3 ms·

This is bad advice. We have no idea if it can be caught twice. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-st

This is bad advice. We have no idea if it can be caught twice. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-co...

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
We know that some process has caused deaths to drop to near-zero in the places that were disaster zones at the beginning of April, even though they're no longer shut down and haven't entirely eliminated the virus. It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. (Of course, since I'm sure I'll be called on this, the fact that herd immunity is possible does not by itself prove it's a wise course of action.)
- nkurz 6y ago
  > It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. The first paragraph of the article amiga_500 linked says: "People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds." I don't think there is significant doubt that immunity exists; the question is how long it remains in effect. The drop in deaths that you mention would be compatible with a several month long effective immunity period, but a herd immunity approach would probably not work well if reinfection is possible every year.
- amiga_500 6y ago
  Poor quality stuff. If this can be caught again, there is no natural herd immunity.
- notacoward 6y ago
  > It's hard to imagine Hard for who? This is Epidemiology 101 stuff. You don't have to totally eliminate a virus to go back to normal. If the few infected individuals are quickly identified and isolated, along with contacts, outbreaks can be contained quite well. Test, trace, and isolate. We've been managing many other diseases this way for years. There's little mystery to it.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    The mystery is that the drop happened even in areas such as Sweden which did not do this.
    - amiga_500 6y ago
      People in Sweden did social distance, did stop going out to bars and cafes etc.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

We know that some process has caused deaths to drop to near-zero in the places that were disaster zones at the beginning of April, even though they're no longer shut down and haven't entirely eliminated the virus. It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. (Of course, since I'm sure I'll be called on this, the fact that herd immunity is possible does not by itself prove it's a wise course of action.)

nkurz 6y ago
> It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. The first paragraph of the article amiga_500 linked says: "People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds." I don't think there is significant doubt that immunity exists; the question is how long it remains in effect. The drop in deaths that you mention would be compatible with a several month long effective immunity period, but a herd immunity approach would probably not work well if reinfection is possible every year.
amiga_500 6y ago
Poor quality stuff. If this can be caught again, there is no natural herd immunity.
notacoward 6y ago
> It's hard to imagine Hard for who? This is Epidemiology 101 stuff. You don't have to totally eliminate a virus to go back to normal. If the few infected individuals are quickly identified and isolated, along with contacts, outbreaks can be contained quite well. Test, trace, and isolate. We've been managing many other diseases this way for years. There's little mystery to it.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  The mystery is that the drop happened even in areas such as Sweden which did not do this.
  - amiga_500 6y ago
    People in Sweden did social distance, did stop going out to bars and cafes etc.