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It is only a fallacy if incorrectly applied :D In some cases, it is better to continue course with known variables. Also, I wouldn't say it is non-existent. A
by salmon30salmon 6y ago
It is only a fallacy if incorrectly applied :D
In some cases, it is better to continue course with known variables.
Also, I wouldn't say it is non-existent. As I said in another response, I currently see a lot of evidence for the cross-reactive t-cell immune response causing the virus to burn out after around 25% infection rate.
- claudeganon 6y agoThere are no “known variables” under the circumstances you describe in a novel pandemic because we don’t know the long term consequences of the disease. There’s likewise no firm understanding of the duration or quality of immunity, nor will there be for probably years, making every appeal to herd immunity little more than dangerous speculation.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoBut the variables in the other direction aren't firmly known either. We don't know that suppression can be maintained in the medium term, and we don't know that a vaccine will be able to eliminate the virus in the long term. We have no option but to make choices based on dangerous speculation.
- salmon30salmon 6y agoWe don't know the long term consequences of completely shutting down a majority of society for an unknown period of time, including depriving children of an education. So let's not compare unknowns. This whole thing is an unknown and we need to accept some risk in each direction or be motionless.