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But then why did the stock market perform so badly for so long during 2008?

ttul 6y ago
My guess: the economic problem had an uncertain path to resolution. A pandemic is different. We are waiting for a vaccine; once that is available, it’s game on. I’m not saying this is the truth; however, it is a plausible way to think that investors are viewing the future.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  Herd immunity may not work either. Today there's this article about people getting it twice and other viruses have already been known to let you get infected twice. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic...
  - kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
    > He was unable to get an antibody test after his first infection It is entirely possible the first infection was a false positive.
    - claudeganon 6y ago
      There's more than one example of possible reinfection linked in the article. >Ditchek said he encountered a second reinfected patient on Wednesday from the same family. This patient had accumulated so many antibodies from his previous COVID-19 infection that he was able to donate plasma to other coronavirus patients two times. "He'd been negative for seven weeks and sure enough was re-exposed," Ditchek said, and diagnosed positive for COVID-19 this week. https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/monmouth/news/central-jersey-doctor-reports-patients-reinfected-with-coronavirus/790555/ https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/monmouth/news/central-jers...
  - ttul 6y ago
    While it is clear that some patients have had a positive test after an initial negative test - and even a recurrence of symptoms months after the initial symptoms - it is unclear whether the positive test and/or recurrence of symptoms is from the same virus recrudescing or from a new infection. On This Week in Virology recently, they said that it would be invaluable to sequence the virus the first time around and the second time around (in patients who recrudesce) to see whether the two infections were caused by the same virus (in genetic terms), or from a new infection by a genetically different virus. Either way, it's bad if immunity only lasts a few months, for obvious reasons.
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
For a while after 2008, people weren't sure there could ever be a full recovery. To pick one issue, Lehman Brothers went from healthy to dead in basically a few months, and nobody had a good reason why this couldn't happen to any large financial institution. Maybe the risk was unavoidable, and everyone will just have to make investment decisions knowing that the financial system is at constant risk of falling over. Confidence in this area was restored when the Federal Reserve started doing what are called "stress tests" under the Dodd-Frank Act, where large financial institutions have to prove that even if things turn bad they won't collapse.

ttul 6y ago

My guess: the economic problem had an uncertain path to resolution. A pandemic is different. We are waiting for a vaccine; once that is available, it’s game on. I’m not saying this is the truth; however, it is a plausible way to think that investors are viewing the future.

NotSammyHagar 6y ago
Herd immunity may not work either. Today there's this article about people getting it twice and other viruses have already been known to let you get infected twice. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic...
- kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
  > He was unable to get an antibody test after his first infection It is entirely possible the first infection was a false positive.
  - claudeganon 6y ago
    There's more than one example of possible reinfection linked in the article. >Ditchek said he encountered a second reinfected patient on Wednesday from the same family. This patient had accumulated so many antibodies from his previous COVID-19 infection that he was able to donate plasma to other coronavirus patients two times. "He'd been negative for seven weeks and sure enough was re-exposed," Ditchek said, and diagnosed positive for COVID-19 this week. https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/monmouth/news/central-jersey-doctor-reports-patients-reinfected-with-coronavirus/790555/ https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/monmouth/news/central-jers...
- ttul 6y ago
  While it is clear that some patients have had a positive test after an initial negative test - and even a recurrence of symptoms months after the initial symptoms - it is unclear whether the positive test and/or recurrence of symptoms is from the same virus recrudescing or from a new infection. On This Week in Virology recently, they said that it would be invaluable to sequence the virus the first time around and the second time around (in patients who recrudesce) to see whether the two infections were caused by the same virus (in genetic terms), or from a new infection by a genetically different virus. Either way, it's bad if immunity only lasts a few months, for obvious reasons.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

For a while after 2008, people weren't sure there could ever be a full recovery. To pick one issue, Lehman Brothers went from healthy to dead in basically a few months, and nobody had a good reason why this couldn't happen to any large financial institution. Maybe the risk was unavoidable, and everyone will just have to make investment decisions knowing that the financial system is at constant risk of falling over. Confidence in this area was restored when the Federal Reserve started doing what are called "stress tests" under the Dodd-Frank Act, where large financial institutions have to prove that even if things turn bad they won't collapse.