people will build trust and use it
- muzika 6y ago
  Some day every phone may have a bitcoin “wallet” that connects to nearby towers using the phones antennas. Everything will “just work” as far as regular users are concerned. You would be able to pay for good just by scanning a QR code on the other party’s phone, for example.
mintone 6y ago
I would imagine that that the point is less the practicalities of how it would than exist rather that commodities will become (as they always have done) the mechanism of trade. Before there was money there was just normal trade. In apocalypse land who are you going to let into your group of survivors, the guy with 10,000 bitcoin on a usb stick or the guy with 10ton of rice?
- tim58 6y ago
  The neat thing about 10,000 bitcoins is that it can exist in your pocket.

Taek 6y ago

One of the things that makes Bitcoin so interesting is that you don't actually need that much sophistication to keep it going. In theory you should be able to run all of Bitcoin on a bunch of raspi's connected to HAM radio towers. As long as you can get blocks around the world, those raspi's should be enough to keep it running.

croddin 6y ago
If the bitcoin network were ever reduced to that, there would be significant risk of a dedicated miner coming online being able to do a 50% attack.
- thinkloop 6y ago
  Why? If the attacker can get that much hash then so can the miners.
qes 6y ago
> In theory you should be able to run all of Bitcoin on a bunch of raspi's If suddenly the computing power available in the world was reduced to a bunch of raspi's, the Bitcoin network would be dead because it would take an inordinately long amount of time to reach the next difficulty adjustment. Only a hard fork could survive.

cft 6y ago

In Argentinian or Russian style currency defaults the computer networks continued to function. We are talking about the dollar no longer being the world reserve currency here, not a total societal collapse. It will happen when a more attractive alternative is found by the global markets. Currently the excess dollars created are absorbed by the foreign economies. This keeps the US from inflation caused by this creation. For example, Brazil has to buy dollars with its goods to then use them for purchases of IT equipment from China. At some point Brazil and China will find a direct medium of exchange. Here is what Ray Dalio has to say: https://youtu.be/7WxfQ2zKXeA?t=1076 https://youtu.be/7WxfQ2zKXeA?t=1076

martinald 6y ago
This idea has been going on for literally decades, with no real progress. Iran started allowing Euro trades for oil (keep in mind the EU imports way way more oil than the US) in 2003. Result = everyone still trades oil in dollars.
- cft 6y ago
  The first effect maybe that the increasing dollar creation rate needed to sustain the functioning of American economy may exceed the ability of foreign countries to absorb them.
  - three_seagrass 6y ago
    This is just more of the usual "The Fed has really done it this time and here comes it's inevitable collapse". There will likely be inflation but it's considered better than the alternative right now which is stagflation.
- didntknowya 6y ago
  no real progress because every time a country propose or implements a major switch from the dollar, coincidentally they get invaded and drawn into a war. switching to another currency standard is a major threat to value of the USD, and would collapse the economy more than any nuclear weapons or politics would... but that's a rabbit hole for another day.